Who created the 200-Day SMA Trend strategy?

200-Day SMA Trend was developed by Meb Faber.

What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of 200-Day SMA Trend?

Backtested from 1990-12-31 to 2026-07-31, 200-Day SMA Trend returned 10.6% CAGR with a -25.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How often is 200-Day SMA Trend rebalanced?

200-Day SMA Trend is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.

Is 200-Day SMA Trend a tactical asset allocation strategy?

Yes. 200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

200-Day SMA Trend

Name: 200-Day SMA Trend, Backtest Time Series
Creator: BestFolio
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-31. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. No publication or construction date is recorded, so no observed-versus-simulated boundary is claimed; all displayed returns are hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence: Monthly
Backtest data through: 2026-07-31
History boundary: No publication or construction date is recorded, so no observed-versus-simulated boundary is claimed; all displayed returns are hypothetical.
Rule / approach: A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL).
BestFolio supplies: the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action: Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions: net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness: The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-31. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action: First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

200-Day SMA Trend at a glance

200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1990-12-31 to 2026-07-31 (35.5 years): 10.6% CAGR, 1.01 Sharpe, -25.0% max drawdown, 12.6% volatility.

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Author: Meb Faber
Rebalancing: Monthly
Risk: Moderate
Period: 1990-12-31 to 2026-07-31
CAGR: 10.6%
Sharpe: 1.01
Max Drawdown: -25.0%
Volatility: 12.6%

200-Day SMA Trend — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.

200-Day SMA Trend: frequently asked questions

What is 200-Day SMA Trend?: A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.
Who created the 200-Day SMA Trend strategy?: 200-Day SMA Trend was developed by Meb Faber.
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of 200-Day SMA Trend?: Backtested from 1990-12-31 to 2026-07-31, 200-Day SMA Trend returned 10.6% CAGR with a -25.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is 200-Day SMA Trend rebalanced?: 200-Day SMA Trend is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is 200-Day SMA Trend a tactical asset allocation strategy?: Yes. 200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1990-12-31 to 2026-07-31)

Metric	200-Day SMA Trend
CAGR	10.6%
Max Drawdown	-25.0%
Sharpe	1.01
Sortino	1.33
Volatility	12.6%
Calmar	0.42
Total Return	3475.8%
Backtest Period	35.5 years

Strategy Details

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing: monthly
Risk Level: moderate
Variants: 6
Author: Meb Faber

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