Permanent Portfolio
Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-31. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach, current signal and allocation, and interactive backtest views on this page. The recorded 1999-09 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-07-31
- History boundary
- The recorded 1999-09 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL 2. Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD 3. If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation 4. If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to…
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach, current signal and allocation, and interactive backtest views on this page
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-31. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Based on research by Harry Browne · Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
This is BestFolio's independent implementation. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
Launched Sep 1999About this Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Strategy Rules
- 1Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL
- 2Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD
- 3If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation
- 4If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash)
Asset Universe
4 instruments this strategy can hold
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Sep 109:30 ET (30d)
- Variants
- 2
- Risk Category
- conservative
- Regime
- Mixed
- Signal Date
- 2026-07-31
- Tags
- all-weather
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each month
- Universe Size
- 4 assets (SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL)
- Allocation Method
- Equal weight 25% per asset class
- Tactical Variant
- Optional 200-day SMA filter on risky assets (SPY, TLT, GLD)
- Cash Mechanism
- Tactical variant: assets below 200-day SMA → allocation moved to BIL
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data
Asset Classes
Permanent Portfolio at a glance
Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Harry Browne across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, T-Bills/Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1961-02-28 to 2026-07-31 (65.3 years): 7.2% CAGR, 1.08 Sharpe, -17.3% max drawdown, 5.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1961-02-28 to 2026-07-31
- CAGR
- 7.2%
- Sharpe
- 1.08
- Max Drawdown
- -17.3%
- Volatility
- 5.3%
Permanent Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Permanent Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio?
- Classic four-quadrant allocation: 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Designed to perform in any economic environment. Optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA filter to shift below-trend assets to cash. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio was developed by Harry Browne. It is based on Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1961-02-28 to 2026-07-31, Permanent Portfolio returned 7.2% CAGR with a -17.3% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1961-02-28 to 2026-07-31)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -17.3% |
| Sharpe | 1.08 |
| Sortino | 1.76 |
| Volatility | 5.3% |
| Calmar | 0.41 |
| Total Return | 9091.9% |
| Backtest Period | 65.3 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Source
- Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- T-Bills/Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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- STRATEGY BLENDINGCombine strategies into a single portfolio. See the math.
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