Growth-Trend Timing
TacticalPromoderateBased on research by Philosophical Economics · Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing.
This is BestFolio's independent implementation. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
Launched Jan 18, 2016About this Strategy
Dual-signal regime strategy using HYG/IEF ratio as a growth proxy and SPY 200-day SMA as a trend filter. Both bullish holds 100% equities; one bullish gives 50/50; neither holds 100% bonds.
The complete strategy logic, asset universe, and rebalancing rules are available to Pro subscribers. This includes the full methodology description, author notes, and implementation details.
Pro subscribers also get access to current signals, full backtest history, and the ability to blend this strategy into custom portfolios.
Strategy Rules
Pro subscribers only
- 1Growth signal: HYG/IEF price ratio > its 12-month SMA?
- 2Trend signal: SPY price > 200-day SMA?
- 3Both bullish → 100% SPY
- 4One bullish, one bearish → 50% SPY + 50% TLT
- 5Both bearish → 100% TLT
Key Differentiators
Research Source
Based on research by Philosophical Economics
Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing.
Strategy Info
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Jun 109:30 ET (10d)
- Variants
- 1
- Risk Category
- moderate
- Tags
- momentum
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Signal 1
- HYG/IEF ratio vs its 12-month SMA (growth/credit proxy)
- Signal 2
- SPY price vs 200-day SMA (trend filter)
- Regimes
- 3 (Aggressive / Mixed / Defensive)
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data
Asset Classes
Growth-Trend Timing at a glance
Growth-Trend Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Philosophical Economics across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-05-20 (40.2 years): 11.1% CAGR, 0.84 Sharpe, -33.1% max drawdown, 13.6% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Philosophical Economics
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-05-20
- CAGR
- 11.1%
- Sharpe
- 0.84
- Max Drawdown
- -33.1%
- Volatility
- 13.6%
Growth-Trend Timing — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Growth-Trend Timing is a dual-signal regime strategy from the Philosophical Economics blog. It combines a credit spread signal (HYG/IEF ratio vs 12-month SMA) with a price trend filter (SPY vs 200-day SMA) to determine equity vs bond exposure.
The two signals combine into three regimes: both bullish → 100% SPY; one bullish → 50/50 SPY/TLT; both bearish → 100% TLT. This graduated approach avoids all-or-nothing whipsaws by using a middle ground when the two indicators disagree.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-05-20)
| Metric | Growth-Trend Timing |
|---|---|
| Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) | 11.1% |
| Maximum Drawdown | -33.1% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.04 |
| Annualized Volatility | 13.6% |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.33 |
| Total Return | 6726.8% |
| Backtest Period | 40.2 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Philosophical Economics
- Source
- Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing.
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
Categories
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