Blog

Tactical asset allocation insights, strategy deep dives, and platform updates.

September 18, 2026·4 min read

Daily versus monthly maximum drawdown: the missing path inside the month

Same funds, same year, different worst case: what sampling frequency does to a maximum drawdown, recomputed from our own price data.

TQQQ Quadrant Stack

Daily versus monthly max drawdown for SPY and TQQQ in 2020

September 16, 2026·4 min read

Trinity versus Permanent Portfolio (Gave): 2 defensive cores, 2 different decisions

Similar volatility, different bargains: 3 absolute trend gates against 1 relative gold-bond rule.

Trinity Portfolio Permanent Portfolio (Gave)

Paired bars comparing Trinity and PP Gave on CAGR, Sharpe, max drawdown, volatility

September 15, 2026·3 min read

GTAA and sector rotation use the same filter for different bets

A matched 40.5-year comparison shows how an asset-class trend filter and a concentrated sector ranker create very different drawdowns.

GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation)Sector Rotation (Faber QTAA-Sectors)

Grouped bars comparing CAGR and maximum drawdown magnitude for GTAA and Sector Rotation

September 14, 2026·3 min read

Do strategy risk labels match realized drawdowns?

A catalog audit shows orderly median risk differences across conservative, moderate, and aggressive labels, while exposing how much dispersion a single word can hide.

Grouped bars showing median CAGR and maximum drawdown across conservative, moderate, and aggressive strategy labels

September 11, 2026·4 min read

Generalized Protective Momentum: the breadth rule with an all-cash cliff

How GPM scores 13 assets, scales its defense with breadth, and why the all-cash cliff at 6 is the feature to understand.

GPM (Generalized Protective Momentum)

$Step chart of GPM defensive fraction versus breadth of positive scores, with the cliff at 6$

September 10, 2026·3 min read

A wider trend band can create a deeper drawdown

A volatility-scaled buffer gave a 200-day TQQQ gate room in calm markets and tightened the exit when turbulence was already high.

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)

Line chart showing the trend band's width falling from 9 percent to 1.5 percent as volatility rises from the 0th to the 100th percentile

September 9, 2026·4 min read

TQQQ Quadrant Stack: what 2 trend gates fix, and what they miss

A community-built leveraged portfolio with 2 trend gates: what they fix, what they cost, and the years that hurt.

TQQQ Quadrant Stack

Four stacked allocation bars. Both above: TQQQ 30, ZROZ 20, AVDV 20, RSST 20, GDE 10 percent. Both below: AVDV 20, RSST 20, GDE 10, GLD 25, DBMF 25 percent.

September 8, 2026·3 min read

HAA at 1x, 2x, and 3x: where more leverage stopped helping

A matched 52-year comparison finds that HAA's 2x variant beat 3x on CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, and drawdown while using the same signals and turnover.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Line chart of HAA CAGR and maximum drawdown at 1x, 2x, and 3x leverage

September 8, 2026·23 min read

Overfitting: what it is, why it kills tactical strategies, and why ours survived

A reader called our flagship an overfitting masterpiece. So we ran the tests that could convict it: 700 parameter configurations, a deliberate cherry-pick, 60 random universes, and a post-publication study of 63 strategies. Our published settings ranked 2nd of 700, the pre-2019 ranking predicted nothing about what followed, and the decay evidence leans one way without proving it.

Momentum-Correlation Triplet

Growth of $10,000 on a log scale for the Triplet, HFEA and the S&P 500 since 1987, with their drawdowns below

September 7, 2026·3 min read

The same ETF tells 2 factor stories when the region changes

VEA's return history stays fixed while its beta, size loading, and explained variance move sharply under US and developed-market factor sets.

Grouped bar chart comparing VEA factor loadings under US and developed-market factor sets

September 4, 2026·3 min read

A TIP canary can add return without fixing the worst crash

A year-by-year reproduction shows why a TIPS signal helped in rate shocks, stayed silent in 2008 and 2020, and barely changed the deepest drawdown.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

After the 2022 calendar-year losses, the baseline needs a 48.1% gain to recover the opening balance and the TIP-canary version needs 15.5%.

September 3, 2026·4 min read

Inflation Compass across 75 years: the proxy chain matters as much as the return

75.5 reconstructed years, a 4-branch macro rule, and why the proxy chain deserves as much scrutiny as the 16.88% CAGR.

