What is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?

Asymmetric SPY 200-day SMA band that switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x (TQQQ) and 1x (QQQ). When SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA, hold 100% TQQQ; when it closes more than 3% below, drop to 100% QQQ. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash. An optional blow-off-top guard (off in the standard variant) can deleverage when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA. Single-asset 3x leverage on the aggressive leg makes this a high-drawdown satellite, not a core.

Who created the TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) strategy?

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) was developed by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ). It is based on Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'.

What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?

Backtested from 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20, TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) returned 27.3% CAGR with a -95.8% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.71. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How often is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) rebalanced?

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.

Is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) a tactical asset allocation strategy?

Yes. TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)

Name: TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%), Backtest Time Series
Creator: BestFolio
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a daily cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-20. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2025 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence: Daily
Backtest data through: 2026-07-20
History boundary: The recorded 2025 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach: 1. Each day, compute SPY's 200-day SMA and the +4% / -3% bands 2. If SPY close > SMA200 × 1.04 → 100% TQQQ (aggressive) 3. If SPY close < SMA200 × 0.97 → 100% QQQ (defensive) 4. Between the bands → hold the current position (buffer…
BestFolio supplies: the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action: Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions: net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness: The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-20. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action: Today (market open); scheduled 2026-07-22 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Extreme risk: not investable

This strategy's worst historical drawdown is about -96%, a near-total loss from peak. It is published for research and illustration only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, and you should not allocate capital you are not prepared to lose almost entirely.

This warning is about holding it on its own. Inside some diversified BestFolio portfolios a strategy like this appears only as a small, capped sleeve, where its risk is bounded and offset by holdings that behave differently.

For lower-risk, diversified strategies, browse the full catalog.

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) at a glance

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ) across US Equity (Leveraged), US Equity, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20 (40.7 years): 27.3% CAGR, 0.71 Sharpe, -95.8% max drawdown, 57.1% volatility.

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Author: XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
Rebalancing: Daily
Risk: Aggressive
Period: 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20
CAGR: 27.3%
Sharpe: 0.71
Max Drawdown: -95.8%
Volatility: 57.1%

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

The TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x and 1x using an asymmetric trend band on the S&P 500. It tracks SPY's daily close against its 200-day SMA: a close more than 4% above the average flips the position to 100% TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100), and a close more than 3% below flips it to 100% QQQ (1x). Between the two bands the position is held, so the asymmetric buffer is the whipsaw filter: harder to re-leverage (+4%), quicker to step down (-3%).

The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash or bonds, so the strategy is always invested in the Nasdaq-100. An optional blow-off-top guard, disabled in the standard variant, can deleverage from TQQQ down to QQQ (and ultimately to cash) when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA, a rare 'dot-com' tail guard suggested by the author.

TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%): frequently asked questions

What is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?: Asymmetric SPY 200-day SMA band that switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x (TQQQ) and 1x (QQQ). When SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA, hold 100% TQQQ; when it closes more than 3% below, drop to 100% QQQ. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash. An optional blow-off-top guard (off in the standard variant) can deleverage when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA. Single-asset 3x leverage on the aggressive leg makes this a high-drawdown satellite, not a core.
Who created the TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) strategy?: TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) was developed by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ). It is based on Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'.
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?: Backtested from 1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20, TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) returned 27.3% CAGR with a -95.8% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.71. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) rebalanced?: TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) a tactical asset allocation strategy?: Yes. TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1985-10-16 to 2026-07-20)

Metric	TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)
CAGR	27.3%
Max Drawdown	-95.8%
Sharpe	0.71
Sortino	1.21
Volatility	57.1%
Calmar	0.28
Total Return	1820193.9%
Backtest Period	40.7 years

Strategy Details

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing: daily
Risk Level: aggressive
Variants: 2
Author: XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
Source: Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'

Asset Classes

US Equity (Leveraged)
US Equity

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