Alpha-One Momentum
Universe: MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI. Backtest max drawdown: -21.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Universe: MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI; Every Friday at close, rank the 12 universe ETFs by return over 4 lookback periods (1/3/6/9 months); Composite score = weighted sum of ranks across periods (25%…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Weekly
- Original publication:
- 2026-04; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-08.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (10)
- BNDX: BWX before Jun 4, 2013
- USMV: SPY x0.75 before Oct 20, 2011
- SPLV: USMV before May 5, 2011
- IWY: VUG before Sep 28, 2009
- MGK: VUG before Dec 27, 2007
- BND: AGG before Apr 10, 2007
- IEI: IEF x0.7 before Jan 11, 2007
- FPX: VUG x1.1 before May 24, 2006
- VUG: VIGRX before Jan 30, 2004
- ONEQ: QQQ before Oct 1, 2003
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Universe: MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI. Backtest max drawdown: -21.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The weekly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 941a888a, published 2026-10-05
Is Alpha-One Momentum still working in 2026?
Alpha-One Momentum returned -2.33% over the trailing 12 months and 41.21% over 36 months through 2026-10-08, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 11.01%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -21.51%. The full sample contains 8340 daily NAV observations from 1993-08-20. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-08 it is -6.76% below its high-water mark of 2026-06-30, 3 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.7 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | -2.33% | Not annualized | -8.84% | 252 | 2025-10-08 to 2026-10-08 |
| Trailing 36 months | 41.21% | Not annualized | -21.51% | 754 | 2023-10-06 to 2026-10-08 |
| Full backtest | 3080.13% | 11.01% | -21.51% | 8340 | 1993-08-20 to 2026-10-08 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-06-30, 3 months before 2026-10-08, and it is -6.76% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.7 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Alpha-One Momentum at a glance
Alpha-One Momentum is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek across US Mega-Cap Growth, US Large-Cap Growth, IPO Factor, Nasdaq Composite, rebalanced weekly. Backtested 1993-08-20 to 2026-10-08 (33.1 years): 11.0% CAGR, 0.92 Sharpe, -21.5% max drawdown, 13.9% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Weekly
- Period
- 1993-08-20 to 2026-10-08
- CAGR
- 11.0%
- Sharpe
- 0.92
- Max Drawdown
- -21.5%
- Volatility
- 13.9%
Alpha-One Momentum — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Bill Sadek's Alpha-One Momentum is a focused, winner-take-all WEEKLY Dual Momentum strategy that picks the single strongest ETF from a 12-asset universe each Friday. Designed to complement longer-term monthly TAA models by responding more quickly to leadership shifts, while the winner-take-all design avoids the performance dilution typical of multi-position portfolios.
The universe spans five risk-on sleeves (large-cap growth: MGK, VUG, IWY; IPO tilt: FPX; Nasdaq: ONEQ; mid-cap: MDY; low-volatility: USMV, SPLV) and four risk-off sleeves (international bonds: BNDX; US core bonds: BND; ultra-short Treasury: SHV; intermediate Treasury: IEI).
Alpha-One Momentum: frequently asked questions
- What is Alpha-One Momentum?
- Bill Sadek's weekly Dual Momentum strategy. Each Friday, ranks a 12-ETF universe (MGK, VUG, IWY, FPX, ONEQ, MDY, USMV, SPLV, BNDX, BND, SHV, IEI) by a composite of 1/3/6/9-month rank-order momentum. Holds the top asset 100% only if it beats VWEHX (Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Bond) on the same composite metric, otherwise moves to cash (BIL). Exact port of Bill's Portfolio Visualizer model.
- Who created the Alpha-One Momentum strategy?
- Alpha-One Momentum was developed by Bill Sadek. It is based on Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04). Exact specification: weekly Dual Momentum with rank-order composite across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, VWEHX as absolute momentum benchmark..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Alpha-One Momentum?
- Backtested from 1993-08-20 to 2026-10-08, Alpha-One Momentum returned 11.0% CAGR with a -21.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.92. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Alpha-One Momentum rebalanced?
- Alpha-One Momentum is rebalanced weekly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Alpha-One Momentum a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Alpha-One Momentum is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1993-08-20 to 2026-10-08)
| Metric | Alpha-One Momentum |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 11.0% |
| Max Drawdown | -21.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.92 |
| Sortino | 1.74 |
| Volatility | 13.9% |
| Calmar | 0.51 |
| Total Return | 3076.9% |
| Backtest Period | 33.1 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- weekly
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Source
- Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04). Exact specification: weekly Dual Momentum with rank-order composite across 1/3/6/9-month lookbacks, VWEHX as absolute momentum benchmark.
Asset Classes
- US Mega-Cap Growth
- US Large-Cap Growth
- IPO Factor
- Nasdaq Composite
- US Mid-Cap
- Low Volatility Factor
- Total International Bonds
- US Core Bonds
- Ultra-Short Treasury
- Intermediate Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Alpha-One Momentum alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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