Inflation Compass

Bar chart comparing CAGR and max drawdown for the five September strategies

September 2, 2026·4 min read

Our quiet flagship: the Momentum-Correlation Triplet, and its new 1.5x version

The strategy I'd show you first: a perfect 1.0 robustness score, a 1.24 Sharpe held for 38.8 years, crashes it sidestepped, and a just-shipped 1.5x version that turns $10,000 into $7.66M instead of $1.97M. Only 5% of members hold it.

Momentum-Correlation Triplet

Four bars: CAGR 1.28 times Standard, volatility 1.42, drawdown magnitude 1.44 and Sharpe 0.90. Dashed reference at the nominal 1.5x target.

September 1, 2026·4 min read

The strategies people actually run, and what our robustness score thinks of them

Member portfolios and the deflated Sharpe leaderboard rank the same 175 variants almost independently: the correlation is 0.156, one popular pick sits far below our fragility cutoff, and 4 perfect scorers have no holders at all.

Raw holding counts divided by counts outside untouched starters: GEM 5.84x, Golden Butterfly 8.41x and Paired Switching 11.08x.

September 1, 2026·5 min read

TAA Scoreboard August 2026: Model Portfolios and 93 Strategies, Month to 1-Year

Our 3 tracked model portfolios lead the post: the conservative blend did +1.4% in August 2026 (+3.4% YTD). Then the full board of 93 published TAA strategies, with the month, year-to-date and 1-year return side by side, because the long view is the one that counts. YTD leaders, the leveraged corner, and the month's best and worst.

Gold Cross-Asset Momentum Growth-Inflation Sector Timing ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)

Implied January–July returns: 1.97%, 6.15%, 10.11%. August returns: 1.4%, 2.5%, 3.9% for the defensive, moderate and aggressive model portfolios.

August 31, 2026·6 min read

Safe Withdrawal Rates: What the CPI Correction Changed

Recorded inflation changed five century-scale withdrawal backtests and moved four binding retirement starts. Corrected figures, methodology and limitations.

Binding retirement starts: Century Momentum Standard and Cash Defensive move from May 1929 to April 1937; Classic 60/40 moves from September 1929 to November 1965; Paired Switching moves from September 1929 to October 1967; UIS stays January 1941.

August 29, 2026·6 min read

When One Momentum Signal Gives Two Answers

A threshold-based allocation rule can produce opposite decisions when one implementation uses total-return data and another uses price-only or unsettled prices.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Total-return TIP score +0.89%; price-only score -9.61%. Their difference is 10.50 percentage points and they fall on opposite sides of zero.

August 26, 2026·1 min read

We're closing the Founder rate on 6 October

The Founder rate closes on 6 October at 11:59pm Pacific. After that, new subscribers pay $29/mo instead of $19/mo. If you're already on Founder, nothing changes for you.

August 25, 2026·6 min read

Your Cash Proxy Can Choose the Winning TAA Strategy

We separated the cash series used by a momentum signal from the cash return held by the portfolio. Across one fixed rule, that accounting choice moved CAGR by 0.87 percentage points.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Three pairs of bars show the CAGR contribution of held cash interest for zero, T-bill and Federal Funds signal hurdles. The T-bill contributions are 0.51, 0.57 and 0.53 percentage points; Federal Funds contributes 0.40, 0.45 and 0.41.

August 25, 2026·5 min read

Five new strategies for September, and one loud warning label

Five strategies join the BestFolio catalog today, led by David Varadi's Inflation Compass and its four-quadrant inflation read. The batch also carries our first community-credited strategy and a leveraged QLD variant wearing the strongest risk label we have ever put on a strategy page.

Inflation Compass TQQQ Quadrant Stack GPM (Generalized Protective Momentum)Trinity Portfolio Permanent Portfolio (Gave)

Scatter plot of card backtest CAGR against Sharpe ratio for the five new strategies and the HAA QLD variant, with the two leveraged strategies marked in red

August 24, 2026·5 min read

SCHG, QQQM, SPMO: 2 of These Are the Same Trade

On matched windows SCHG and QQQM run a 0.978 correlation with identical drawdowns. SPMO is the only one running a strategy, and it cuts both ways: -10% in 2022 while the pair lost a third, then late to the 2023 bounce.

SCHG and QQQM each have reported volatility of 22%; the calculated constant-weight 50/50 illustration is 21.88%, a reduction of 0.12 percentage points.

