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Papa Bear Portfolio

Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2018 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-08-19
History boundary
The recorded 2018 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. For each of the 13 ETFs, compute 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month total returns 2. Calculate composite momentum score = average of the three return periods 3. Select the top 3, allocate 33.33% to each 4. Universe: VTV, VUG, VIOV, VIOG…
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Papa Bear Portfolio at a glance

Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Brian Livingston across US Equity (Value), US Equity (Growth), US Small Cap, International Equity, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19 (32.6 years): 11.3% CAGR, 0.93 Sharpe, -24.2% max drawdown, 14.4% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Brian Livingston
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Conservative
Period
1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19
CAGR
11.3%
Sharpe
0.93
Max Drawdown
-24.2%
Volatility
14.4%

Papa Bear Portfolio Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

The Papa Bear Portfolio is the more sophisticated of Brian Livingston's two 'Muscular Portfolios'. It uses a broader 13-ETF universe and a composite momentum score that averages 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month total returns. The top 3 are held in equal weight (33.33% each). The multi-period scoring smooths out noise compared to Mama Bear's single-period lookback.

Papa Bear Portfolio: frequently asked questions

What is Papa Bear Portfolio?
Momentum rotation across 13 diversified ETFs spanning equities, REITs, commodities, and bonds. Holds the top 3 by average 3/6/12-month return, equal-weighted. Broader universe than Mama Bear for more diversification. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the Papa Bear Portfolio strategy?
Papa Bear Portfolio was developed by Brian Livingston. It is based on Livingston, B. Muscular Portfolios. BenBella Books (2018)..
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Papa Bear Portfolio?
Backtested from 1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19, Papa Bear Portfolio returned 11.3% CAGR with a -24.2% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.93. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Papa Bear Portfolio rebalanced?
Papa Bear Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Papa Bear Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19)

MetricPapa Bear Portfolio
CAGR11.3%
Max Drawdown-24.2%
Sharpe0.93
Sortino1.55
Volatility14.4%
Calmar0.47
Total Return3214.2%
Backtest Period32.6 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
conservative
Variants
1
Author
Brian Livingston
Source
Livingston, B. Muscular Portfolios. BenBella Books (2018).

Asset Classes

  • US Equity (Value)
  • US Equity (Growth)
  • US Small Cap
  • International Equity
  • Emerging Markets
  • REITs
  • Commodities
  • Gold
  • Treasuries
  • Corporate Bonds
  • International Bonds

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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