SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a daily cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-20. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2005 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Daily
- Backtest data through
- 2026-07-20
- History boundary
- The recorded 2005 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek.
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-20. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- Today (market open); scheduled 2026-07-21 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) at a glance
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20 (40.7 years): 10.3% CAGR, 0.83 Sharpe, -34.0% max drawdown, 13.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20
- CAGR
- 10.3%
- Sharpe
- 0.83
- Max Drawdown
- -34.0%
- Volatility
- 13.3%
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek. Designed to fully participate in advancing markets while stepping aside from sustained drawdowns. Its infrequent trading cadence (approximately one round-trip every 2.5 years in historical data) also yields better-than-average tax efficiency, since most holding periods qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) defines the band center. A 3-day SMA of SPY close acts as the price proxy. Bands are set at +3% (upper) and -5% (lower) around the 200 SMA. When the 3-day crosses above the upper band, the portfolio moves to 100% SPY; when it crosses below the lower band, it moves to 100% cash (BIL). Positions are held between the bands, so corrections down to 5% below the 200 SMA are treated as noise rather than a signal: this is what produces the low turnover. The asymmetric thresholds (+3% up / -5% down) encode the premise that downside breaks are more reliable than upside breakouts, so the strategy requires a deeper move below trend to trigger an exit than it requires above trend to trigger an entry. The extra distance on the downside filters out normal pullbacks that would otherwise cause whipsaws.
SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek): frequently asked questions
- What is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)?
- Asymmetric-band trend timer on SPY, originally identified at a trading-group meeting in the mid-2000s and validated in live use for over two decades by Bill Sadek. Designed to fully participate in advancing markets while stepping aside from sustained drawdowns. Its infrequent trading cadence (approximately one round-trip every 2.5 years in historical data) also yields better-than-average tax efficiency, since most holding periods qualify for long-term capital gains treatment. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) defines the band center. A 3-day SMA of SPY close acts as the price proxy. Bands are set at +3% (upper) and -5% (lower) around the 200 SMA. When the 3-day crosses above the upper band, the portfolio moves to 100% SPY; when it crosses below the lower band, it moves to 100% cash (BIL). Positions are held between the bands, so corrections down to 5% below the 200 SMA are treated as noise rather than a signal: this is what produces the low turnover. The asymmetric thresholds (+3% up / -5% down) encode the premise that downside breaks are more reliable than upside breakouts, so the strategy requires a deeper move below trend to trigger an exit than it requires above trend to trigger an entry. The extra distance on the downside filters out normal pullbacks that would otherwise cause whipsaws.
- Who created the SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) strategy?
- SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) was developed by Bill Sadek.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek)?
- Backtested from 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20, SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) returned 10.3% CAGR with a -34.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.83. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) rebalanced?
- SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20)
| Metric | SPY 200MA Band Timer (Sadek) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -34.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.83 |
| Sortino | 0.89 |
| Volatility | 13.3% |
| Calmar | 0.30 |
| Total Return | 5409.6% |
| Backtest Period | 40.7 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Bill Sadek
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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