Strategies

A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.

Adaptive volatility-based leveraged Nasdaq strategy (V3) by u/Wongkok. Uses QQQ realized volatility, volatility ratio, SPY 200-day SMA, credit spreads (HYG/LQD), and Donchian channel exits to shift between TQQQ (3x), QLD (2x), and defensive rotation (TLT/GLD/XLU/XLE). Credit to u/Wongkok and u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD.

Accelerating dual momentum averaging 1/3/6-month returns to rank US vs international small-cap equities. Winner must show positive momentum; otherwise the best Treasury bond is selected. 100% single-asset allocation. Monthly rebalancing.

Momentum selection with risk-based sizing. Ranks 10 global assets by 6-month momentum, selects the top 5, then weights them by inverse 20-day volatility. Combines return-chasing with volatility-aware position sizing. Monthly rebalancing.

Bill Sadek's weekly Dual Momentum strategy. Each Friday, ranks a 12-ETF universe (MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI) by a composite of 1/3/6/9-month rank-order momentum. Holds the top asset 100% only if it beats VWEHX (Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond) on the same composite metric, otherwise moves to cash (BIL). Exact port of Bill's Portfolio Visualizer model.

Canary-based regime detection using weighted multi-period breadth momentum on four assets. Offense ranks by SMA(12) relative momentum; defense selects top bonds with underperformer replacement. Aggressive and Balanced variants. Monthly rebalancing.

Daily rebalancing. RSI/SMA hysteresis strategy on QQQ with four regimes: Oversold triggers leveraged long; Overheated triggers inverse; above SMA triggers momentum allocation; below SMA triggers risk-off. Path-dependent state machine.

Four independent 25% dual-momentum modules (Equities, Credit, Real Estate, Stress). Each module picks its relative momentum winner, then applies an absolute filter vs T-bills. Broadly diversified across asset classes. Monthly rebalancing.

Holds 60% SPY and rotates the 40% defensive sleeve monthly into the strongest of TLT, GLDM or PDBC by 1/3/6/12-month momentum. A regime-adaptive replacement for the fixed bond ballast in a classic 60/40.

Defensive-first approach ranking 4 safe-haven assets (bonds, gold, commodities, dollar) by multi-period momentum. Assets underperforming T-bills are replaced by equities. Inverts the typical offense-first TAA paradigm. Monthly rebalancing.

Core-satellite of 2x Nasdaq (QLD) and market-neutral anti-beta (BTAL). Core holds both equal-weight; the satellite switches into BTAL when its own 1/3/6/12-month momentum beats T-bills, otherwise QLD. A higher-risk diversifier that uses anti-beta strength as an early risk-off signal.

Simple trend-following rule using SPY's 200-day SMA as regime filter. Above SMA holds 100% equities; below SMA rotates to the best-performing bond by 3-month return from a four-ETF universe. Monthly rebalancing.

Top-decile US momentum with a 10-month SMA trend filter. Holds the momentum sleeve (SPMO) while it trades above its 10-month moving average, and 10-year Treasuries (IEF) otherwise. The Fama-French momentum portfolio extends the backtest to 1927.

Trend-filtered multi-asset momentum rotation. Uses SPY 200-day SMA for regime detection, 8-month return for asset selection, absolute momentum filter, and inverse-volatility weighting. Risk-off: IEF/GLD. Cherry-picks ideas from PAA, VAA, Dual Momentum, and EAA.

Dual-canary crash protection with three-tier allocation. VWO and BND momentum controls a 0/50/100% bond fraction; offense selects top 6 of 12 global assets by weighted multi-period momentum. Monthly rebalancing.

Four independent 25% pods (equity, bonds, real assets, alternatives) each applying relative then absolute dual momentum vs T-bills. Losers rotate to cash. Broad diversification with momentum overlay. Monthly rebalancing.

Bill Sadek's Dynamic Macro Allocation model. 7-ETF macro universe, multi-period performance-weighted momentum (1/3/6/9 months, 25% each), top-2 selection with Geometric Increasing weights (67%/33%), 6-month SMA trend filter per selected asset (failed assets move to cash). Monthly rebalance.

Multi-factor scoring combining return, low correlation, and low volatility. Cash fraction scales elastically with the number of assets showing negative momentum. Selects top 3 assets by composite score. Monthly rebalancing.

