RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure)
Each sleeve is checked against its own SMA signal (lookbacks 2 to 8 months). Backtest max drawdown: -76.8%.
Extreme risk: not investable
This strategy's worst historical drawdown is about -77%, a near-total loss from peak. It is published for research and illustration only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, and you should not allocate capital you are not prepared to lose almost entirely.
That fall came on Oct 17, 1990, a simulated 3x. Since UTSL launched (May 3, 2017), the worst fall was -46%. This warning uses the full history.
This warning is about holding it on its own. Inside some diversified BestFolio portfolios a strategy like this appears only as a small, capped sleeve, where its risk is bounded and offset by holdings that behave differently.
For lower-risk, diversified strategies, browse the full catalog.
Strategy & methodology
Each sleeve is checked against its own SMA signal (lookbacks 2 to 8 months); Bullish signal: hold the leveraged ETF at its target weight; Bearish signal: rotate that sleeve's weight into the defensive allocation; Gold uses a 2-month vs…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2022; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-04-17.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1985
- 26.2% a year, worst fall -55.9% (Oct 17, 1990, a simulated 3x)
- Since UTSL launched (May 3, 2017)
- 14.2% a year, worst fall -46.1% (Nov 10, 2023)
Still partly simulated until Sep 2019: AVDE, AVEM and GLDM are reconstructed before their own launch.
Stand-in funds and until when (11)
- AVDE: EFA before Sep 26, 2019
- AVEM: EEM before Sep 19, 2019
- GLDM: GLD before Jun 26, 2018
- UTSL: simulated 3x XLU before May 3, 2017
- EURL: simulated 3x VGK before Jan 22, 2014
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
- UPRO: simulated 3x SPY before Jun 25, 2009
- TMF: simulated 3x TLT before Apr 16, 2009
- MIDU: simulated 3x IJH before Jan 8, 2009
- EDC: simulated 3x EEM before Dec 30, 2008
- UGL: simulated 2x GLD before Dec 3, 2008
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Each sleeve is checked against its own SMA signal (lookbacks 2 to 8 months). Backtest max drawdown: -76.8%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Is RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) still working in 2026?
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) returned -1.87% over the trailing 12 months and 98.16% over 36 months through 2026-10-22, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 26.21%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -55.86%. The full sample contains 10652 daily NAV observations from 1985-01-01. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-22 it is -19.12% below its high-water mark of 2026-02-25, 8 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.9 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | -1.87% | Not annualized | -22.93% | 252 | 2025-10-22 to 2026-10-22 |
| Trailing 36 months | 98.16% | Not annualized | -23.61% | 754 | 2023-10-20 to 2026-10-22 |
| Full backtest | 1684522.46% | 26.21% | -55.86% | 10652 | 1985-01-01 to 2026-10-22 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-02-25, 8 months before 2026-10-22, and it is -19.12% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.9 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) at a glance
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by RNAProf across US Equity (3x), US Mid-Cap (3x), Tech (3x), International (3x), rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1992-01-31 to 2026-04-17 (34.3 years): 26.8% CAGR, 0.85 Sharpe, -76.8% max drawdown, 33.7% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- RNAProf
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1992-01-31 to 2026-04-17
- CAGR
- 26.8%
- Sharpe
- 0.85
- Max Drawdown
- -76.8%
- Volatility
- 33.7%
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) is a leveraged All-Weather-style portfolio with per-asset SMA timing. Nine sleeves use 2x/3x leveraged ETFs (UPRO 32%, MIDU 14%, TQQQ 7%, EURL 7%, AVDE 6%, EDC 7%, AVEM 6%, UGL 10%, UTSL 11%), each timed independently against its own SMA signal. Sleeves that fall below trend rotate into a defensive allocation instead of holding the leveraged ETF.
Two variants are available on BestFolio: Adaptive Defense (defensive leg cascades TMF, then GLD, then BIL depending on which is trending up) and Conservative / Partial Delever (splits the bearish sleeve 50/50 between the 1x underlying and the adaptive defense cascade). The original Full (9-sleeve, TMF-only defense) and Simplified (5-sleeve, TMF-only defense) variants have been removed because their backtested drawdowns were severe enough that we consider them unsuitable for real-money use.
RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure): frequently asked questions
- What is RNAProf's Excellent Adventure?
- Leveraged All-Weather portfolio with per-asset SMA timing. Nine leveraged ETF slots spanning US/intl equities, gold, and utilities, each timed independently. Assets failing their SMA shift to configurable defense. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) strategy?
- RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) was developed by RNAProf.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure)?
- Backtested from 1992-01-31 to 2026-04-17, RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) returned 26.8% CAGR with a -76.8% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.85. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) rebalanced?
- RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1992-01-31 to 2026-04-17)
| Metric | RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 26.8% |
| Max Drawdown | -76.8% |
| Sharpe | 0.85 |
| Sortino | 1.45 |
| Volatility | 33.7% |
| Calmar | 0.35 |
| Total Return | 340850.8% |
| Backtest Period | 34.3 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 4
- Author
- RNAProf
Asset Classes
- US Equity (3x)
- US Mid-Cap (3x)
- Tech (3x)
- International (3x)
- Emerging Markets (3x)
- Gold (2x)
- Utilities (3x)
- Long Treasuries (3x)
- Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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Versions we tested and didn't ship
We ran these against this strategy and left them out. The numbers and reasons are in our rejection log.
- RPEA Full and Simplified: 2x and 3x funds rotating into TMF
Sending every bearish sleeve to 3x Treasuries lost 76% in 2022 and never recovered, so both versions were removed.