Papa Bear Portfolio
Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2018 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-08-19
- History boundary
- The recorded 2018 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. For each of the 13 ETFs, compute 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month total returns 2. Calculate composite momentum score = average of the three return periods 3. Select the top 3, allocate 33.33% to each 4. Universe: VTV, VUG, VIOV, VIOG…
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Papa Bear Portfolio at a glance
Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Brian Livingston across US Equity (Value), US Equity (Growth), US Small Cap, International Equity, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19 (32.6 years): 11.3% CAGR, 0.93 Sharpe, -24.2% max drawdown, 14.4% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Brian Livingston
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19
- CAGR
- 11.3%
- Sharpe
- 0.93
- Max Drawdown
- -24.2%
- Volatility
- 14.4%
Papa Bear Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Papa Bear Portfolio is the more sophisticated of Brian Livingston's two 'Muscular Portfolios'. It uses a broader 13-ETF universe and a composite momentum score that averages 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month total returns. The top 3 are held in equal weight (33.33% each). The multi-period scoring smooths out noise compared to Mama Bear's single-period lookback.
Papa Bear Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Papa Bear Portfolio?
- Momentum rotation across 13 diversified ETFs spanning equities, REITs, commodities, and bonds. Holds the top 3 by average 3/6/12-month return, equal-weighted. Broader universe than Mama Bear for more diversification. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Papa Bear Portfolio strategy?
- Papa Bear Portfolio was developed by Brian Livingston. It is based on Livingston, B. Muscular Portfolios. BenBella Books (2018)..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Papa Bear Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19, Papa Bear Portfolio returned 11.3% CAGR with a -24.2% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.93. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Papa Bear Portfolio rebalanced?
- Papa Bear Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Papa Bear Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Papa Bear Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1993-11-30 to 2026-08-19)
| Metric | Papa Bear Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 11.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -24.2% |
| Sharpe | 0.93 |
| Sortino | 1.55 |
| Volatility | 14.4% |
| Calmar | 0.47 |
| Total Return | 3214.2% |
| Backtest Period | 32.6 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Brian Livingston
- Source
- Livingston, B. Muscular Portfolios. BenBella Books (2018).
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Value)
- US Equity (Growth)
- US Small Cap
- International Equity
- Emerging Markets
- REITs
- Commodities
- Gold
- Treasuries
- Corporate Bonds
- International Bonds
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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