Return Stacked Quartet
Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation. Backtest max drawdown: -28.0%.
Strategy & methodology
Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation.
- Strategy type:
- Fixed allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Annual
- Original publication:
- 2024; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-27.
Simulated history
The worst fall, -28.0% (Oct 19, 1987), happened while it held GDE, NTSX and RSST before those funds existed, so it is simulated.
Stand-in funds and until when (4)
- RSST: SPY + KMLM composite before Sep 6, 2023
- GDE: SPY + GLD composite before Mar 17, 2022
- NTSX: SPY + IEF composite before Aug 2, 2018
- ZROZ: TLT x1.4 before Nov 4, 2009
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation. Backtest max drawdown: -28.0%. This is a fixed-allocation portfolio. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The annual signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version adeaa4c1, published 2026-10-26
Is Return Stacked Quartet still working in 2026?
Return Stacked Quartet returned 7.25% over the trailing 12 months and 78.33% over 36 months through 2026-10-28, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 13.26%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -27.98%. The full sample contains 10537 daily NAV observations from 1985-01-02. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-28 it is -3.04% below its high-water mark of 2026-06-02, 5 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.3 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 7.25% | Not annualized | -10.77% | 252 | 2025-10-28 to 2026-10-28 |
| Trailing 36 months | 78.33% | Not annualized | -15.84% | 753 | 2023-10-27 to 2026-10-28 |
| Full backtest | 18120.89% | 13.26% | -27.98% | 10537 | 1985-01-02 to 2026-10-28 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-06-02, 5 months before 2026-10-28, and it is -3.04% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.3 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Return Stacked Quartet at a glance
Return Stacked Quartet is a fixed-allocation portfolio by BestFolio Research, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1985-01-02 to 2026-10-27 (41.8 years): 13.2% CAGR, 0.79 Sharpe, -28.0% max drawdown, 13.2% volatility.
- Type
- Fixed Allocation
- Author
- BestFolio Research
- Rebalancing
- Annual
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1985-01-02 to 2026-10-27
- CAGR
- 13.2%
- Sharpe
- 0.79
- Max Drawdown
- -28.0%
- Volatility
- 13.2%
Return Stacked Quartet — Fixed Allocation Portfolio
Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation. Each leg is a return-stacked ETF (NTSX, GDE, RSST) or a long-duration Treasury sleeve (ZROZ), giving roughly 1.4x effective exposure with broad diversification across return regimes. Weights (20/20/30/30) selected to maximize Sharpe over a 1986-2026 backtest sweep using synthetic pre-inception history for the stacked ETFs.
Return Stacked Quartet: frequently asked questions
- What is Return Stacked Quartet?
- Capital-efficient four-way blend that stacks equity, bonds, gold, and managed futures into a single annual-rebalance allocation. Each leg is a return-stacked ETF (NTSX, GDE, RSST) or a long-duration Treasury sleeve (ZROZ), giving roughly 1.4x effective exposure with broad diversification across return regimes. Weights (20/20/30/30) selected to maximize Sharpe over a 1986-2026 backtest sweep using synthetic pre-inception history for the stacked ETFs.
- Who created the Return Stacked Quartet strategy?
- Return Stacked Quartet was developed by BestFolio Research.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Return Stacked Quartet?
- Backtested from 1985-01-02 to 2026-10-27, Return Stacked Quartet returned 13.2% CAGR with a -28.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.79. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Return Stacked Quartet rebalanced?
- Return Stacked Quartet is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Return Stacked Quartet a fixed or tactical strategy?
- Return Stacked Quartet is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.
Backtest Performance (1985-01-02 to 2026-10-27)
| Metric | Return Stacked Quartet |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 13.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -28.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.79 |
| Sortino | 1.31 |
| Volatility | 13.2% |
| Calmar | 0.47 |
| Total Return | 17905.4% |
| Backtest Period | 41.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Fixed / Strategic
- Rebalancing
- annual
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- BestFolio Research
Further reading
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