Trinity Portfolio
Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-09-04. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2015-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-09-04
- History boundary
- The recorded 2015-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. 33.3% each to VTI, VEU, AGG 2. Per asset: if above 200-day SMA → hold; if below → BIL
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-09-04. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of October; scheduled 2026-10-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Trinity Portfolio at a glance
Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Mebane Faber across US Equity, International Equity, US Aggregate Bonds, Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04 (40.5 years): 7.8% CAGR, 1.11 Sharpe, -14.7% max drawdown, 7.4% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Mebane Faber
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04
- CAGR
- 7.8%
- Sharpe
- 1.11
- Max Drawdown
- -14.7%
- Volatility
- 7.4%
Trinity Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Trinity Portfolio allocates equally (33.3% each) across VTI, VEU, and AGG. Each asset is independently filtered using a 200-day SMA: below SMA → that sleeve goes to BIL.
Trinity Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Trinity Portfolio?
- Three-asset trend-following portfolio covering US equity, international equity, and bonds, each filtered by a 200-day SMA. Below-trend assets shift to cash. Simple and effective with just three holdings. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Trinity Portfolio strategy?
- Trinity Portfolio was developed by Mebane Faber. It is based on Faber, M. A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (2007).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Trinity Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04, Trinity Portfolio returned 7.8% CAGR with a -14.7% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.11. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Trinity Portfolio rebalanced?
- Trinity Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Trinity Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04)
| Metric | Trinity Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.8% |
| Max Drawdown | -14.7% |
| Sharpe | 1.11 |
| Sortino | 1.81 |
| Volatility | 7.4% |
| Calmar | 0.53 |
| Total Return | 1961.0% |
| Backtest Period | 40.5 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Mebane Faber
- Source
- Faber, M. A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (2007)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- US Aggregate Bonds
- Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Trinity Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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