Regime Detector
Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a daily cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Daily
- Backtest data through
- 2026-08-19
- History boundary
- The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. Compute 6 daily signals: price trend, VIX level, ADX direction, credit ratio, canary, breadth 2. Each signal contributes +1, 0, or -1 to composite score (-6 to +6) 3. When risk-on: slow exit if score <= 0 for 15 days, fast exit if…
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- Today (market open); scheduled 2026-08-20 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Regime Detector at a glance
Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit) across US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged), Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1990-10-09 to 2026-08-19 (35.7 years): 12.7% CAGR, 0.67 Sharpe, -67.9% max drawdown, 24.0% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1990-10-09 to 2026-08-19
- CAGR
- 12.7%
- Sharpe
- 0.67
- Max Drawdown
- -67.9%
- Volatility
- 24.0%
Regime Detector — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Regime Detector is a composite scoring system by Reddit user Neat_Bug1775 that monitors 6 macro signals daily to determine whether to hold SSO (2x S&P 500) or SHV (short-term treasuries).
The six signals each contribute +1, 0, or -1 to a composite score (-6 to +6): price trend (SPY vs 200-SMA with 3-day hysteresis), VIX level, ADX(14) trend strength, credit spreads (HYG/LQD ratio vs 50-SMA), canary universe (HYG/EEM/IWM vs 50-SMA), and market breadth (RSP/SPY ratio vs 50-SMA).
Regime Detector: frequently asked questions
- What is Regime Detector?
- Multi-signal regime detection system for SSO/SHV rotation. Monitors 6 macro indicators (price trend, VIX, ADX, credit spreads, canary assets, breadth) to build a composite score. Uses time-based confirmation (15-day slow exit, 3-day fast exit) to avoid whipsaws while catching structural bear markets.
- Who created the Regime Detector strategy?
- Regime Detector was developed by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). It is based on Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Regime Detector?
- Backtested from 1990-10-09 to 2026-08-19, Regime Detector returned 12.7% CAGR with a -67.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Regime Detector rebalanced?
- Regime Detector is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Regime Detector a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1990-10-09 to 2026-08-19)
| Metric | Regime Detector |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 12.7% |
| Max Drawdown | -67.9% |
| Sharpe | 0.67 |
| Sortino | 0.94 |
| Volatility | 24.0% |
| Calmar | 0.19 |
| Total Return | 7111.8% |
| Backtest Period | 35.7 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 3
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Source
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector
Asset Classes
- US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged)
- Short-Term Treasuries
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Track Regime Detector in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.
Related strategies
Related research
- A simple safety brake for leveraged portfoliosLeveraged portfolios shine for years, then a long bear market can erase a decade of gains. Here is a simple, well-worn trend rule that sidesteps the worst of it, and the braked versions of four popular portfolios we just added.
- Introducing BestFolio Originals: 4 New In-House Strategies + 1 Community FavoriteWe built four new strategies from scratch — including Composite Momentum, which achieves a Sharpe ratio above 1.0 over 25+ years. Plus a community-sourced Golden Ratio portfolio. Here is how we designed them.