Vol-Target 2x QQQ
View this strategy's rules and backtest. Backtest max drawdown: -28.5%.
Research and methodology
View this strategy's rules and backtest. Backtest max drawdown: -28.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The dates below identify the available data and the next scheduled review.
- Cadence:
- Daily
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-09-17; latest signal date not currently published.
- History boundary:
- Backtest simulation only; no live publication yet
- Published result:
- Engine daily-reset-v1, data version f4738015, published 2026-09-10
- Rule / approach
- Holds 2x Nasdaq-100 (QLD) only while the Nasdaq is above its 200-day moving average (3-day confirmed), sized to a target volatility reassessed monthly, otherwise T-bills (BIL).
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Trade date not currently published. Review the published signal before placing any trades in your own brokerage.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
- Freshness
- Signal data cutoff not currently published. Backtest data through 2026-09-17; latest signal date not currently published.
- Next expected action
- Next review not currently published.
Is Vol-Target 2x QQQ still working in 2026?
Vol-Target 2x QQQ returned 19.84% over the trailing 12 months and 72.08% over 36 months through 2026-09-17, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 9.75%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -28.55%. The full sample contains 6766 daily NAV observations from 1999-10-22. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 19.84% | Not annualized | -7.86% | 252 | 2025-09-17 to 2026-09-17 |
| Trailing 36 months | 72.08% | Not annualized | -13.83% | 754 | 2023-09-15 to 2026-09-17 |
| Full backtest | 1120.95% | 9.75% | -28.55% | 6766 | 1999-10-22 to 2026-09-17 |
Last verified
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signal History card on this strategy page shows dated model decisions for the selected variant, subject to its access tier. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Vol-Target 2x QQQ at a glance
Vol-Target 2x QQQ is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by BestFolio, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1999-10-22 to 2026-09-17 (26.9 years): 9.7% CAGR, 0.74 Sharpe, -28.5% max drawdown, 15.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- BestFolio
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1999-10-22 to 2026-09-17
- CAGR
- 9.7%
- Sharpe
- 0.74
- Max Drawdown
- -28.5%
- Volatility
- 15.3%
Vol-Target 2x QQQ — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Holds 2x Nasdaq-100 (QLD) only while the Nasdaq is above its 200-day moving average (3-day confirmed), sized to a target volatility reassessed monthly, otherwise T-bills (BIL). A continuous-risk-control take on leveraged Nasdaq: it captures most of the upside while the trend gate sidesteps the catastrophic leveraged drawdowns (raw 2x QQQ buy-and-hold lost about 99% in the dot-com crash).
Vol-Target 2x QQQ: frequently asked questions
- What is Vol-Target 2x QQQ?
- Holds 2x Nasdaq-100 (QLD) only while the Nasdaq is above its 200-day moving average (3-day confirmed), sized to a target volatility reassessed monthly, otherwise T-bills (BIL). A continuous-risk-control take on leveraged Nasdaq: it captures most of the upside while the trend gate sidesteps the catastrophic leveraged drawdowns (raw 2x QQQ buy-and-hold lost about 99% in the dot-com crash).
- Who created the Vol-Target 2x QQQ strategy?
- Vol-Target 2x QQQ was developed by BestFolio.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Vol-Target 2x QQQ?
- Backtested from 1999-10-22 to 2026-09-17, Vol-Target 2x QQQ returned 9.7% CAGR with a -28.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Vol-Target 2x QQQ rebalanced?
- Vol-Target 2x QQQ is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Vol-Target 2x QQQ a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Vol-Target 2x QQQ is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1999-10-22 to 2026-09-17)
| Metric | Vol-Target 2x QQQ |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 9.7% |
| Max Drawdown | -28.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.74 |
| Sortino | 1.20 |
| Volatility | 15.3% |
| Calmar | 0.34 |
| Total Return | 1109.2% |
| Backtest Period | 26.9 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 4
- Author
- BestFolio
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Vol-Target 2x QQQ alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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