Regime Detector
Compute 6 daily signals: price trend, VIX level, ADX direction, credit ratio, canary, breadth. Backtest max drawdown: -68.0%.
Strategy & methodology
Compute 6 daily signals: price trend, VIX level, ADX direction, credit ratio, canary, breadth; Each signal contributes +1, 0, or -1 to composite score (-6 to +6); When risk-on: slow exit if score <= 0 for 15 days, fast exit if score <= -3…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2024; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-02.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1990
- 12.6% a year, worst fall -68.0% (Apr 16, 2003, a simulated 2x)
- Since SSO launched (Jun 21, 2006)
- 14.4% a year, worst fall -40.7% (Jun 11, 2020)
Stand-in funds and until when (1)
- SSO: simulated 2x SPY before Jun 21, 2006
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Compute 6 daily signals: price trend, VIX level, ADX direction, credit ratio, canary, breadth. Backtest max drawdown: -68.0%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 1da986e1, published 2026-10-01
Is Regime Detector still working in 2026?
Regime Detector returned 25.55% over the trailing 12 months and 158.72% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 12.61%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -68.01%. The full sample contains 9064 daily NAV observations from 1990-10-09. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -2.68% below its high-water mark of 2026-08-13, 2 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 11 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 25.55% | Not annualized | -18.17% | 255 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 158.72% | Not annualized | -19.60% | 757 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 7070.45% | 12.61% | -68.01% | 9064 | 1990-10-09 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-08-13, 2 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -2.68% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 11 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Regime Detector at a glance
Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit) across US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged), Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1990-10-09 to 2026-10-02 (36.0 years): 12.6% CAGR, 0.66 Sharpe, -68.0% max drawdown, 23.9% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1990-10-09 to 2026-10-02
- CAGR
- 12.6%
- Sharpe
- 0.66
- Max Drawdown
- -68.0%
- Volatility
- 23.9%
Regime Detector — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Regime Detector is a composite scoring system by Reddit user Neat_Bug1775 that monitors 6 macro signals daily to determine whether to hold SSO (2x S&P 500) or SHV (short-term treasuries).
The six signals each contribute +1, 0, or -1 to a composite score (-6 to +6): price trend (SPY vs its 200-day SMA; the signal flips only after 3 days in a row on the other side), VIX level, ADX(14) trend strength, credit spreads (HYG/LQD ratio vs 50-SMA), canary universe (HYG/EEM/IWM vs 50-SMA), and market breadth (RSP/SPY ratio vs 50-SMA).
Regime Detector: frequently asked questions
- What is Regime Detector?
- Multi-signal regime detection system for SSO/SHV rotation. Monitors 6 macro indicators (price trend, VIX, ADX, credit spreads, canary assets, breadth) to build a composite score. Uses time-based confirmation (15-day slow exit, 3-day fast exit) to avoid whipsaws while catching structural bear markets.
- Who created the Regime Detector strategy?
- Regime Detector was developed by Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). It is based on Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Regime Detector?
- Backtested from 1990-10-09 to 2026-10-02, Regime Detector returned 12.6% CAGR with a -68.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.66. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Regime Detector rebalanced?
- Regime Detector is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Regime Detector a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Regime Detector is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1990-10-09 to 2026-10-02)
| Metric | Regime Detector |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 12.6% |
| Max Drawdown | -68.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.66 |
| Sortino | 1.07 |
| Volatility | 23.9% |
| Calmar | 0.18 |
| Total Return | 6943.5% |
| Backtest Period | 36.0 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 3
- Author
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit)
- Source
- Neat_Bug1775 (Reddit). Regime Detector
Asset Classes
- US Equity (2x/3x Leveraged)
- Short-Term Treasuries
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Regime Detector alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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