August 19, 2026·6 min read

A Backtest Has More Than One Start Date: Golden Ratio Rolling Starts

Golden Ratio Dual Gate compounds at 19.9% over the full backtest, yet its rolling 5-year outcomes ranged from 12.1% to 31.7% depending on the start month. We replayed all 160 eligible starts, lump sum and DCA, from the production series.

Golden Ratio Dual Gate (SPY + TIP)

Five-year CAGR minimum 12.1, median 21.1, maximum 31.7 percent. Ten-year minimum 14.1, median 21.3, maximum 25.7 percent.

August 14, 2026·7 min read

Month-End Signal, Next-Day Trade: How Much Delay Can TAA Survive?

We added 1 and 2 business sessions to GEM, HAA and BAA after their canonical next-session trade. HAA and BAA each lost about 1 CAGR point at the 2-session delay.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)

CAGR differences between execution scenarios: GEM loses 0.29 points from canonical to one extra session, then gains 0.21 at two sessions. HAA loses 0.67 then 0.35 points. BAA loses 0.61 then 0.42 points.

August 13, 2026·4 min read

A subscriber caught our backtest using data from the future

A subscriber rebuilt our GGCEM backtest on as-published OECD data and it fell apart. We verified it, published the real-time comparison, and pulled the strategy from our rankings.

Global Growth Cycle Enhanced Momentum (Link)

Article cover: A subscriber caught our backtest using data from the future

August 8, 2026·7 min read

Can Stock-Bond Correlation Warn You Before Treasuries Fail?

Treasuries failed in 2 of 5 fast equity selloffs. We tested whether the prior 60-day stock-bond correlation warned us. The rule caught 2 cases out of 5 and fired constantly in calm markets.

BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Scatter plot of prior stock-bond correlation versus TLT crash returns: 2011 -0.427 and +10.26%; 2018 -0.213 and -3.76%; 2020 -0.523 and +14.23%; 2024 +0.351 and +4.56%; 2025 -0.004 and -3.37%.

August 4, 2026·4 min read

Is that Sharpe real? Inside the Robustness score

Every strategy on BestFolio carries a Robustness score: the probability its Sharpe is a real edge rather than the luckiest pick among the 202 variants we tested, released or not. Here's how it works, which of our own strategies it flags, and why every score just dropped a notch.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)Century Momentum 200-Day SMA Trend

Article cover: Is that Sharpe real? Inside the Robustness score

August 1, 2026·5 min read

TAA Scoreboard July 2026: Model Portfolios and 69 Strategies, Month to 1-Year

Our 3 tracked model portfolios lead the post: the conservative blend did -0.4% in July 2026 (+1.9% YTD). Then the full board of 69 published TAA strategies, with the month, year-to-date and 1-year return side by side, because the long view is the one that counts. YTD leaders, the leveraged corner, and the month's best and worst.

EAA (Elastic Asset Allocation)Carlson's Defense First Momentum-Correlation Triplet

Approximate January-June 2026 returns derived from the July scoreboard: Simple Defensive 2.3%, All Weather 7.7%, House Momentum 15.4%.

July 31, 2026·7 min read

The Hidden Financing Spread Inside a 2x UCITS ETF

LVWC charges 0.60%, but that figure sits after the leveraged index has already paid for borrowing. We trace every layer and use Amundi's older 2x USA fund to show what can be measured today.

Golden Ratio Dual Gate (SPY + TIP)

CL2 fund minus leveraged benchmark: 2024 -1.11 percentage points; 2025 -0.61 points.

July 28, 2026·5 min read

Six New Strategies for August

Six strategies, six distinct return mechanisms. The August batch arrives July 28 with a macro regime model, a two-system momentum blend, a channel breakout, a defensive trend switch, a bond timing model, and one fixed allocation. All six clear the live catalog's median Sharpe of 0.97.

Global Growth Cycle Enhanced Momentum (Link)KISS Momentum Stoken's ACA - Daily [Dynamic Bond]Faber's 12-Month High Switch Predicting US Treasury Returns Desert Portfolio

Article cover: Six New Strategies for August

July 27, 2026·7 min read

DCA Into a Leveraged ETF: The Return Path Matters More Than the Average

Regular contributions helped a synthetic 2x S&P 500 position across long historical windows, but they never removed sequence risk. In 5,000 block-resampled 15-year paths, the leveraged route still trailed 24.74% of the time.

