Who created the Growth-Inflation Sector Timing strategy?

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing was developed by Inspired by David Varadi (CSS Analytics). It is based on Inspired by Varadi, D. (CSS Analytics). Growth-Inflation Sector Timing.

What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Growth-Inflation Sector Timing?

Backtested from 1987-10-30 to 2026-08-19, Growth-Inflation Sector Timing returned 15.1% CAGR with a -38.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.86. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How often is Growth-Inflation Sector Timing rebalanced?

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.

Is Growth-Inflation Sector Timing a tactical asset allocation strategy?

Yes. Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing

Name: Growth-Inflation Sector Timing, Backtest Time Series
Creator: BestFolio
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence: Monthly
Backtest data through: 2026-08-19
History boundary: The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach: 1. Growth signal: SPY > 200-day SMA = high growth, below = low growth 2. Inflation signal: (XLE+XLB+XLI+XLF) / (XLU+XLV+XLP+XLY) ratio > its 200-day SMA = high inflation 3. High Growth + High Inflation → 100% XLE (Reflation) 4. High…
BestFolio supplies: the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action: Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions: net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness: The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action: First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing at a glance

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Inspired by David Varadi (CSS Analytics) across Energy, Technology, Materials, Healthcare, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1987-10-30 to 2026-08-19 (38.7 years): 15.1% CAGR, 0.86 Sharpe, -38.9% max drawdown, 20.5% volatility.

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Author: Inspired by David Varadi (CSS Analytics)
Rebalancing: Monthly
Risk: Aggressive
Period: 1987-10-30 to 2026-08-19
CAGR: 15.1%
Sharpe: 0.86
Max Drawdown: -38.9%
Volatility: 20.5%

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is a macro regime rotation strategy inspired by David Varadi of CSS Analytics. It classifies the economic environment into four quadrants based on growth and inflation signals, then allocates to the sector ETF that historically performs best in that regime.

Growth signal: SPY vs 200-day SMA. Inflation signal: ratio of inflation-positive sectors (XLE, XLB, XLI, XLF) to inflation-negative sectors (XLU, XLV, XLP, XLY) vs its 200-day SMA.

Growth-Inflation Sector Timing: frequently asked questions

What is Growth-Inflation Sector Timing?: Macro regime rotation based on growth (SPY 200d SMA) and inflation (sector relative performance). Classifies the economy into 4 quadrants and allocates to the sector ETF that historically performs best in each regime. Inflation signal derived from relative strength of inflation-positive sectors (XLE/XLB/XLI/XLF) vs inflation-negative sectors (XLU/XLV/XLP/XLY).
Who created the Growth-Inflation Sector Timing strategy?: Growth-Inflation Sector Timing was developed by Inspired by David Varadi (CSS Analytics). It is based on Inspired by Varadi, D. (CSS Analytics). Growth-Inflation Sector Timing.
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Growth-Inflation Sector Timing?: Backtested from 1987-10-30 to 2026-08-19, Growth-Inflation Sector Timing returned 15.1% CAGR with a -38.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.86. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Growth-Inflation Sector Timing rebalanced?: Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Growth-Inflation Sector Timing a tactical asset allocation strategy?: Yes. Growth-Inflation Sector Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1987-10-30 to 2026-08-19)

Metric	Growth-Inflation Sector Timing
CAGR	15.1%
Max Drawdown	-38.9%
Sharpe	0.86
Sortino	1.44
Volatility	20.5%
Calmar	0.39
Total Return	22820.3%
Backtest Period	38.7 years

Strategy Details

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing: monthly
Risk Level: aggressive
Variants: 2
Author: Inspired by David Varadi (CSS Analytics)
Source: Inspired by Varadi, D. (CSS Analytics). Growth-Inflation Sector Timing

Asset Classes

Energy
Technology
Materials
Healthcare
Consumer Staples

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