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Carlson's Orthogonal Alpha (BTAL/QLD) at a glance

Carlson's Orthogonal Alpha (BTAL/QLD) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Thomas Carlson across Leveraged US Equity, Market-Neutral / Anti-Beta, rebalanced monthly.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Thomas Carlson
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Aggressive

Carlson's Orthogonal Alpha (BTAL/QLD) Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Thomas Carlson's Orthogonal Alpha is a core-satellite model built around BTAL, the market-neutral anti-beta ETF (long low-beta, short high-beta equities). BTAL behaves largely independently of the broad market and tends to spike during equity stress, which makes it useful both as ballast and as a timing signal.

The core (50%) holds 2x Nasdaq-100 (QLD) and BTAL in equal weight: QLD supplies upside skew while BTAL supplies crisis convexity, so the pair is smoother than QLD alone. The satellite (50%) is a momentum switch that uses BTAL's own strength as the risk gauge: if BTAL's 1/3/6/12-month momentum beats T-bills it holds BTAL, otherwise QLD. Because anti-beta strength tends to lead equity drawdowns, the model de-risks before the damage.

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
aggressive
Variants
1
Author
Thomas Carlson
Source
Carlson, T. (2025). The Power of Orthogonal Alpha: BTAL as Both Hedge and Signal (LinkedIn)

Asset Classes

  • Leveraged US Equity
  • Market-Neutral / Anti-Beta

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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