Golden Ratio Dual Gate (SPY + TIP)200-Day SMA Trend

2x trails SPY: ten years, lump sum 40.78%, DCA 41.84%; fifteen years 45.05% and 31.08%; twenty years 42.59% and 7.41%.

July 21, 2026·6 min read

Replicating a Closed-Rules TAA Portfolio With Fully Open Models

A subscriber asked us to add a tactical strategy whose rules are private. We can't implement rules we can't read, so we rebuilt the portfolio's shape from three fully published models. Same Sharpe, same max drawdown, 1.7 points less CAGR.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)

HAA: 14.5% CAGR (%), 11.2% Maximum loss (%); BAA-G4: 14.5% CAGR (%), 20.7% Maximum loss (%); ADM: 15.4% CAGR (%), 25.3% Maximum loss (%); Equal-weight trio: 14.8% CAGR (%), 10.2% Maximum loss (%); 40/30/30 trio: 14.7% CAGR (%), 10.1% Maximum loss (%).

July 14, 2026·7 min read

SPMO's Whole Crash Record Is 8 Years Long. Here Is What Momentum Actually Does in a Bear.

r/ETFs is loading SPMO as a defensive core on the strength of one friendly decade. We put its real record next to a century of momentum data. The visible part is great. The invisible part is the whole risk.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)Century Momentum Composite Momentum

Article cover: SPMO's Whole Crash Record Is 8 Years Long. Here Is What Momentum Actually Does in a Bear.

July 13, 2026·9 min read

The Year 2000 Retiree, Replayed Through 2026

The scariest retirement start date in modern history keeps coming up on r/Fire. We extended the numbers past the usual 2023 cutoff, then re-ran the same cohort on tactical strategies.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)Permanent Portfolio GEM (Global Equities Momentum)

Ending purchasing power as percent of initial: 80/20 39%, Permanent Portfolio 104%, GEM 251%, HAA 629%. Months below starting nominal balance: 317, 44, 47, 29 of 319.

July 10, 2026·7 min read

The Golden Ratio Dual Gate, In Full: Rules, 18 Years of Numbers, and the 2013 Scar

A community strategy we rebuilt on real funds: 50% UPRO on top of a five-asset sleeve, gated by SPY and TIP. Every rule and every number, free, including the year the gate gets wrong.

Golden Ratio Dual Gate (SPY + TIP)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)SmartStack

Annual returns from April 2008 to July 9, 2026. Losses: partial 2008 -10.8%, 2011 -10.4%, 2022 -8.5%. Partial years are hatched.

July 9, 2026·7 min read

Gold, Treasuries, or Managed Futures: What Actually Held Up in the 5 Fastest Selloffs of the ETF Era

A question from r/LETFs: if your signals lag, what do you hold in the gap? We measured every major defensive asset inside the five fastest equity selloffs since 2011. One result surprised us, and its price tag explains why nobody holds it.

SmartStack Permanent Portfolio HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Five-by-seven event return heatmap. Missing DBMF and BTAL history is marked n/a rather than zero. SPY loses in all five events; other assets vary by event.

July 9, 2026·7 min read

FireCalc, cFIREsim, Big ERN: Where the Classic Retirement Calculators Stop, and How We Test Momentum Models

Every retirement calculator assumes you hold a static allocation for 30 years. A r/AllocateSmartly thread asked the obvious question: what if you don't?

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)GEM (Global Equities Momentum)Classic 60/40

Article cover: FireCalc, cFIREsim, Big ERN: Where the Classic Retirement Calculators Stop, and How We Test Momentum Models

July 8, 2026·6 min read

1,100 New ETFs in a Year: How a Momentum Investor Should Read the Flood

Morningstar says a third of this year's ETF launches are leveraged and inverse trading tools. The DRAM mania shows why chasing a theme and running a momentum rule are opposite disciplines that look identical from outside.

Century Momentum Composite Momentum GEM (Global Equities Momentum)

Article cover: 1,100 New ETFs in a Year: How a Momentum Investor Should Read the Flood

July 6, 2026·5 min read

The Hunt for a 2x VT: Four Ways to Lever the Whole World, Compared

r/LETFs keeps asking for a 2x total-world fund. Four products get close, and they are much more different from each other than their names suggest. We ran all four through 18 years of data.

SmartStack HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

VT 1x: 8.9% CAGR (%), 50.2% Maximum loss (%); Daily 2x VT: 10.7% CAGR (%), 80% Maximum loss (%); 100/100 stocks+bonds: 10.4% CAGR (%), 44.4% Maximum loss (%); 90/60 developed: 10.2% CAGR (%), 41% Maximum loss (%).

