TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%)
Each day, compute the 200-day SMA and +4% / -3% bands for SPY, and the 200-day SMA for QQQ. Backtest max drawdown: -72.9%.
Extreme risk: not investable
This strategy's worst historical drawdown is about -73%, a near-total loss from peak. It is published for research and illustration only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, and you should not allocate capital you are not prepared to lose almost entirely.
That fall came on Sep 20, 2000, a simulated 3x. Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010), the worst fall was -55%. This warning uses the full history.
This warning is about holding it on its own. Inside some diversified BestFolio portfolios a strategy like this appears only as a small, capped sleeve, where its risk is bounded and offset by holdings that behave differently.
For lower-risk, diversified strategies, browse the full catalog.
Strategy & methodology
Each day, compute the 200-day SMA and +4% / -3% bands for SPY, and the 200-day SMA for QQQ; Risk-on only if SPY close > SMA200 x 1.04 AND QQQ close >= its SMA200 x 0.97 -> 60% TQQQ / 40% TLT; Risk-off if SPY close < SMA200 x 0.97 OR QQQ…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2026-07; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-02.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1986
- 18.8% a year, worst fall -72.9% (Sep 20, 2000, a simulated 3x)
- Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010)
- 24.3% a year, worst fall -55.4% (Oct 24, 2022)
Stand-in funds and until when (2)
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Each day, compute the 200-day SMA and +4% / -3% bands for SPY, and the 200-day SMA for QQQ. Backtest max drawdown: -72.9%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 0d1660b5, published 2026-10-01
Is TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) still working in 2026?
TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) returned 9.45% over the trailing 12 months and 102.49% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 18.83%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -72.87%. The full sample contains 10136 daily NAV observations from 1986-07-10. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -7.81% below its high-water mark of 2024-12-16, 1.8 years ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 9.7 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 9.45% | Not annualized | -24.79% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 102.49% | Not annualized | -35.83% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 103229.62% | 18.83% | -72.87% | 10136 | 1986-07-10 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2024-12-16, 1.8 years before 2026-10-02, and it is -7.81% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 9.7 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) at a glance
TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ) across US Equity (Leveraged), US Treasuries, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1986-07-10 to 2026-10-02 (40.2 years): 18.8% CAGR, 0.66 Sharpe, -72.9% max drawdown, 38.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1986-07-10 to 2026-10-02
- CAGR
- 18.8%
- Sharpe
- 0.66
- Max Drawdown
- -72.9%
- Volatility
- 38.3%
TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate is a UK/UCITS-oriented sibling of the TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band. It keeps the same asymmetric +4% / -3% trend band on the S&P 500 but adds two changes requested by u/HBCTIA on r/TQQQ.
First, a dual gate: the strategy only re-leverages when BOTH indices confirm. It goes risk-on when SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA AND the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) is not more than 3% below its own 200-day SMA, and it steps back to defence when EITHER index closes more than 3% below its SMA. The second gate on the Nasdaq blocks re-leveraging into a tech tape that is diverging weak under a strong headline S&P.
TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%): frequently asked questions
- What is TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%)?
- A dual-confirmation trend band that switches between 3x Nasdaq-100 and long US Treasuries. Go risk-on only when SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA AND the Nasdaq-100 is not more than 3% below its own 200-day SMA, holding 60% TQQQ / 40% TLT. Go risk-off (100% TLT) when either index closes more than 3% below its SMA. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). Unlike the single-gate SPY band, the defensive leg flees to Treasuries rather than staying in the underlying, and a second gate on the Nasdaq blocks re-leveraging when tech diverges weak. High-drawdown leveraged satellite, not a core.
- Who created the TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) strategy?
- TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) was developed by u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ). It is based on Community strategy by u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ), 2026: a UK/UCITS dual-gate variant of the SPY 200SMA band, requested by email..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%)?
- Backtested from 1986-07-10 to 2026-10-02, TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) returned 18.8% CAGR with a -72.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.66. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) rebalanced?
- TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-07-10 to 2026-10-02)
| Metric | TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 18.8% |
| Max Drawdown | -72.9% |
| Sharpe | 0.66 |
| Sortino | 1.11 |
| Volatility | 38.3% |
| Calmar | 0.26 |
| Total Return | 100621.0% |
| Backtest Period | 40.2 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ)
- Source
- Community strategy by u/HBCTIA (r/TQQQ), 2026: a UK/UCITS dual-gate variant of the SPY 200SMA band, requested by email.
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Leveraged)
- US Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding TQQQ/TLT Dual-Gate (+4%/-3%) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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