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Trinity Portfolio

Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-09-04. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2015-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-09-04
History boundary
The recorded 2015-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. 33.3% each to VTI, VEU, AGG 2. Per asset: if above 200-day SMA → hold; if below → BIL
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-09-04. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of October; scheduled 2026-10-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Trinity Portfolio at a glance

Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Mebane Faber across US Equity, International Equity, US Aggregate Bonds, Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04 (40.5 years): 7.8% CAGR, 1.11 Sharpe, -14.7% max drawdown, 7.4% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Mebane Faber
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Moderate
Period
1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04
CAGR
7.8%
Sharpe
1.11
Max Drawdown
-14.7%
Volatility
7.4%

Trinity Portfolio Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

The Trinity Portfolio allocates equally (33.3% each) across VTI, VEU, and AGG. Each asset is independently filtered using a 200-day SMA: below SMA → that sleeve goes to BIL.

Trinity Portfolio: frequently asked questions

What is Trinity Portfolio?
Three-asset trend-following portfolio covering US equity, international equity, and bonds, each filtered by a 200-day SMA. Below-trend assets shift to cash. Simple and effective with just three holdings. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the Trinity Portfolio strategy?
Trinity Portfolio was developed by Mebane Faber. It is based on Faber, M. A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (2007).
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Trinity Portfolio?
Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04, Trinity Portfolio returned 7.8% CAGR with a -14.7% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.11. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Trinity Portfolio rebalanced?
Trinity Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Trinity Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. Trinity Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-09-04)

MetricTrinity Portfolio
CAGR7.8%
Max Drawdown-14.7%
Sharpe1.11
Sortino1.81
Volatility7.4%
Calmar0.53
Total Return1961.0%
Backtest Period40.5 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
moderate
Variants
1
Author
Mebane Faber
Source
Faber, M. A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (2007)

Asset Classes

  • US Equity
  • International Equity
  • US Aggregate Bonds
  • Cash

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

Holding Trinity Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.

Track Trinity Portfolio in Your Portfolio

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