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DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-20. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2018-07-12 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-08-20
History boundary
The recorded 2018-07-12 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. Compute 13612W momentum for canary assets (VWO, BND) 2. Count n = number of canary assets with momentum <= 0 3. Cash fraction CF = n / B (B=2), yielding 0%, 50%, or 100% 4. CF=0%: top 6 offensive assets by 13612W, equal weight (~16.7%…
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-20. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) at a glance

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning across US Equity, Small Cap, Tech, Europe, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-20 (40.3 years): 12.4% CAGR, 1.32 Sharpe, -19.6% max drawdown, 9.9% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Moderate
Period
1986-02-28 to 2026-08-20
CAGR
12.4%
Sharpe
1.32
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Volatility
9.9%

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA) is a broad tactical strategy by Keller & Keuning that uses a dual canary universe (VWO and BND) to detect market stress. The canary assets act as early warning signals: when their 13612W momentum turns negative, the portfolio gradually shifts from a diversified offensive allocation (top 6 of 12 assets) toward a single defensive asset. The three-tier system (0%, 50%, 100% cash fraction) provides a smoother transition than the binary VAA approach.

DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation): frequently asked questions

What is Defensive Asset Allocation?
Dual-canary crash protection with three-tier allocation. VWO and BND momentum controls a 0/50/100% bond fraction; offense selects top 6 of 12 global assets by weighted multi-period momentum. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) strategy?
DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) was developed by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning. It is based on Keller, W.J. & Keuning, J.W. (2018). Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA).
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)?
Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-20, DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) returned 12.4% CAGR with a -19.6% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.32. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) rebalanced?
DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-08-20)

MetricDAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)
CAGR12.4%
Max Drawdown-19.6%
Sharpe1.32
Sortino2.21
Volatility9.9%
Calmar0.63
Total Return10892.0%
Backtest Period40.3 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
moderate
Variants
2
Author
Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning
Source
Keller, W.J. & Keuning, J.W. (2018). Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA)

Asset Classes

  • US Equity
  • Small Cap
  • Tech
  • Europe
  • Japan
  • Emerging Markets
  • REITs
  • Commodities
  • Gold
  • Long-Term Treasuries
  • High Yield Bonds
  • Corporate Bonds

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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