Alpha-One Momentum
TacticalProBased on research by Bill Sadek · Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04). Exact specification: weekly Dual Momentum with rank-order composite across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, VWEHX as absolute momentum benchmark.
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Launched Apr 2026About this Strategy
Bill Sadek's weekly Dual Momentum strategy. Each Friday, ranks a 12-ETF universe (MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI) by a composite of 1/3/6/9-month rank-order momentum.
The complete strategy logic, asset universe, and rebalancing rules are available to Pro subscribers. This includes the full methodology description, author notes, and implementation details.
Pro subscribers also get access to current signals, full backtest history, and the ability to blend this strategy into custom portfolios.
Strategy Rules
Pro subscribers only
- 1Universe: MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI
- 2Every Friday at close, rank the 12 universe ETFs by return over 4 lookback periods (1/3/6/9 months)
- 3Composite score = weighted sum of ranks across periods (25% each), lower = better
- 4Select the single ETF with lowest composite rank (winner-take-all)
- 5Single Absolute Momentum filter: compute VWEHX composite return and BIL composite return over same 1/3/6/9-month window
- 6If VWEHX composite return > BIL composite return, hold winner. Else, 100% BIL (cash)
Asset Universe
Pro subscribers only
12 instruments this strategy can hold
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Based on research by Bill Sadek
Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04). Exact specification: weekly Dual Momentum with rank-order composite across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, VWEHX as absolute momentum benchmark.
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- weekly
- Next Rebalance
- May 2909:30 ET (3d)
- Variants
- 1
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), Dual Momentum
- Trading Frequency
- Weekly (Friday close)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each Friday
- Universe Size
- 12 ETFs (8 equity/factor sleeves + 4 bond sleeves)
- Momentum Scoring
- Composite rank-order across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, 25% each
- Concentration
- Winner-take-all, 100% to single asset
- Abs Momentum Filter
- Hold winner only if VWEHX composite return exceeds cash (BIL) composite return over the same 1/3/6/9-month window
- Cash Trigger
- VWEHX composite return <= BIL composite return triggers 100% BIL
- Execution
- Friday Market-On-Close (MOC)
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data (9+ months minimum history)
Asset Classes
Alpha-One Momentum at a glance
Alpha-One Momentum is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek across US Mega-Cap Growth, US Large-Cap Growth, IPO Factor, Nasdaq Composite, rebalanced weekly. Backtested 1993-08-20 to 2026-05-25 (32.7 years): 11.3% CAGR, 0.84 Sharpe, -21.5% max drawdown, 13.9% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Weekly
- Period
- 1993-08-20 to 2026-05-25
- CAGR
- 11.3%
- Sharpe
- 0.84
- Max Drawdown
- -21.5%
- Volatility
- 13.9%
Alpha-One Momentum — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Bill Sadek's Alpha-One Momentum is a focused, winner-take-all WEEKLY Dual Momentum strategy that picks the single strongest ETF from a 12-asset universe each Friday. Designed to complement longer-term monthly TAA models by responding more quickly to leadership shifts, while the winner-take-all design avoids the performance dilution typical of multi-position portfolios.
The universe spans five risk-on sleeves (large-cap growth: MGK, VUG, IWY; IPO tilt: FPX; Nasdaq: ONEQ; mid-cap: MDY; low-volatility: USMV, SPLV) and four risk-off sleeves (international bonds: BNDX; US core bonds: BND; ultra-short Treasury: SHV; intermediate Treasury: IEI).
Backtest Performance (1993-08-20 to 2026-05-25)
| Metric | Alpha-One Momentum |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 11.3% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -21.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.93 |
| Annualized Volatility | 13.9% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.53 |
| Total Return | 3234.8% |
| Backtest Period | 32.7 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- weekly
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Source
- Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04). Exact specification: weekly Dual Momentum with rank-order composite across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, VWEHX as absolute momentum benchmark.
Asset Classes
- US Mega-Cap Growth
- US Large-Cap Growth
- IPO Factor
- Nasdaq Composite
- US Mid-Cap
- Low Volatility Factor
- Total International Bonds
- US Core Bonds
- Ultra-Short Treasury
- Intermediate Treasuries
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