Permanent Portfolio
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL. Current signal: Mixed. Backtest max drawdown: -17.3%.
Current allocation
Permanent Portfolio Static
Current allocation is not available yet for this variant. Preview signals are shown separately in Signals.
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL. Current signal: Mixed. Backtest max drawdown: -17.3%.
Based on research by Harry Browne · Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
This is BestFolio's independent implementation. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
Launched Sep 1999About this Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Strategy Rules
- 1Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL
- 2Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD
- 3If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation
- 4If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash)
Asset Universe
4 instruments this strategy can hold
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Oct 109:30 ET (13d)
- Variants
- 2
- Risk Category
- conservative
- Regime
- Mixed
- Signal Date
- 2026-08-31
- Tags
- all-weather
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each month
- Universe Size
- 4 assets (SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL)
- Allocation Method
- Equal weight 25% per asset class
- Tactical Variant
- Optional 200-day SMA filter on risky assets (SPY, TLT, GLD)
- Cash Mechanism
- Tactical variant: assets below 200-day SMA → allocation moved to BIL
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data
Asset Classes
Research and methodology
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL. Current signal: Mixed. Backtest max drawdown: -17.3%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach, current signal and allocation, and interactive backtest views on this page. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The dates below identify the available data and the next scheduled review.
- Cadence:
- Monthly
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-09-17; latest signal date 2026-08-31.
- History boundary:
- Live signals published since 1999-09; results before that date are a backtest simulation
- Published result:
- Engine daily-reset-v1, data version 6ff99dfd, published 2026-09-10
- Rule / approach
- Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL; Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD; If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation; If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash).
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page.
- Customer action
- Place any required trades in your own brokerage at the next open on Sep 1, 2026. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
- Freshness
- Signal data cutoff Aug 31, 2026 close. Backtest data through 2026-09-17; latest signal date 2026-08-31.
- Next expected action
- Next review Oct 1, 2026 at the open (09:30 ET). Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Is Permanent Portfolio still working in 2026?
Permanent Portfolio returned 8.41% over the trailing 12 months and 48.31% over 36 months through 2026-09-17, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 7.16%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -17.35%. The full sample contains 16844 daily NAV observations from 1961-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 8.41% | Not annualized | -7.10% | 252 | 2025-09-17 to 2026-09-17 |
| Trailing 36 months | 48.31% | Not annualized | -7.10% | 754 | 2023-09-15 to 2026-09-17 |
| Full backtest | 9203.61% | 7.16% | -17.35% | 16844 | 1961-02-28 to 2026-09-17 |
Last verified
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signal History card on this strategy page shows dated model decisions for the selected variant, subject to its access tier. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Permanent Portfolio at a glance
Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Harry Browne across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, T-Bills/Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1961-02-28 to 2026-09-17 (65.5 years): 7.2% CAGR, 1.08 Sharpe, -17.3% max drawdown, 5.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1961-02-28 to 2026-09-17
- CAGR
- 7.2%
- Sharpe
- 1.08
- Max Drawdown
- -17.3%
- Volatility
- 5.3%
Permanent Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Permanent Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio?
- Classic four-quadrant allocation: 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Designed to perform in any economic environment. Optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA filter to shift below-trend assets to cash. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio was developed by Harry Browne. It is based on Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1961-02-28 to 2026-09-17, Permanent Portfolio returned 7.2% CAGR with a -17.3% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1961-02-28 to 2026-09-17)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -17.3% |
| Sharpe | 1.08 |
| Sortino | 2.00 |
| Volatility | 5.3% |
| Calmar | 0.41 |
| Total Return | 9198.4% |
| Backtest Period | 65.5 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Source
- Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- T-Bills/Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Permanent Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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