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TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-23. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-07-23
History boundary
The recorded 2024 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. Calculate SPY 200-day SMA (no tolerance) 2. If SPY < SMA → DEFENSE: KMLM 30%, GLD 20%, IEI 20%, DFSVX 20%, ZROZ 20% 3. If SPY > SMA → Check QQQ vs SPY 60-day relative performance 4. If QQQ wins → QWIN: TQQQ 25%, UPRO 10%, DBMF 32.5%…
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-23. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of August; scheduled 2026-08-03 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA at a glance

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by BestFolio across US Equity (Leveraged), Managed Futures, Gold, Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23 (40.3 years): 14.4% CAGR, 0.90 Sharpe, -40.2% max drawdown, 17.7% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
BestFolio
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Aggressive
Period
1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23
CAGR
14.4%
Sharpe
0.90
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Volatility
17.7%

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

The TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA strategy combines a leveraged-equity trend filter with managed futures diversification. It uses the SPY 200-day SMA as the primary trend filter, combined with QQQ vs SPY 60-day relative strength to determine the market regime.

Three regimes: - QWin (above SMA + QQQ winning): TQQQ/UPRO + managed futures - SWin (above SMA + SPY winning): Return Stacked ETFs (CTAP + MATE) - Defense (below SMA): managed futures, gold, treasuries, small-cap value

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA: frequently asked questions

What is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA?
Leveraged trend-following using SPY 200-day SMA with QQQ/SPY relative strength. Three regimes: QQQ outperforms triggers leveraged Nasdaq/managed futures; SPY wins triggers return stacking; below trend triggers diversified defense. Monthly.
Who created the TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA strategy?
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA was developed by BestFolio. It is based on Custom strategy by BestFolio (2024). Combines leveraged equity trend-following with managed futures diversification..
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA?
Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23, TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA returned 14.4% CAGR with a -40.2% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.90. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA rebalanced?
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23)

MetricTQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA
CAGR14.4%
Max Drawdown-40.2%
Sharpe0.90
Sortino1.25
Volatility17.7%
Calmar0.36
Total Return22324.4%
Backtest Period40.3 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
aggressive
Variants
2
Author
BestFolio
Source
Custom strategy by BestFolio (2024). Combines leveraged equity trend-following with managed futures diversification.

Asset Classes

  • US Equity (Leveraged)
  • Managed Futures
  • Gold
  • Treasuries
  • Small-Cap Value

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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