July 3, 2026·5 min read

The poor man's trend program: three ETFs, one rule, 53 years of data

Beyond Passive asked how close you can get to a futures trend program with three plain ETFs and one monthly trend rule. I rebuilt it on our engine back to 1972: the drawdown cut is real, robust to the signal choice, and honest about where the edge comes from.

RP3 Trend-Tilted Core All Weather (Dalio)Permanent Portfolio Equity + Managed Futures

Static core: 5.6% Return per year (%), 37% Maximum loss (%); Whole-book SMA: 5.6% Return per year (%), 27% Maximum loss (%); Binary momentum: 7.8% Return per year (%), 12% Maximum loss (%); Risk-adjusted mom.: 7.5% Return per year (%), 11% Maximum loss (%); Per-asset SMA: 7.1% Return per year (%), 13% Maximum loss (%); Multi-speed z-score: 6.3% Return per year (%), 11% Maximum loss (%).

June 29, 2026·6 min read

Five Momentum Strategies, One Backtested to 1928

Our latest release is all momentum: five strategies that each measure trend a different way. Three we built in-house, including one we ran back to 1928 to see how a momentum-plus-trend rule survives a full century of crashes. Here is the batch, the backtests, and how they fit together.

Century Momentum Momentum-Correlation Triplet Split-Lookback Momentum Pair Pragmatic Asset Allocation Multi-Asset Momentum

Article cover: Five Momentum Strategies, One Backtested to 1928

June 28, 2026·5 min read

A simple safety brake for leveraged portfolios

Leveraged portfolios shine for years, then a long bear market can erase a decade of gains. Here is a simple, well-worn trend rule that sidesteps the worst of it, and the braked versions of four popular portfolios we just added.

LETF Baseline: SSO / ZROZ / GLD LETF Baseline: UPRO / ZROZ / GLD LETF Baseline: UPRO / ZROZ / GLD / KMLM Regime Detector

Maximum-loss reductions: 14, 17, 20, 28 percentage points. Annual return increases: 1.4, 1.5, 2.5, 2.4 points for the four portfolios.

June 19, 2026·3 min read

New for Founders: connect your AI to BestFolio

Founders can now plug Claude or ChatGPT into their strategies, signals, and portfolios, and use an expanded read-only API. Here is what it does and how to switch it on.

June 19, 2026·6 min read

I blended the king of TAA (HAA) with the king of return stacking (RSST)

One sleeve that carries the leverage and the exit at the same time. Plus the UCITS version EU investors asked for the moment I posted it.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Article cover: I blended the king of TAA (HAA) with the king of return stacking (RSST)

June 15, 2026·3 min read

Automate your TAA with the BestFolio Signals API

Pull any strategy's monthly signal as JSON or CSV with an API key, and feed it straight into QuantConnect, an IBKR bot, or a spreadsheet.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Article cover: Automate your TAA with the BestFolio Signals API

June 11, 2026·11 min read

Walk-Forward Portfolios, Explained: Why Chasing Winning Strategies Fails and What Works Instead

Rotating into whatever strategy performed best recently is the most requested feature in tactical investing, and the most dangerous one. A deep dive into walk-forward optimization: the rolling out-of-sample engine, the 8 ranking criteria, the max-weight cap, and a real portfolio that runs on it.

June 2, 2026·8 min read

We Extended Our Backtest to 1974. Here Is the 4% Rule Through the 1970s Stagflation.

A few weeks ago we measured safe withdrawal rates across 50+ tactical strategies, and the fairest critique was that our data started in 1990. So we extended HAA's backtest to 1974, through the stagflation that nearly broke the 4% rule. The safe rate came down, and that makes it more believable.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)Classic 60/40 All Weather (Dalio)Permanent Portfolio

June 2 study: HAA withdrawal floor falls from 12.7% to 10.4%, a 2.3-point reduction. The 60/40 floor falls from 6.7% to 4.5%, a 2.2-point reduction.

May 22, 2026·11 min read

Seven Leveraged Tactical Strategies: How They Work, What Breaks Them

Seven new strategies in the catalog today, six of them leveraged. They span the named names in the r/LETFs community (RNAProf, u/Wongkok, u/Low-Initiative-1327), a published author (David Alan Carter), and two r/LETFs-classic ideas (200d-SMA TQQQ trend and RSI/SMA dip-buying) that BestFolio has stabilized into shipping form. The point of this writeup is not a sales pitch. It is the rule set, what each one does well, and what breaks it. Kelly 3sig/6sig/9sig deliberately held back: the 9sig 99.73% dot-com drawdown makes that family unsuitable for a wider release.

TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA Low Initiative LETF V2 (Dual SMA + TIP)A-RVol Shifter RPEA (RNAProf's Excellent Adventure)Buy the Dip White Knuckle (Carter)Cash Trigger (Carter)

Two panels compare three A-RVol variants to the original rule. Cash-Only has 0.05 percentage points less CAGR and a 22.01-point shallower drawdown in the published rows.

May 20, 2026·9 min read

Which TAA Strategies Actually Work in Europe: A UCITS Substitution Guide

PRIIPs blocks EU retail from AVUV, DBC and most US-domiciled ETFs, so running a US TAA strategy in Europe means substituting UCITS funds. We map every sleeve to a verified UCITS ticker with its ISIN, grade the substitution tier by tier, and flag the ones where the European version is a different strategy.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)GEM (Global Equities Momentum)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)All Weather (Dalio)Golden Butterfly Permanent Portfolio Classic 60/40 VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)

Article cover: Which TAA Strategies Actually Work in Europe: A UCITS Substitution Guide

May 12, 2026·17 min read

Why 50+ TAA Strategies All Beat the 4% Rule (And Where Bengen Still Wins)

We computed Bengen-style rolling 30-year safe withdrawal rates for 80 variants across 51 published TAA strategies. Every single one clears 4%. The best unleveraged TAA strategies (VAA-G4 SmartStack 15.3%, HAA SmartStack 14.2%) sustain real withdrawal rates 3-4x higher than Classic 60/40. Why TAA defeats sequence-of-returns risk, and four honest reasons you should still anchor your retirement plan closer to 4% than 15%.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)GEM (Global Equities Momentum)Cockroach Portfolio Classic 60/40 Permanent Portfolio (Static)

Article cover: Why 50+ TAA Strategies All Beat the 4% Rule (And Where Bengen Still Wins)

May 6, 2026·18 min read

Core-Satellite Done Right: 2 Static + 3 Tactical Strategies, Sharpe 1.07 Over 33 Years

Five strategies, two static cores plus three tactical satellites, blended at 60/40. The result is Sharpe 1.07 and a -19% maximum drawdown over 33 years, both better than any of the five components held alone. Includes a verified RSST simplification path.

Cockroach Portfolio Return Stacked Quartet HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)

Cockroach: 9.98% CAGR (%), 20.9% Maximum loss (%); Quartet: 13.47% CAGR (%), 30.4% Maximum loss (%); HAA 2x: 23.27% CAGR (%), 34.2% Maximum loss (%); TQQQ Trend: 18.22% CAGR (%), 28.8% Maximum loss (%); ADM Stack: 16.94% CAGR (%), 23.9% Maximum loss (%); Blend: 15.19% CAGR (%), 19.2% Maximum loss (%).

May 1, 2026·12 min read

Five Ways to Survive Everything: The May 2026 Strategy Release

Once a month we ship a small batch of new strategies. May is diversification month. Five strategies, four classic ways a portfolio can fall apart, one BestFolio Original. Here is what we released, how each performs over 30 to 40 years, and how they complement each other in a blended portfolio.

Return Stacked Quartet 4-3-2-1 Dragon Cockroach Portfolio Diversified Dual Momentum KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive)

Article cover: Five Ways to Survive Everything: The May 2026 Strategy Release

April 28, 2026·11 min read

Walk-Forward Portfolios: Two Real Recipes for Blending TAA Strategies

What if you ran five tactical strategies side by side and let the data decide every month which deserve more weight? Two real walk-forward portfolios, 26 to 30 years out-of-sample. Conservative sleeve: 9.3% CAGR with -6.3% max drawdown. Aggressive sleeve: 19.8% CAGR over 30 years.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)PAA (Protective Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)Composite Momentum Carlson's Defense First Tactical Permanent PortfolioRP+Momentum

Conservative and aggressive portfolio drawdown bars. Conservative blend 6.3%; aggressive blend 16.2%; their constituent losses are shown separately.