Global Equities Momentum (GEM) is Gary Antonacci's dual-momentum strategy: each month it holds US stocks, international stocks, or bonds, whichever has the strongest trend, and rotates fully to bonds when equities weaken. One asset at a time, rebalanced monthly.

Randy Harris's variant of Generalized Protective Momentum (GPM), the breadth-and-correlation crash-protection strategy created by Wouter Keller and Jan Willem Keuning. Correlation-based selection across 11 risky assets with a modified re-entry formula for quicker equity exposure after drawdowns; top 3 by score, with the safety fraction scaling to market breadth. Monthly rebalancing.

Trend-following across five major asset classes (US stocks, intl stocks, REITs, bonds, commodities). Each asset held only when above its 10-month SMA; below-trend slices move to cash. Equal-weighted. Monthly rebalancing.

Extends the LT Gain framework with an international equity check -- VXUS can displace US equities when trending stronger. Smart Leverage activates after 15% drawdowns. Treasury Duration Limiter handles risk-off. Monthly rebalancing.

Cross-asset momentum strategy investing in gold only when both gold and intermediate bonds show positive 12-month momentum. Dual confirmation reduces false signals. 100% single-asset switching between gold and cash. Monthly rebalancing.

Two-state daily tactical allocation on a Golden-Ratio-style risk-parity sleeve (SPMO momentum, VBR small value, DBMF managed futures, GLD gold, TLT long treasuries). When BOTH SPY and the TIP canary (VIPSX) are firmly above their 200-day SMA, it holds 50% UPRO on top of the sleeve at half weight; otherwise it drops UPRO and holds the sleeve at full weight. Risk-On and Risk-Off share the same sleeve, so only UPRO is added or removed, which keeps whipsaw turnover low. The strategy is never in cash, so a false de-lever signal costs only the leverage, not a flat return. The TIP canary steps the strategy out of leverage in inflation/rates regimes the SPY 200-SMA alone misses. BestFolio uses VIPSX as the TIP signal series for longer clean history, and its honest history is bounded near 2007 by the managed-futures proxy.

Macro regime rotation based on growth (SPY 200d SMA) and inflation (sector relative performance). Classifies the economy into 4 quadrants and allocates to the sector ETF that historically performs best in each regime. Inflation signal derived from relative strength of inflation-positive sectors (XLE/XLB/XLI/XLF) vs inflation-negative sectors (XLU/XLV/XLP/XLY).

Dual-signal regime strategy using HYG/IEF ratio as a growth proxy and SPY 200-day SMA as a trend filter. Both bullish holds 100% equities; one bullish gives 50/50; neither holds 100% bonds. Monthly rebalancing.

Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) is Wouter Keller's tactical strategy: a single TIP canary gates risk-on or risk-off, and when risk-on it holds the top 4 assets by 13612 momentum (the 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns, equally weighted) from a broad multi-asset universe, rotating to the best of bonds or cash when the canary turns negative. Monthly rebalancing.

Five-asset equal-weight portfolio (US stocks, intl stocks, REITs, bonds, commodities) with a 200-day SMA trend filter. Below-trend assets shift to cash, providing systematic downside protection. Monthly rebalancing.

Defensive adaptive allocation using Treasury canary assets (SHY, IEF) for regime detection. All canaries positive triggers top-N offensive momentum picks; any negative switches to equal-weight defensive bonds. Monthly rebalancing.

Low-maintenance allocation with a permanent 75% core (value stocks, gold, bonds) plus a 25% growth sleeve. The growth sleeve rotates to cash only when both unemployment rises and equities trend below their SMA. Monthly rebalancing.

Single-asset momentum strategy comparing US large cap vs T-bills by composite 1/3/6-month score. Smart Leverage activates 2x/3x after 15% drawdowns. Risk-off uses Treasury Duration Limiter for bond selection. Monthly rebalancing.

