What is Cash Trigger (Carter)?

Simple trend-following rule using SPY's 200-day SMA as regime filter. Above SMA holds 100% equities; below SMA rotates to the best-performing bond by 3-month return from a four-ETF universe. Monthly rebalancing.

Who created the Cash Trigger (Carter) strategy?

Cash Trigger (Carter) was developed by David Alan Carter. It is based on Carter, D.A. The Stock Market Cash Trigger.

What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Cash Trigger (Carter)?

Backtested from 1987-12-31 to 2026-07-23, Cash Trigger (Carter) returned 11.6% CAGR with a -26.3% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.00. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How often is Cash Trigger (Carter) rebalanced?

Cash Trigger (Carter) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.

Is Cash Trigger (Carter) a tactical asset allocation strategy?

Yes. Cash Trigger (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Cash Trigger (Carter)

Name: Cash Trigger (Carter), Backtest Time Series
Creator: BestFolio
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Cash Trigger (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-23. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2018-04-15 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence: Monthly
Backtest data through: 2026-07-23
History boundary: The recorded 2018-04-15 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach: 1. If SPY > 200-day SMA → 100% SPY 2. If SPY <= 200-day SMA → 100% in best bond by 3-month return (TLT/JNK/MUB/SHY)
BestFolio supplies: the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action: Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions: net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness: The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-23. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action: First trading day of August; scheduled 2026-08-03 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Cash Trigger (Carter) at a glance

Cash Trigger (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by David Alan Carter across US Equity, Long Treasuries, High Yield Bonds, Municipal Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1987-12-31 to 2026-07-23 (38.5 years): 11.6% CAGR, 1.00 Sharpe, -26.3% max drawdown, 13.8% volatility.

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Author: David Alan Carter
Rebalancing: Monthly
Risk: Moderate
Period: 1987-12-31 to 2026-07-23
CAGR: 11.6%
Sharpe: 1.00
Max Drawdown: -26.3%
Volatility: 13.8%

Cash Trigger (Carter) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

David Alan Carter's Cash Trigger uses SPY's 200-day SMA as a binary regime filter. Above → 100% SPY. Below → best bond ETF by 3-month return from TLT, JNK, MUB, SHY.

Cash Trigger (Carter): frequently asked questions

What is Cash Trigger (Carter)?: Simple trend-following rule using SPY's 200-day SMA as regime filter. Above SMA holds 100% equities; below SMA rotates to the best-performing bond by 3-month return from a four-ETF universe. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the Cash Trigger (Carter) strategy?: Cash Trigger (Carter) was developed by David Alan Carter. It is based on Carter, D.A. The Stock Market Cash Trigger.
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Cash Trigger (Carter)?: Backtested from 1987-12-31 to 2026-07-23, Cash Trigger (Carter) returned 11.6% CAGR with a -26.3% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.00. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Cash Trigger (Carter) rebalanced?: Cash Trigger (Carter) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Cash Trigger (Carter) a tactical asset allocation strategy?: Yes. Cash Trigger (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1987-12-31 to 2026-07-23)

Metric	Cash Trigger (Carter)
CAGR	11.6%
Max Drawdown	-26.3%
Sharpe	1.00
Sortino	1.46
Volatility	13.8%
Calmar	0.44
Total Return	6715.9%
Backtest Period	38.5 years

Strategy Details

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing: monthly
Risk Level: moderate
Variants: 1
Author: David Alan Carter
Source: Carter, D.A. The Stock Market Cash Trigger

Asset Classes

US Equity
Long Treasuries
High Yield Bonds
Municipal Bonds
Short-Term Treasuries

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