What is Growth-Trend Timing?

Dual-signal regime strategy using HYG/IEF ratio as a growth proxy and SPY 200-day SMA as a trend filter. Both bullish holds 100% equities; one bullish gives 50/50; neither holds 100% bonds. Monthly rebalancing.

Who created the Growth-Trend Timing strategy?

Growth-Trend Timing was developed by Philosophical Economics. It is based on Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing..

What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Growth-Trend Timing?

Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19, Growth-Trend Timing returned 11.1% CAGR with a -33.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.93. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How often is Growth-Trend Timing rebalanced?

Growth-Trend Timing is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.

Is Growth-Trend Timing a tactical asset allocation strategy?

Yes. Growth-Trend Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Growth-Trend Timing

Name: Growth-Trend Timing, Backtest Time Series
Creator: BestFolio
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Growth-Trend Timing is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-19. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2016-01-18 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence: Monthly
Backtest data through: 2026-08-19
History boundary: The recorded 2016-01-18 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach: 1. Growth signal: HYG/IEF price ratio > its 12-month SMA? 2. Trend signal: SPY price > 200-day SMA? 3. Both bullish → 100% SPY 4. One bullish, one bearish → 50% SPY + 50% TLT 5. Both bearish → 100% TLT
BestFolio supplies: the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action: Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions: net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness: The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-19. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action: First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Growth-Trend Timing at a glance

Growth-Trend Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Philosophical Economics across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19 (40.3 years): 11.1% CAGR, 0.93 Sharpe, -33.1% max drawdown, 13.6% volatility.

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Author: Philosophical Economics
Rebalancing: Monthly
Risk: Moderate
Period: 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19
CAGR: 11.1%
Sharpe: 0.93
Max Drawdown: -33.1%
Volatility: 13.6%

Growth-Trend Timing — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Growth-Trend Timing is a dual-signal regime strategy from the Philosophical Economics blog. It combines a credit spread signal (HYG/IEF ratio vs 12-month SMA) with a price trend filter (SPY vs 200-day SMA) to determine equity vs bond exposure.

The two signals combine into three regimes: both bullish → 100% SPY; one bullish → 50/50 SPY/TLT; both bearish → 100% TLT. This graduated approach avoids all-or-nothing whipsaws by using a middle ground when the two indicators disagree.

Growth-Trend Timing: frequently asked questions

What is Growth-Trend Timing?: Dual-signal regime strategy using HYG/IEF ratio as a growth proxy and SPY 200-day SMA as a trend filter. Both bullish holds 100% equities; one bullish gives 50/50; neither holds 100% bonds. Monthly rebalancing.
Who created the Growth-Trend Timing strategy?: Growth-Trend Timing was developed by Philosophical Economics. It is based on Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing..
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Growth-Trend Timing?: Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19, Growth-Trend Timing returned 11.1% CAGR with a -33.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.93. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Growth-Trend Timing rebalanced?: Growth-Trend Timing is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Growth-Trend Timing a tactical asset allocation strategy?: Yes. Growth-Trend Timing is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-08-19)

Metric	Growth-Trend Timing
CAGR	11.1%
Max Drawdown	-33.1%
Sharpe	0.93
Sortino	1.23
Volatility	13.6%
Calmar	0.33
Total Return	6785.9%
Backtest Period	40.3 years

Strategy Details

Type: Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing: monthly
Risk Level: moderate
Variants: 1
Author: Philosophical Economics
Source: Philosophical Economics blog. Growth-Trend Timing.

Asset Classes

US Equity
Long-Term Treasuries

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