Three-state daily tactical allocation driven by two SMA-with-buffer signals on SPY and VIPSX (Vanguard TIPS fund, used as the inflation/rates macro signal). When SPY is firmly above its 200-day SMA (+4%), holds a leveraged Risk-On bucket: 50% UPRO, 25% UGL, 25% TLT. When SPY is firmly below (-4%) OR VIPSX drops below its own 200-day SMA (-1%), shifts to a defensive Risk-Off bucket: 50% IEF, 25% GLD, 25% DBMF. Otherwise holds 100% SPY. The dual signal lets the strategy step aside in inflationary regimes the SPY 200-SMA alone misses; the 2022 rate shock is the year where the TIP signal earns its keep. BestFolio uses UGL (real 2x gold ETF) in Risk-On instead of a synthetic 3x gold (no real US ETF exists for 3x gold) to keep the strategy fully replicable for US retail.

Momentum rotation across 9 diversified ETFs spanning US large/small cap, international, EM, REITs, commodities, gold, and bonds. Holds the top 3 by 5-month return, equal-weighted. Natural defensive rotation. Monthly rebalancing.

Minimum-correlation momentum strategy. Picks 5 momentum leaders from a 14-asset global universe (composite 1/3/6/12-month score), then selects the 3 with lowest pairwise correlation over a 252-day window. Equal-weighted with absolute-momentum cash filter, monthly rebalance.

Long-only multi-asset momentum from Zambrano & Rizzolo (SSRN #4199648). Aggregates 9 signals (3 momentum measures × 3 lookbacks) to reduce specification risk. Correlation-adjusted scoring penalizes correlated assets. Top 5 equal-weight from 13-asset universe with absolute momentum filter and protective cash fraction. Monthly rebalance.

Breadth-based crash protection across 12 risky assets. The fraction with positive SMA momentum determines the bond buffer -- more negative assets means more IEF protection. Remaining capital goes to top momentum picks. Monthly rebalancing.

Simple monthly rotation between stocks (SPY) and bonds (TLT). Holds whichever asset has the higher 3-month total return. 100% single-asset allocation at all times. Minimal complexity, maximum conviction. Monthly rebalancing.

Momentum rotation across 13 diversified ETFs spanning equities, REITs, commodities, and bonds. Holds the top 3 by average 3/6/12-month return, equal-weighted. Broader universe than Mama Bear for more diversification. Monthly rebalancing.

Classic four-quadrant allocation: 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Designed to perform in any economic environment. Optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA filter to shift below-trend assets to cash. Monthly rebalancing.

Ranks 7 diversified ETFs by composite momentum (average of 1/3/6/12-month returns). Top 3 with positive momentum are held equal-weighted; negative-momentum slots rotate to cash. Straightforward multi-asset momentum. Monthly rebalancing.

Risk parity allocation across gold, small cap value, and intermediate Treasuries using inverse-volatility weighting. Optional 200-day SMA trend filter excludes below-trend assets. Cash when nothing qualifies. Monthly rebalancing.

Three-asset inverse-vol risk-parity core (SPY / TLT / GLD), each asset independently tilted by its own trend: uptrend full weight, neutral half, downtrend to cash. A long-only retail substitute for a futures trend program. Built as long-history all-weather / regime insurance: the per-asset tilt roughly thirds the drawdown versus a static core over 1972+, with the edge concentrated in trending, divergent regimes rather than the calm modern era. Monthly rebalance.

Leveraged All-Weather portfolio with per-asset SMA timing. Nine leveraged ETF slots spanning US/intl equities, gold, and utilities, each timed independently. Assets failing their SMA shift to configurable defense. Monthly rebalancing.

Multi-signal regime detection system for SSO/SHV rotation. Monitors 6 macro indicators (price trend, VIX, ADX, credit spreads, canary assets, breadth) to build a composite score. Uses time-based confirmation (15-day slow exit, 3-day fast exit) to avoid whipsaws while catching structural bear markets.

Risk parity meets trend-following. Three assets (QQQ, GLD, TLT) filtered by 200-day SMA; qualifying assets are allocated by inverse 60-day volatility. No qualifiers triggers 100% cash. Concentrated but adaptive. Monthly rebalancing.

Five-asset equal-weight allocation (US/intl stocks, REITs, commodities, gold) with absolute momentum filter. Any asset with negative 12-month return is replaced by the best-performing safe bond ETF. Monthly rebalancing.

Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek. Designed to fully participate in advancing markets while stepping aside from sustained drawdowns. Its infrequent trading cadence (approximately one round-trip every 2.5 years in historical data) also yields better-than-average tax efficiency, since most holding periods qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) defines the band center. A 3-day SMA of SPY close acts as the price proxy. Bands are set at +3% (upper) and -5% (lower) around the 200 SMA. When the 3-day crosses above the upper band, the portfolio moves to 100% SPY; when it crosses below the lower band, it moves to 100% cash (BIL). Positions are held between the bands, so corrections down to 5% below the 200 SMA are treated as noise rather than a signal: this is what produces the low turnover. The asymmetric thresholds (+3% up / -5% down) encode the premise that downside breaks are more reliable than upside breakouts, so the strategy requires a deeper move below trend to trigger an exit than it requires above trend to trigger an entry. The extra distance on the downside filters out normal pullbacks that would otherwise cause whipsaws.

Monthly sector rotation across 8 US SPDR sector ETFs. Ranks each sector by 1/3/6/12-month average momentum and holds the top N (default 3). Optional 10-month SMA absolute filter routes failed sectors to cash. Deep-history backfill via Fama-French sector portfolios.

Two independent 50% sub-portfolios using different momentum lookbacks: one based on 12-month momentum, one on short-term (1/3/6-month average). Each picks a single winner from 6 assets spanning equities, gold, TIPS, and cash. Monthly rebalance.

Asymmetric SPY 200-day SMA band that switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x (TQQQ) and 1x (QQQ). When SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA, hold 100% TQQQ; when it closes more than 3% below, drop to 100% QQQ. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash. An optional blow-off-top guard (off in the standard variant) can deleverage when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA. Single-asset 3x leverage on the aggressive leg makes this a high-drawdown satellite, not a core.

A dual-confirmation trend band that switches between 3x Nasdaq-100 and long US Treasuries. Go risk-on only when SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA AND the Nasdaq-100 is not more than 3% below its own 200-day SMA, holding 60% TQQQ / 40% TLT. Go risk-off (100% TLT) when either index closes more than 3% below its SMA. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). Unlike the single-gate SPY band, the defensive leg flees to Treasuries rather than staying in the underlying, and a second gate on the Nasdaq blocks re-leveraging when tech diverges weak. High-drawdown leveraged satellite, not a core.

Leveraged trend-following using SPY 200-day SMA with QQQ/SPY relative strength. Three regimes: QQQ outperforms triggers leveraged Nasdaq/managed futures; SPY wins triggers return stacking; below trend triggers diversified defense. Monthly.

Tactical overlay on the classic 25/25/25/25 Permanent Portfolio. Assets with negative 12-month returns are replaced by cash, adding momentum-based protection while preserving the core all-weather structure. Monthly rebalancing.

Two-sleeve monthly rotation: 60% in the best-momentum equity ETF (or cash if none outperforms) and 40% in the stronger bond ETF. Uses 3-month return lookback across US large, mid, small cap, and Nasdaq. Monthly rebalancing.

Russell-style momentum rotation comparing large/mid/small cap equities by composite 1/3/6-month score vs T-bills. Risk-off uses a Treasury Duration Limiter that dynamically selects long or short bonds based on TLT momentum. Monthly rebalancing.

Four-sleeve TAA using 7-month SMA distance metric across US large cap, mid/international, commodities, and bonds. Smart Leverage variants substitute 2x/3x on the equity sleeve after 15% drawdowns. Monthly rebalancing.

Dynamically optimizes the stocks/bonds split by maximizing a modified Sharpe ratio (Return / Vol^2.5) over a 72-day lookback. Tests every 5% allocation increment between SPY and TLT to find the optimal mix. Monthly rebalancing.

Breadth-momentum strategy that invests offensively only when all four assets (US, intl, EM, bonds) show positive weighted multi-period momentum. A single negative score triggers 100% rotation into the best defensive bond. Monthly rebalancing.

⚠️ THE LEVERAGED VARIANT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL/COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY: we strongly advise against running it with real money. Daily VIX regime allocator. Uses 10-day VIX SMA to shift between equities, managed futures, and gold. Contrarian panic reversal at extremes.

Holds 2x Nasdaq-100 (QLD) only while the Nasdaq is above its 200-day moving average (3-day confirmed), sized to a target volatility reassessed monthly, otherwise T-bills (BIL). A continuous-risk-control take on leveraged Nasdaq: it captures most of the upside while the trend gate sidesteps the catastrophic leveraged drawdowns (raw 2x QQQ buy-and-hold lost about 99% in the dot-com crash).

