The 12% Solution (Carter)
The 12% Solution (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2017-01-01 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-08-19
- History boundary
- The recorded 2017-01-01 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. Calculate 3-month total return for all 7 ETFs 2. Equity sleeve (60%): best 3-month return from {SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY, SHY} 3. Bond sleeve (40%): best 3-month return from {TLT, JNK} 4. Allocate 60% to equity winner and 40% to bond winner
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
The 12% Solution (Carter) at a glance
The 12% Solution (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by David Alan Carter across US Equity (Large Cap), US Equity (Mid Cap), US Equity (Small Cap), High Yield Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1985-05-31 to 2026-08-19 (41.1 years): 10.9% CAGR, 0.96 Sharpe, -31.8% max drawdown, 12.0% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- David Alan Carter
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1985-05-31 to 2026-08-19
- CAGR
- 10.9%
- Sharpe
- 0.96
- Max Drawdown
- -31.8%
- Volatility
- 12.0%
The 12% Solution (Carter) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The 12% Solution is a monthly rotation strategy from David Alan Carter's book. It splits the portfolio into a 60% equity sleeve and a 40% bond sleeve, using 3-month momentum to select the best asset within each. The equity sleeve chooses from SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY, and SHY (cash proxy). If SHY wins, the equity sleeve goes to cash; this is the risk-off mechanism. The bond sleeve picks between TLT and JNK.
The 12% Solution (Carter): frequently asked questions
- What is The 12% Solution (Carter)?
- Two-sleeve monthly rotation: 60% in the best-momentum equity ETF (or cash if none outperforms) and 40% in the stronger bond ETF. Uses 3-month return lookback across US large, mid, small cap, and Nasdaq. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the The 12% Solution (Carter) strategy?
- The 12% Solution (Carter) was developed by David Alan Carter. It is based on Carter, D.A. The 12% Solution..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of The 12% Solution (Carter)?
- Backtested from 1985-05-31 to 2026-08-19, The 12% Solution (Carter) returned 10.9% CAGR with a -31.8% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.96. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is The 12% Solution (Carter) rebalanced?
- The 12% Solution (Carter) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is The 12% Solution (Carter) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. The 12% Solution (Carter) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-05-31 to 2026-08-19)
| Metric | The 12% Solution (Carter) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.9% |
| Max Drawdown | -31.8% |
| Sharpe | 0.96 |
| Sortino | 1.28 |
| Volatility | 12.0% |
| Calmar | 0.34 |
| Total Return | 6975.3% |
| Backtest Period | 41.1 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- David Alan Carter
- Source
- Carter, D.A. The 12% Solution.
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Large Cap)
- US Equity (Mid Cap)
- US Equity (Small Cap)
- High Yield Bonds
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Short-Term Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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