KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive)
KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-07-23. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2019-01-24 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-07-23
- History boundary
- The recorded 2019-01-24 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. If any canary (SHY, IEF) has negative 13612W → 50% SHY + 50% IEF 2. If all canary positive → top 6 of 8 offensive assets by 13612W, equal weight
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-07-23. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of August; scheduled 2026-08-03 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) at a glance
KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by David Varadi / Ilya Kipnis across US Equity, International Equity, Emerging Markets, Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23 (40.3 years): 7.3% CAGR, 0.97 Sharpe, -25.1% max drawdown, 7.5% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- David Varadi / Ilya Kipnis
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23
- CAGR
- 7.3%
- Sharpe
- 0.97
- Max Drawdown
- -25.1%
- Volatility
- 7.5%
KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Kipnis Defensive Adaptive uses a canary universe of SHY and IEF (bond momentum) to toggle between offensive (top 6 of 8 assets by 13612W) and defensive (equal-weight SHY + IEF). Supports optional TBSZ stacking.
KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive): frequently asked questions
- What is Kipnis Defensive Adaptive?
- Defensive adaptive allocation using Treasury canary assets (SHY, IEF) for regime detection. All canaries positive triggers top-N offensive momentum picks; any negative switches to equal-weight defensive bonds. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) strategy?
- KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) was developed by David Varadi / Ilya Kipnis. It is based on Varadi, D. & Kipnis, I. Defensive Adaptive Asset Allocation (KDA).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive)?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23, KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) returned 7.3% CAGR with a -25.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.97. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) rebalanced?
- KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-07-23)
| Metric | KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -25.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.97 |
| Sortino | 1.49 |
| Volatility | 7.5% |
| Calmar | 0.29 |
| Total Return | 1627.0% |
| Backtest Period | 40.3 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 3
- Author
- David Varadi / Ilya Kipnis
- Source
- Varadi, D. & Kipnis, I. Defensive Adaptive Asset Allocation (KDA)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- Emerging Markets
- Bonds
- TIPS
- Commodities
- Gold
- Short-Term Treasuries
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Track KDA (Kipnis Defensive Adaptive) in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.