Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek)
TacticalProBased on research by Bill Sadek · Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04).
This is BestFolio's independent implementation. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
Launched 2026About this Strategy
Bill Sadek's Dynamic Macro Allocation model. 7-ETF macro universe, multi-period performance-weighted momentum (1/3/6/9 months, 25% each), top-2 selection with Geometric Increasing weights (67%/33%), 6-month SMA trend filter per selected asset (failed assets move to cash).
The complete strategy logic, asset universe, and rebalancing rules are available to Pro subscribers. This includes the full methodology description, author notes, and implementation details.
Pro subscribers also get access to current signals, full backtest history, and the ability to blend this strategy into custom portfolios.
Strategy Rules
Pro subscribers only
- 1Universe: MGK, PDBC, GLDM, BOND, VGLT, MINT, VCSH
- 2Each month, compute 1/3/6/9 month returns per asset and average (25% each)
- 3Rank assets by composite return, select top 2
- 4Assign Geometric Increasing weights: top-ranked 33.3%, second-ranked 66.7% (PV convention)
- 5Per-asset trend filter: if price < 6-month SMA, move slice to BIL
- 6If both fail → 100% BIL (defensive)
Asset Universe
Pro subscribers only
7 instruments this strategy can hold
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Based on research by Bill Sadek
Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04).
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Jun 109:30 ET (6d)
- Variants
- 1
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each month
- Universe Size
- 7 ETFs across equity, commodities, gold, bonds
- Momentum Scoring
- Performance-weighted 1/3/6/9-month returns (25% each)
- Selection
- Top 2 by composite return
- Weighting
- Geometric Increasing (top-ranked 33.3%, second 66.7%)
- Trend Filter
- 6-month SMA per selected asset — fails → cash
- Cash Trigger
- Per-asset MA filter; fully defensive when both top assets fail
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data (9 months + MA minimum history)
Asset Classes
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) at a glance
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Bill Sadek across US Mega-Cap Growth, Diversified Commodities, Gold, US Core Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1993-11-30 to 2026-05-25 (32.5 years): 12.0% CAGR, 1.06 Sharpe, -14.5% max drawdown, 11.2% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Period
- 1993-11-30 to 2026-05-25
- CAGR
- 12.0%
- Sharpe
- 1.06
- Max Drawdown
- -14.5%
- Volatility
- 11.2%
Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Bill Sadek's Dynamic Macro Allocation model, contributed April 2026.
Each month, the 7-ETF macro universe (MGK mega-cap growth, PDBC diversified commodities, GLDM gold, BOND core bonds, VGLT long Treasury, MINT ultra-short bonds, VCSH short-term corporates) is scored using a composite momentum across four lookback periods — 1, 3, 6 and 9 months — weighted 25% each. Unlike rank-order weighting (which Alpha-One uses), this strategy uses 'weight performance' which averages the actual returns across periods.
Backtest Performance (1993-11-30 to 2026-05-25)
| Metric | Dynamic Macro Allocation (Sadek) |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 12.0% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -14.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.06 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.37 |
| Annualized Volatility | 11.2% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.83 |
| Total Return | 3855.8% |
| Backtest Period | 32.5 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Bill Sadek
- Source
- Contributed by Bill Sadek (2026-04).
Asset Classes
- US Mega-Cap Growth
- Diversified Commodities
- Gold
- US Core Bonds
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Ultra-Short Bonds
- Short-Term Corporates
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