April 21, 2026·8 min read

Dual Momentum's 2022 Problem: Why Canary Models Worked When GEM Didn't

2022 was the cleanest A/B test the tactical asset allocation community is ever going to get. Classic dual momentum strategies (GEM, ADM, CDM) lost between 10 and 24 percent. Three Keller canary-family strategies (BAA-G4, BAA-G12, HAA) closed the year with positive returns. Same tactical framework, completely different design choices, and a lesson about which defensive asset actually defends when the "safe haven" bond is the thing falling.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)CDM (Composite Dual Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)PAA (Protective Asset Allocation)Permanent Portfolio Golden Butterfly Classic 60/40 Paired Switching (Glenn)

Article cover: Dual Momentum's 2022 Problem: Why Canary Models Worked When GEM Didn't

April 14, 2026·8 min read

BestFolio vs Portfolio Visualizer: Research Tool vs. Implementation Platform

Portfolio Visualizer is the most-cited free portfolio research tool, and for good reason. But research and implementation are different problems. Here is an honest, side-by-side look at where Portfolio Visualizer excels, where BestFolio is built differently, and how to decide which tool fits your workflow.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Article cover: BestFolio vs Portfolio Visualizer: Research Tool vs. Implementation Platform

April 11, 2026·7 min read

9Sig Backtest: Kelly's TQQQ Rules Since 1999

What is 9Sig and does it work? We ran Jason Kelly's rules on observed TQQQ and AGG since 2010 (39.4% CAGR) and on a pre-inception 3x QQQ simulation through the dot-com crash (99.7% drawdown). Full numbers, 2,000 bootstrap scenarios, and why it sits in our rejection log.

kelly-3sig kelly-6sig kelly-9sig

Required recovery gains: 3Sig 109.6%, 6Sig 360.8%, 9Sig 258.4%, calculated from the real-data drawdowns in the article.

April 10, 2026·8 min read

How to Add Gold and Managed Futures Without Giving Up Your Equity Upside

Classic diversification has felt like a tax for a decade — because funding it by selling equities in a bull run is the wrong question. A new Quantica Capital paper (March 2026) reframes it as a stacking problem, and spells out exactly why we built SmartStack™: layer gold and managed futures on top of any TAA strategy without selling what is working, using leveraged ETFs at fractional weight. No margin, no futures account.

HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)Composite Momentum

Article cover: How to Add Gold and Managed Futures Without Giving Up Your Equity Upside

April 8, 2026·7 min read

FactorLens: Free Fama-French Factor Analysis for Any ETF Portfolio

Most investors have no idea what factor bets they are actually making. FactorLens runs a six-factor regression with US, developed-market, and emerging-market benchmarks, then shows where the portfolio's returns come from.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Article cover: FactorLens: Free Fama-French Factor Analysis for Any ETF Portfolio

April 2, 2026·7 min read

Introducing BestFolio Originals: 4 New In-House Strategies + 1 Community Favorite

We built four new strategies from scratch — including Composite Momentum, which achieves a Sharpe ratio above 1.0 over 25+ years. Plus a community-sourced Golden Ratio portfolio. Here is how we designed them.

Composite Momentum VIX Shield Regime Detector Golden Ratio Growth-Inflation Sector Timing

Article cover: Introducing BestFolio Originals: 4 New In-House Strategies + 1 Community Favorite

March 27, 2026·8 min read

Best Brokers for European TAA Investors (2026)

European TAA broker fees checked September 15, 2026: commissions, FX minimums, instrument availability and the cost of a monthly rebalance.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)

For 144 annual orders, fees of €0, €1, €1.25, €3 and €5 per order produce annual commissions of €0, €144, €180, €432 and €720.

March 24, 2026·9 min read

What is the Minimum Portfolio Size for Tactical Asset Allocation?

Tactical strategies involve more trades than buy-and-hold. Between commissions, spreads, subscription tools, and whole-share constraints, what is the smallest portfolio where TAA still makes sense? We run the numbers.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)

Article cover: What is the Minimum Portfolio Size for Tactical Asset Allocation?

March 19, 2026·8 min read

FMTM vs SPMO vs Tactical Momentum

SPMO: 18.9% CAGR since 2015. FMTM is a MarketDesk fund launched in 2025, not Fidelity's FDMO. We match the live windows and compare both to tactical momentum.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)BAA (Bold Asset Allocation)

History length in years: SPY 33.5, SPMO 10.8, MTUM 13.2, FDMO 9.8, QMOM 10.6, FMTM 1.3, HAA 52.4, ADM 40.4, VAA-G4 47.9, GEM 40.4, BAA-G12 40.4.

