Regime Detector at a glance
Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit) across US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged), Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1990-10-09 to 2026-07-03 (35.7 years): 12.7% CAGR, 0.67 Sharpe, -67.9% max drawdown, 24.0% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1990-10-09 to 2026-07-03
- CAGR
- 12.7%
- Sharpe
- 0.67
- Max Drawdown
- -67.9%
- Volatility
- 24.0%
Regime Detector — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Regime Detector is a composite scoring system by Reddit user Neat_Bug1775 that monitors 6 macro signals daily to determine whether to hold SSO (2x S&P 500) or SHV (short-term treasuries).
The six signals each contribute +1, 0, or -1 to a composite score (-6 to +6): price trend (SPY vs 200-SMA with 3-day hysteresis), VIX level, ADX(14) trend strength, credit spreads (HYG/LQD ratio vs 50-SMA), canary universe (HYG/EEM/IWM vs 50-SMA), and market breadth (RSP/SPY ratio vs 50-SMA).
Regime Detector: frequently asked questions
- What is Regime Detector?
- Multi-signal regime detection system for SSO/SHV rotation. Monitors 6 macro indicators (price trend, VIX, ADX, credit spreads, canary assets, breadth) to build a composite score. Uses time-based confirmation (15-day slow exit, 3-day fast exit) to avoid whipsaws while catching structural bear markets.
- Who created the Regime Detector strategy?
- Regime Detector was developed by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). It is based on Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Regime Detector?
- Backtested from 1990-10-09 to 2026-07-03, Regime Detector returned 12.7% CAGR with a -67.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Regime Detector rebalanced?
- Regime Detector is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Regime Detector a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1990-10-09 to 2026-07-03)
| Metric | Regime Detector |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 12.7% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -67.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.67 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.94 |
| Annualized Volatility | 24.0% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.19 |
| Total Return | 7111.8% |
| Backtest Period | 35.7 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 3
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Source
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector
Asset Classes
- US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged)
- Short-Term Treasuries
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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