SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)
View this strategy's rules and backtest. Backtest max drawdown: -34.0%.
Strategy & methodology
Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek.
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2005; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-19.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (1)
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
View this strategy's rules and backtest. Backtest max drawdown: -34.0%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 0ab72df9, published 2026-10-17
Is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) still working in 2026?
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) returned 16.61% over the trailing 12 months and 58.75% over 36 months through 2026-10-19, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 10.75%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -34.01%. The full sample contains 10330 daily NAV observations from 1985-10-17. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-19 it is -1.62% below its high-water mark of 2026-10-06, 13 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.2 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 16.61% | Not annualized | -8.88% | 252 | 2025-10-17 to 2026-10-19 |
| Trailing 36 months | 58.75% | Not annualized | -19.28% | 752 | 2023-10-19 to 2026-10-19 |
| Full backtest | 6488.93% | 10.75% | -34.01% | 10330 | 1985-10-17 to 2026-10-19 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-10-06, 13 days before 2026-10-19, and it is -1.62% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.2 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) at a glance
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-10-17 to 2026-10-19 (41.0 years): 10.7% CAGR, 0.63 Sharpe, -34.0% max drawdown, 13.2% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1985-10-17 to 2026-10-19
- CAGR
- 10.7%
- Sharpe
- 0.63
- Max Drawdown
- -34.0%
- Volatility
- 13.2%
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek. Designed to fully participate in advancing markets while stepping aside from sustained drawdowns. Its infrequent trading cadence (approximately one round-trip every 2.5 years in historical data) also yields better-than-average tax efficiency, since most holding periods qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) defines the band center. A 3-day SMA of SPY close acts as the price proxy. Bands are set at +3% (upper) and -5% (lower) around the 200 SMA. When the 3-day crosses above the upper band, the portfolio moves to 100% SPY; when it crosses below the lower band, it moves to 100% cash (BIL). Positions are held between the bands, so corrections down to 5% below the 200 SMA are treated as noise rather than a signal: this is what produces the low turnover. The asymmetric thresholds (+3% up / -5% down) encode the premise that downside breaks are more reliable than upside breakouts, so the strategy requires a deeper move below trend to trigger an exit than it requires above trend to trigger an entry. The extra distance on the downside filters out normal pullbacks that would otherwise cause whipsaws.
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek): frequently asked questions
- What is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)?
- Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek. Designed to fully participate in advancing markets while stepping aside from sustained drawdowns. Its infrequent trading cadence (approximately one round-trip every 2.5 years in historical data) also yields better-than-average tax efficiency, since most holding periods qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) defines the band center. A 3-day SMA of SPY close acts as the price proxy. Bands are set at +3% (upper) and -5% (lower) around the 200 SMA. When the 3-day crosses above the upper band, the portfolio moves to 100% SPY; when it crosses below the lower band, it moves to 100% cash (BIL). Positions are held between the bands, so corrections down to 5% below the 200 SMA are treated as noise rather than a signal: this is what produces the low turnover. The asymmetric thresholds (+3% up / -5% down) encode the premise that downside breaks are more reliable than upside breakouts, so the strategy requires a deeper move below trend to trigger an exit than it requires above trend to trigger an entry. The extra distance on the downside filters out normal pullbacks that would otherwise cause whipsaws.
- Who created the SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) strategy?
- SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) was developed by Bill Sadek.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)?
- Backtested from 1985-10-17 to 2026-10-19, SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) returned 10.7% CAGR with a -34.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) rebalanced?
- SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-10-17 to 2026-10-19)
| Metric | SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.7% |
| Max Drawdown | -34.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.63 |
| Sortino | 1.30 |
| Volatility | 13.2% |
| Calmar | 0.32 |
| Total Return | 6461.2% |
| Backtest Period | 41.0 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Bill Sadek
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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