9% Signal (Kelly) at a glance
9% Signal (Kelly) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Jason Kelly, rebalanced monthly..
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Jason Kelly
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
9% Signal (Kelly) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Jason Kelly
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Related research
- Kelly 9Sig Revisited: What We Got Wrong, What the Faithful Rules Actually ShowOur April 11 piece arguing 9Sig would ruin you used a flawed engine. We rebuilt it with the full Kelly rulebook: 10% bond floor, 90% buying-power throttle, 8-quarter 30-Down lookback, skip-2-sell-signals, base reset, spike reset. The corrected 9Sig drew down 99.7% through the dot-com crash, worse than the 99.3% we originally reported. The closed-system thesis survives. Here are the receipts.
- Why Jason Kelly's 9Sig Will Ruin You: A 99% Drawdown Hidden in Plain SightKelly's 3Sig, 6Sig, and 9Sig systems are marketed as mechanical rebalancing genius. Our walk-forward backtest confirms the headline CAGR (21% for 9Sig) but exposes a 99% max drawdown and a Sharpe ratio that does not improve with aggression. Here is why we built a rejection log instead of listing it.