March 15, 2026·7 min read

Strategy Spotlight: Golden Butterfly — A Smarter Permanent Portfolio With a Small Cap Value Twist

The Golden Butterfly enhances Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio by replacing the cash allocation with small cap value stocks — historically the highest-returning equity factor. With a 7.9% CAGR and just -19.9% max drawdown over 25 years, the Golden Butterfly offers a compelling middle ground between safety-first fixed allocations and aggressive growth strategies.

Golden Butterfly Permanent Portfolio Classic 60/40small-cap-valuefixed-allocation

Article cover: Strategy Spotlight: Golden Butterfly — A Smarter Permanent Portfolio With a Small Cap Value Twist

March 13, 2026·6 min read

Strategy Spotlight: Permanent Portfolio — Harry Browne's All-Weather 4x25% Strategy for Every Market Condition

The Permanent Portfolio divides your money equally among stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash — four assets designed to thrive in different economic environments. Created by Harry Browne in the 1980s, this fixed allocation strategy has delivered steady 7.1% annual returns with remarkably low drawdowns, making it a favorite among conservative investors seeking simplicity and resilience.

Permanent Portfolio Golden Butterfly Classic 60/40

Article cover: Strategy Spotlight: Permanent Portfolio — Harry Browne's All-Weather 4x25% Strategy for Every Market Condition

March 12, 2026·6 min read

Strategy Spotlight: GEM (Global Equities Momentum) — The Dual Momentum Classic That Changed ETF Investing

Global Equities Momentum (GEM) is Gary Antonacci's flagship dual momentum strategy that rotates between U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds based on 12-month returns. With a backtest CAGR of 11.3% and a systematic approach to avoiding bear markets, GEM remains one of the most popular tactical asset allocation strategies for individual investors.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)CDM (Composite Dual Momentum)

Article cover: Strategy Spotlight: GEM (Global Equities Momentum) — The Dual Momentum Classic That Changed ETF Investing

March 10, 2026·9 min read

How Tactical Asset Allocation Protects Your Portfolio During Market Crises

Market crises are inevitable. Tactical asset allocation strategies use momentum, trend, and volatility signals to systematically reduce exposure before the worst damage is done. Here is how TAA performed during four major crises.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)Carlson's Defense First Permanent Portfolio DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)

Article cover: How Tactical Asset Allocation Protects Your Portfolio During Market Crises

March 7, 2026·9 min read

GEM vs ADM vs CDM: A Comparison on the Same Dates

GEM, ADM and CDM compared from December 1987 through August 2026: shared-window returns, month-end drawdowns, rule differences and historical-proxy limits.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)CDM (Composite Dual Momentum)

Shared-window CAGR / month-end maximum drawdown: GEM 11.22% / -19.77%; ADM 14.65% / -25.34%; CDM 8.94% / -13.89%; Classic 60/40 9.09% / -31.22%.

February 24, 2026·10 min read

How to Build a Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio in 5 Steps

A practical, step-by-step guide to building your first tactical asset allocation portfolio. From choosing strategies to executing monthly rebalances.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum)

Article cover: How to Build a Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio in 5 Steps

February 10, 2026·9 min read

Golden Butterfly vs All Weather vs 60/40: Which Fixed Portfolio Wins?

Three of the most popular fixed-allocation portfolios compared head-to-head. We break down historical performance, drawdowns, and who each portfolio is actually best for.

Golden Butterfly All Weather (Dalio)Classic 60/40

Article cover: Golden Butterfly vs All Weather vs 60/40: Which Fixed Portfolio Wins?

January 28, 2026·11 min read

BestFolio vs AllocateSmartly: Honest Comparison

BestFolio Pro is $29/mo vs AllocateSmartly from $49/mo. We compare coverage, walk-forward evidence, UCITS support, and what each does better.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)GTAA (Global Tactical Asset Allocation)Adaptive Asset Allocation

Article cover: BestFolio vs AllocateSmartly: Honest Comparison

January 15, 2026·8 min read

What Is Tactical Asset Allocation? Rules, Risks and a Monthly Plan

How tactical allocation changes portfolio weights, how it differs from a fixed 60/40 portfolio, and what to check before following a monthly signal.

GEM (Global Equities Momentum)VAA (Vigilant Asset Allocation)HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)

Stock and bond targets: strategic 60/40 holds 60% stocks and 40% bonds; GEM holds 100% equities under its equity signal or 100% bonds under its defensive signal.