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Simple Path to Wealth

Simple Path to Wealth is a fixed-allocation portfolio reviewed on a annual cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2016 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Annual
Backtest data through
2026-08-19
History boundary
The recorded 2016 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. Allocate 75% to VTI (Vanguard Total US Stock Market) 2. Allocate 25% to BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market) 3. Rebalance annually or when drift exceeds threshold
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of 2027 (annual); scheduled 2027-01-04 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Simple Path to Wealth at a glance

Simple Path to Wealth is a fixed-allocation portfolio by JL Collins across US Equity, US Bonds, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1987-12-31 to 2026-08-19 (38.5 years): 10.0% CAGR, 0.89 Sharpe, -43.4% max drawdown, 13.5% volatility.

Type
Fixed Allocation
Author
JL Collins
Rebalancing
Annual
Risk
Aggressive
Period
1987-12-31 to 2026-08-19
CAGR
10.0%
Sharpe
0.89
Max Drawdown
-43.4%
Volatility
13.5%

Simple Path to Wealth Fixed Allocation Portfolio

JL Collins' Simple Path to Wealth portfolio, the foundational text of the FIRE movement. Ultra-simple: 75% Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) and 25% Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND). Collins argues most investors are better off with just two funds than any more complex allocation.

Simple Path to Wealth: frequently asked questions

What is Simple Path to Wealth?
Ultra-simple 2-fund portfolio: 75% US total market, 25% bonds. Hugely popular in the FIRE community.
Who created the Simple Path to Wealth strategy?
Simple Path to Wealth was developed by JL Collins. It is based on Collins, JL. The Simple Path to Wealth (2016).
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Simple Path to Wealth?
Backtested from 1987-12-31 to 2026-08-19, Simple Path to Wealth returned 10.0% CAGR with a -43.4% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.89. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Simple Path to Wealth rebalanced?
Simple Path to Wealth is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Simple Path to Wealth a fixed or tactical strategy?
Simple Path to Wealth is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.

Backtest Performance (1987-12-31 to 2026-08-19)

MetricSimple Path to Wealth
CAGR10.0%
Max Drawdown-43.4%
Sharpe0.89
Sortino1.25
Volatility13.5%
Calmar0.23
Total Return3813.0%
Backtest Period38.5 years

Strategy Details

Type
Fixed / Strategic
Rebalancing
annual
Risk Level
aggressive
Variants
2
Author
JL Collins
Source
Collins, JL. The Simple Path to Wealth (2016)

Asset Classes

  • US Equity
  • US Bonds

Categories

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