Thomas Carlson's Adaptive 60/40 modernizes the classic balanced portfolio by rethinking the defensive sleeve. The 60% equity allocation (SPY) is held constant; the 40% "ballast" is no longer a static bond position but rotates each month into whichever liquid macro hedge is showing the most relative strength.

The premise is that the traditional bond ballast can fail exactly when it is needed: 2022 was a vivid example, when rising rates turned duration into a liability rather than a hedge. Instead of anchoring to bonds, the strategy rotates the 40% sleeve into the single strongest of long Treasuries (TLT), gold (GLDM) or broad commodities (PDBC), ranked by the equal-weighted average of 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns. No leverage, no forecasts, one trade a month.