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PAA (Protective Asset Allocation)

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2016-04-05 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-08-19
History boundary
The recorded 2016-04-05 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. Compute MOM = (price / SMA(13 month-end prices)) - 1 for all 12 universe assets 2. Count n = number of assets with MOM > 0 3. Compute n1 = protection_level × N / 4 (default protection_level=2, N=12 → n1=6) 4. Bond fraction BF = (N - n)…
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) at a glance

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning across US Equity, Small Cap, Tech, Europe, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19 (40.3 years): 9.4% CAGR, 1.29 Sharpe, -14.2% max drawdown, 8.0% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning
Rebalancing
Monthly
Risk
Moderate
Period
1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19
CAGR
9.4%
Sharpe
1.29
Max Drawdown
-14.2%
Volatility
8.0%

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Protective Asset Allocation (PAA) by Keller & Keuning uses a breadth-based approach to determine how much of the portfolio should be in crash protection (bonds) vs. risky assets. It counts how many of the 12 universe assets have positive SMA(13) momentum, then computes a bond fraction that scales smoothly from 0% to 100% based on a configurable protection level. The risky portion is allocated equally across the top 6 assets ranked by momentum. This gradual scaling provides a smoother risk-on/risk-off transition than the binary VAA approach.

PAA (Protective Asset Allocation): frequently asked questions

What is Protective Asset Allocation?
Breadth-based crash protection across 12 risky assets. The fraction with positive SMA momentum determines the bond buffer -- more negative assets means more IEF protection. Remaining capital goes to top momentum picks. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) strategy?
PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) was developed by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning. It is based on Keller, W.J. & Keuning, J.W. (2016). Protective Asset Allocation (PAA).
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of PAA (Protective Asset Allocation)?
Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19, PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) returned 9.4% CAGR with a -14.2% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.29. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) rebalanced?
PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19)

MetricPAA (Protective Asset Allocation)
CAGR9.4%
Max Drawdown-14.2%
Sharpe1.29
Sortino2.13
Volatility8.0%
Calmar0.66
Total Return3614.6%
Backtest Period40.3 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Risk Level
moderate
Variants
2
Author
Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem Keuning
Source
Keller, W.J. & Keuning, J.W. (2016). Protective Asset Allocation (PAA)

Asset Classes

  • US Equity
  • Small Cap
  • Tech
  • Europe
  • Japan
  • Emerging Markets
  • REITs
  • Commodities
  • Gold
  • High Yield Bonds
  • Corporate Bonds
  • Long-Term Treasuries

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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