Permanent Portfolio
TacticalFreeconservativeRobustness 1.00Based on research by Harry Browne · Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
This is BestFolio's independent implementation. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
Launched Sep 1999About this Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Strategy Rules
- 1Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL
- 2Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD
- 3If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation
- 4If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash)
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Jul 109:30 ET (13d)
- Variants
- 2
- Risk Category
- conservative
- Regime
- Mixed
- Signal Date
- 2026-06-30
- Tags
- all-weather
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each month
- Universe Size
- 4 assets (SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL)
- Allocation Method
- Equal weight 25% per asset class
- Tactical Variant
- Optional 200-day SMA filter on risky assets (SPY, TLT, GLD)
- Cash Mechanism
- Tactical variant: assets below 200-day SMA → allocation moved to BIL
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data
Asset Classes
Permanent Portfolio at a glance
Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Harry Browne across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, T-Bills/Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1961-02-28 to 2026-06-18 (65.3 years): 7.2% CAGR, 1.09 Sharpe, -17.3% max drawdown, 5.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1961-02-28 to 2026-06-18
- CAGR
- 7.2%
- Sharpe
- 1.09
- Max Drawdown
- -17.3%
- Volatility
- 5.3%
Permanent Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Backtest Performance (1961-02-28 to 2026-06-18)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 7.2% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -17.3% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.09 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.78 |
| Annualized Volatility | 5.3% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.42 |
| Total Return | 9340.5% |
| Backtest Period | 65.3 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Source
- Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- T-Bills/Cash
Categories
Track Permanent Portfolio in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.
Related research
- We Extended Our Backtest to 1974. Here Is the 4% Rule Through the 1970s Stagflation.A few weeks ago we measured safe withdrawal rates across 50+ tactical strategies, and the fairest critique was that our data started in 1990. So we extended HAA's backtest to 1974, through the stagflation that nearly broke the 4% rule. The safe rate came down, and that makes it more believable.
- Which TAA Strategies Actually Work in Europe: A UCITS Substitution GuideEuropean investors hit a wall the moment they try to run a US TAA strategy through IBKR: PRIIPs blocks AVUV, DBC, and most US-domiciled ETFs from retail purchase. The substitutes exist on XETRA and LSE, but they're not all equal. Some strategies translate cleanly (HAA, GEM, Permanent Portfolio). Others lose 50 to 100bps of CAGR per year through methodology drift on the small-cap-value sleeve. A few don't really translate at all. Here's the working playbook, split into three tiers.
- Why 50+ TAA Strategies All Beat the 4% Rule (And Where Bengen Still Wins)We computed Bengen-style rolling 30-year safe withdrawal rates for 80 variants across 51 published TAA strategies. Every single one clears 4%. The best unleveraged TAA strategies (VAA-G4 SmartStack 15.3%, HAA SmartStack 14.2%) sustain real withdrawal rates 3-4x higher than Classic 60/40. Why TAA defeats sequence-of-returns risk, and four honest reasons you should still anchor your retirement plan closer to 4% than 15%.
Related features
- STRATEGY BLENDINGCombine strategies into a single portfolio. See the math.
- PORTFOLIO BUILDERTrack your real allocation alongside what the strategy says.
- STRATEGY COMPARISONSide-by-side: pick 2 to 5 strategies, see them on the same axis.
- CORRELATION ANALYSISDiversification only works when strategies disagree at the right times.