Weird Portfolio
Default (author's funds): 20% IJS, 20% SCZ, 10% VNQ, 10% VNQI, 20% TLT, 20% GLDM. Backtest max drawdown: -36.0%.
Strategy & methodology
Default (author's funds): 20% IJS, 20% SCZ, 10% VNQ, 10% VNQI, 20% TLT, 20% GLDM; Five-fund version: 20% each in IJS, SCZ, VNQ, TLT and GLDM; Rebalance annually.
- Strategy type:
- Fixed allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Annual
- Original publication:
- 2020-07-24; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-22.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (6)
- VNQI: RWX before Nov 1, 2010
- SCZ: EFA x1.1 before Dec 12, 2007
- VNQ: VGSIX before Sep 29, 2004
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- IJS: DFSVX before Jul 28, 2000
- VNQ: FRESX before Sep 29, 2004
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Default (author's funds): 20% IJS, 20% SCZ, 10% VNQ, 10% VNQI, 20% TLT, 20% GLDM. Backtest max drawdown: -36.0%. This is a fixed-allocation portfolio. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The annual signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 4a81916d, published 2026-10-17
Is Weird Portfolio still working in 2026?
Weird Portfolio returned 4.62% over the trailing 12 months and 57.46% over 36 months through 2026-10-22, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 10.80%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -35.96%. The full sample contains 13522 daily NAV observations from 1973-12-31. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-22 it is -7.01% below its high-water mark of 2026-02-27, 8 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.5 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 4.62% | Not annualized | -9.70% | 252 | 2025-10-22 to 2026-10-22 |
| Trailing 36 months | 57.46% | Not annualized | -9.70% | 754 | 2023-10-20 to 2026-10-22 |
| Full backtest | 22412.16% | 10.80% | -35.96% | 13522 | 1973-12-31 to 2026-10-22 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-02-27, 8 months before 2026-10-22, and it is -7.01% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.5 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Weird Portfolio at a glance
Weird Portfolio is a fixed-allocation portfolio by Value Stock Geek across US Small-Cap Value, International Small-Cap, US REITs, International REITs, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1973-12-31 to 2026-10-22 (52.8 years): 10.8% CAGR, 0.59 Sharpe, -36.0% max drawdown, 10.8% volatility.
- Type
- Fixed Allocation
- Author
- Value Stock Geek
- Rebalancing
- Annual
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1973-12-31 to 2026-10-22
- CAGR
- 10.8%
- Sharpe
- 0.59
- Max Drawdown
- -36.0%
- Volatility
- 10.8%
Weird Portfolio — Fixed Allocation Portfolio
Value Stock Geek's Weird Portfolio (Medium, July 2020) leaves out large-cap stocks altogether and splits the money into five equal parts: US small-cap value stocks, international small-cap stocks, real estate, long-term Treasuries and gold, rebalanced once a year. The author's case is that each part earns its return in a different economic climate, so together they can grow close to stocks with shallower falls than a stock-only portfolio.
Two versions. The default follows the author's own funds, which split the real estate part between US and international REITs: 20% IJS, 20% SCZ, 10% VNQ, 10% VNQI, 20% TLT and 20% GLDM. The second is the five-fund version popularised by Lazy Portfolio ETF, with all of the real estate in US REITs: 20% each in IJS, SCZ, VNQ, TLT and GLDM. The author held Vanguard funds and SGOL for gold; BestFolio uses its standard fund for each asset class.
Weird Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Weird Portfolio?
- Factor-tilted risk-parity: 40% small-cap (US+intl), 20% REITs, 20% long bonds, 20% gold. Avoids large-cap entirely.
- Who created the Weird Portfolio strategy?
- Weird Portfolio was developed by Value Stock Geek. It is based on Value Stock Geek. The Weird Portfolio (Medium, 2020).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Weird Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1973-12-31 to 2026-10-22, Weird Portfolio returned 10.8% CAGR with a -36.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.59. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Weird Portfolio rebalanced?
- Weird Portfolio is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Weird Portfolio a fixed or tactical strategy?
- Weird Portfolio is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.
Backtest Performance (1973-12-31 to 2026-10-22)
| Metric | Weird Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.8% |
| Max Drawdown | -36.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.59 |
| Sortino | 0.89 |
| Volatility | 10.8% |
| Calmar | 0.30 |
| Total Return | 22366.3% |
| Backtest Period | 52.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Fixed / Strategic
- Rebalancing
- annual
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Value Stock Geek
- Source
- Value Stock Geek. The Weird Portfolio (Medium, 2020)
Asset Classes
- US Small-Cap Value
- International Small-Cap
- US REITs
- International REITs
- Long Treasuries
- Gold
Further reading
Holding Weird Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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