Leveraged dual-engine portfolio: 50% inverse-volatility risk parity across 3x ETFs (SPXL/TQQQ/TMF) plus 50% momentum rotation among 8 hedge candidates. High-conviction leveraged approach. Monthly rebalancing.

Pure US equity benchmark. 100% Vanguard Total Stock Market. Essential for comparing any balanced or tactical strategy.

Multi-asset all-weather allocation inspired by the Artemis Dragon Portfolio: equities + small cap value + managed futures + long zero-coupon treasuries + gold. The 4-3-2-1 ratio balances growth and crisis alpha.

Designed for all economic seasons: 30% stocks, 55% bonds, 15% commodities. The retail version of Bridgewater's risk-parity approach.

Static 4-ETF allocation designed as a better 60/40: US large cap, total bonds, managed futures, and gold. Bamboo+/++ variants activate Smart Leverage (2x/3x) on the equity portion after 15% drawdowns. Annual rebalancing.

The most popular lazy portfolio: US stocks, international stocks, and US bonds. Simple, diversified, low-cost.

The benchmark for balanced portfolios: 60% US stocks, 40% US bonds. Every other allocation is measured against this.

Defensive 5-ETF portfolio using defensive equity sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) plus treasuries and gold.

Conservative 7-fund portfolio: 40% bonds, 60% equities diversified across large, small, value, international, and REITs.

Rick Ferri's 4-fund portfolio: 48% US stocks, 24% international, 20% bonds, 8% REITs.

US equities paired with managed futures and gold for genuine diversification across regimes. 30% VTI (total US market), 20% QQQ (Nasdaq-100 growth), 35% KMLM (managed futures trend-following), and 15% GLD (gold). The managed-futures sleeve is the one diversifier that tends to profit when stocks and bonds fall together, as in 2022. Rebalanced monthly.

Global equity benchmark: 60% US, 40% international. Approximating market-cap weights.

Five equal 20% slices: total market, small-cap value, long bonds, short bonds, and gold. Exceptional risk-adjusted returns.

Multi-asset portfolio blending growth equities, value factor, long treasuries, gold, managed futures, and cash. The allocation follows golden ratio proportions across uncorrelated asset classes. Managed futures provide crisis alpha while small-cap value adds a return premium. Since 1992: 9.3% CAGR, -17.3% max DD, 1.18 Sortino.

A popular 2x leveraged static portfolio: 50% SSO (2x S&P 500), 25% ZROZ (extended-duration Treasuries), 25% GLD (gold). Leveraged history uses BestFolio's calibrated synthetic-leverage cost model, so the backtest is intentionally a few points below testfol.io. A static, quarterly-rebalanced baseline, not a tactical strategy.

A popular 3x leveraged static portfolio: 50% UPRO (3x S&P 500), 25% ZROZ (extended-duration Treasuries), 25% GLD (gold). Leveraged history uses BestFolio's calibrated synthetic-leverage cost model, so the backtest is intentionally a few points below testfol.io. A static, quarterly-rebalanced baseline, not a tactical strategy.

A popular 3x leveraged static portfolio with a managed-futures sleeve: 40% UPRO (3x S&P 500), 20% ZROZ (extended-duration Treasuries), 20% GLD (gold), 20% KMLM (managed futures). Leveraged history uses BestFolio's calibrated synthetic-leverage cost model, so the backtest is intentionally a few points below testfol.io. A static, quarterly-rebalanced baseline, not a tactical strategy.

Equal-weight 4-fund portfolio: 25% each to US large-cap, US small-cap, international, and bonds.

Classic 4x25% allocation: stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Covers prosperity, deflation, inflation, and recession.

Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation. Each leg is a return-stacked ETF (NTSX, GDE, RSST) or a long-duration Treasury sleeve (ZROZ), giving roughly 1.4x effective exposure with broad diversification across return regimes. Weights (20/20/30/30) selected to maximize Sharpe over a 1986-2026 backtest sweep using synthetic pre-inception history for the stacked ETFs.

Ultra-simple 2-fund portfolio: 75% US total market, 25% bonds. Hugely popular in the FIRE community.

Simplified Yale endowment for individuals: 50% stocks, 30% bonds (treasuries + TIPS), 20% REITs.