200-Day SMA Trend
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). Backtest max drawdown: -25.0%.
Research and methodology
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). Backtest max drawdown: -25.0%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The dates below identify the available data and the next scheduled review.
- Cadence:
- Monthly
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-09-14; latest signal date not currently published.
- History boundary:
- Backtest simulation only; no live publication yet
- Published result:
- Engine daily-reset-v1, data version 640016cd, published 2026-09-10
- Rule / approach
- A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL).
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Trade date not currently published. Review the published signal before placing any trades in your own brokerage.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
- Freshness
- Signal data cutoff not currently published. Backtest data through 2026-09-14; latest signal date not currently published.
- Next expected action
- Next review not currently published.
Is 200-Day SMA Trend still working in 2026?
200-Day SMA Trend returned 5.97% over the trailing 12 months and 39.14% over 36 months through 2026-09-14, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 10.60%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -25.03%. The full sample contains 8990 daily NAV observations from 1990-12-31. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 5.97% | Not annualized | -8.88% | 252 | 2025-09-12 to 2026-09-14 |
| Trailing 36 months | 39.14% | Not annualized | -10.04% | 752 | 2023-09-14 to 2026-09-14 |
| Full backtest | 3548.31% | 10.60% | -25.03% | 8990 | 1990-12-31 to 2026-09-14 |
Last verified
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signal History card on this strategy page shows dated model decisions for the selected variant, subject to its access tier. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
200-Day SMA Trend at a glance
200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1990-12-31 to 2026-09-14 (35.7 years): 10.6% CAGR, 1.02 Sharpe, -25.0% max drawdown, 12.6% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1990-12-31 to 2026-09-14
- CAGR
- 10.6%
- Sharpe
- 1.02
- Max Drawdown
- -25.0%
- Volatility
- 12.6%
200-Day SMA Trend — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.
200-Day SMA Trend: frequently asked questions
- What is 200-Day SMA Trend?
- A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.
- Who created the 200-Day SMA Trend strategy?
- 200-Day SMA Trend was developed by Meb Faber.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of 200-Day SMA Trend?
- Backtested from 1990-12-31 to 2026-09-14, 200-Day SMA Trend returned 10.6% CAGR with a -25.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.02. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is 200-Day SMA Trend rebalanced?
- 200-Day SMA Trend is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is 200-Day SMA Trend a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. 200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1990-12-31 to 2026-09-14)
| Metric | 200-Day SMA Trend |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.6% |
| Max Drawdown | -25.0% |
| Sharpe | 1.02 |
| Sortino | 1.69 |
| Volatility | 12.6% |
| Calmar | 0.42 |
| Total Return | 3533.7% |
| Backtest Period | 35.7 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 6
- Author
- Meb Faber
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding 200-Day SMA Trend alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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