LT Gain (DMS)
Compute DMS score for IWB and BIL. Backtest max drawdown: -35.1%.
Strategy & methodology
Compute DMS score for IWB and BIL; If IWB >= BIL → RISK-ON: IWB (or SSO/UPRO if Smart Leverage active, up to 12 months); If IWB < BIL → RISK-OFF: TLT if fast score positive, else VGSH (sticky).
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2021; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-21.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1985
- 15.3% a year, worst fall -35.1% (May 14, 2002, a simulated 2x)
- Since SSO launched (Jun 21, 2006)
- 17.6% a year, worst fall -29.2% (Dec 28, 2022)
Stand-in funds and until when (4)
- SSO: simulated 2x SPY before Jun 21, 2006
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SHY: VFISX before Jul 26, 2002
- IWB: SPY before May 19, 2000
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Compute DMS score for IWB and BIL. Backtest max drawdown: -35.1%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 8515d2e6, published 2026-10-17
Is LT Gain (DMS) still working in 2026?
LT Gain (DMS) returned 4.39% over the trailing 12 months and 76.00% over 36 months through 2026-10-22, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 15.24%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -35.08%. The full sample contains 10544 daily NAV observations from 1985-01-01. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-22 it is -1.98% below its high-water mark of 2026-10-06, 16 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.9 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 4.39% | Not annualized | -8.86% | 252 | 2025-10-22 to 2026-10-22 |
| Trailing 36 months | 76.00% | Not annualized | -16.70% | 754 | 2023-10-20 to 2026-10-22 |
| Full backtest | 37552.77% | 15.24% | -35.08% | 10544 | 1985-01-01 to 2026-10-22 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-10-06, 16 days before 2026-10-22, and it is -1.98% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.9 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
LT Gain (DMS) at a glance
LT Gain (DMS) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Randy Harris across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1985-01-01 to 2026-10-21 (41.8 years): 15.3% CAGR, 0.75 Sharpe, -35.1% max drawdown, 19.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Randy Harris
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1985-01-01 to 2026-10-21
- CAGR
- 15.3%
- Sharpe
- 0.75
- Max Drawdown
- -35.1%
- Volatility
- 19.3%
LT Gain (DMS) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
LT Gain is a US equity momentum strategy from Randy Harris's DMS. It rotates between US equities (IWB) and treasuries only. The LT Gain+ variant uses SSO (2x) and LT Gain++ uses UPRO (3x) for Smart Leverage after >15% drawdowns.
LT Gain (DMS): frequently asked questions
- What is LT Gain (DMS)?
- Single-asset momentum strategy comparing US large cap vs T-bills by composite 1/3/6-month score. Smart Leverage activates 2x/3x after 15% drawdowns. Risk-off uses Treasury Duration Limiter for bond selection. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the LT Gain (DMS) strategy?
- LT Gain (DMS) was developed by Randy Harris.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of LT Gain (DMS)?
- Backtested from 1985-01-01 to 2026-10-21, LT Gain (DMS) returned 15.3% CAGR with a -35.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.75. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is LT Gain (DMS) rebalanced?
- LT Gain (DMS) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is LT Gain (DMS) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. LT Gain (DMS) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-01-01 to 2026-10-21)
| Metric | LT Gain (DMS) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 15.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -35.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.75 |
| Sortino | 1.25 |
| Volatility | 19.3% |
| Calmar | 0.43 |
| Total Return | 37509.4% |
| Backtest Period | 41.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Randy Harris
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Short-Term Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding LT Gain (DMS) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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