Bogleheads Three-Fund
Allocate 40% to VTI (Vanguard Total US Stock Market). Allocate 20% to VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock). Backtest max drawdown: -35.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Allocate 40% to VTI (Vanguard Total US Stock Market); Allocate 20% to VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock); Allocate 40% to BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market); Rebalance annually or when drift exceeds threshold.
- Strategy type:
- Fixed allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Annual
- Original publication:
- 1999-11-21; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-02.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (5)
- VXUS: VGTSX before Jan 28, 2011
- BND: AGG before Apr 10, 2007
- VTI: VTSMX before May 31, 2001
- VXUS: PRITX before Jan 28, 2011
- VTI: VFINX before May 31, 2001
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Allocate 40% to VTI (Vanguard Total US Stock Market). Allocate 20% to VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock). Backtest max drawdown: -35.5%. This is a fixed-allocation portfolio. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The annual signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version d8dc9413, published 2026-10-01
Is Bogleheads Three-Fund still working in 2026?
Bogleheads Three-Fund returned 8.81% over the trailing 12 months and 52.03% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 8.40%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -35.50%. The full sample contains 9775 daily NAV observations from 1987-12-31. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -2.33% below its high-water mark of 2026-08-13, 2 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.3 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 8.81% | Not annualized | -6.30% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 52.03% | Not annualized | -9.84% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 2176.68% | 8.40% | -35.50% | 9775 | 1987-12-31 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-08-13, 2 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -2.33% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.3 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Bogleheads Three-Fund at a glance
Bogleheads Three-Fund is a fixed-allocation portfolio by Bogleheads / Taylor Larimore across US Equity, International Equity, US Bonds, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1987-12-31 to 2026-10-02 (38.8 years): 8.4% CAGR, 0.92 Sharpe, -35.5% max drawdown, 9.9% volatility.
- Type
- Fixed Allocation
- Author
- Bogleheads / Taylor Larimore
- Rebalancing
- Annual
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1987-12-31 to 2026-10-02
- CAGR
- 8.4%
- Sharpe
- 0.92
- Max Drawdown
- -35.5%
- Volatility
- 9.9%
Bogleheads Three-Fund — Fixed Allocation Portfolio
The Bogleheads Three-Fund Portfolio, championed by Taylor Larimore and the Bogleheads forum, captures the entire global stock market plus the US bond market in just three low-cost index funds: 40% US stocks (VTI), 20% international stocks (VXUS), and 40% bonds (BND).
Bogleheads Three-Fund: frequently asked questions
- What is Bogleheads Three-Fund?
- The most popular lazy portfolio: US stocks, international stocks, and US bonds. Simple, diversified, low-cost.
- Who created the Bogleheads Three-Fund strategy?
- Bogleheads Three-Fund was developed by Bogleheads / Taylor Larimore. It is based on Larimore, T. The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio (2018).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Bogleheads Three-Fund?
- Backtested from 1987-12-31 to 2026-10-02, Bogleheads Three-Fund returned 8.4% CAGR with a -35.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.92. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Bogleheads Three-Fund rebalanced?
- Bogleheads Three-Fund is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Bogleheads Three-Fund a fixed or tactical strategy?
- Bogleheads Three-Fund is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.
Backtest Performance (1987-12-31 to 2026-10-02)
| Metric | Bogleheads Three-Fund |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.4% |
| Max Drawdown | -35.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.92 |
| Sortino | 1.45 |
| Volatility | 9.9% |
| Calmar | 0.24 |
| Total Return | 2164.4% |
| Backtest Period | 38.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Fixed / Strategic
- Rebalancing
- annual
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Bogleheads / Taylor Larimore
- Source
- Larimore, T. The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio (2018)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- US Bonds
Categories
Further reading
Holding Bogleheads Three-Fund alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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