Extreme risk: not investable
This strategy's worst historical drawdown is about -96%, a near-total loss from peak. It is published for research and illustration only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, and you should not allocate capital you are not prepared to lose almost entirely.
For lower-risk, diversified strategies, browse the full catalog.
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) at a glance
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ) across US Equity (Leveraged), US Equity, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-10-16 to 2026-06-06 (40.6 years): 27.6% CAGR, 0.72 Sharpe, -95.8% max drawdown, 57.0% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1985-10-16 to 2026-06-06
- CAGR
- 27.6%
- Sharpe
- 0.72
- Max Drawdown
- -95.8%
- Volatility
- 57.0%
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x and 1x using an asymmetric trend band on the S&P 500. It tracks SPY's daily close against its 200-day SMA: a close more than 4% above the average flips the position to 100% TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100), and a close more than 3% below flips it to 100% QQQ (1x). Between the two bands the position is held, so the asymmetric buffer is the whipsaw filter: harder to re-leverage (+4%), quicker to step down (-3%).
The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash or bonds, so the strategy is always invested in the Nasdaq-100. An optional blow-off-top guard, disabled in the standard variant, can deleverage from TQQQ down to QQQ (and ultimately to cash) when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA, a rare 'dot-com' tail guard suggested by the author.
Backtest Performance (1985-10-16 to 2026-06-06)
| Metric | TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 27.6% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -95.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.22 |
| Annualized Volatility | 57.0% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.29 |
| Total Return | 1997885.0% |
| Backtest Period | 40.6 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
- Source
- Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Leveraged)
- US Equity
Categories
Track TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.