HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)
Check canary trigger: Is TIP 13612 equal-weighted momentum positive? Backtest max drawdown: -19.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Check canary trigger: Is TIP 13612 equal-weighted momentum positive; If YES → Select top 4 from offensive universe by 13612 equal-weighted score, equal weight 25% each; If NO → Allocate to best of defensive candidates (IEF or BIL) by…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2023-02-03; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (7)
- VEA: EFA before Jul 26, 2007
- VWO: EEM before Mar 10, 2005
- VNQ: VGSIX before Sep 29, 2004
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- IEF: VFITX before Jul 26, 2002
- VNQ: FRESX before Sep 29, 2004
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Check canary trigger: Is TIP 13612 equal-weighted momentum positive? Backtest max drawdown: -19.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 21eedbd5, published 2026-10-01
Is HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) still working in 2026?
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) returned 18.82% over the trailing 12 months and 47.95% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 16.30%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -19.53%. The full sample contains 13438 daily NAV observations from 1974-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -3.15% below its high-water mark of 2026-06-02, 4 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.8 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 18.82% | Not annualized | -7.44% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 47.95% | Not annualized | -16.48% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 281607.26% | 16.30% | -19.53% | 13438 | 1974-02-28 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-06-02, 4 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -3.15% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.8 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) at a glance
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Wouter Keller across US Equity, International Equity, Emerging Markets, REITs, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1974-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (52.6 years): 16.3% CAGR, 1.49 Sharpe, -19.5% max drawdown, 9.9% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Wouter Keller
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1974-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 16.3%
- Sharpe
- 1.49
- Max Drawdown
- -19.5%
- Volatility
- 9.9%
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) is a momentum-based tactical strategy developed by Wouter Keller, published in 2022. It uses a 'canary' universe of protective assets (TIP, BIL, IEF) to gauge market risk. When the canary trigger (TIP) shows negative momentum, the portfolio shifts to defensive bonds. Otherwise, the top 4 assets from a 9-asset offensive universe are selected based on 13612 equal-weighted momentum scoring.
Note: HAA differs from VAA/DAA/BAA by using equal-weighted 13612 (1m + 3m + 6m + 12m returns, all equal weights), NOT the weighted 13612W (which uses weights 12,4,2,1) those strategies use. This gives more equal influence to longer-horizon momentum signals.
HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation): frequently asked questions
- What is Hybrid Asset Allocation?
- Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA) is Wouter Keller's tactical strategy: a single TIP canary gates risk-on or risk-off, and when risk-on it holds the top 4 assets by 13612 momentum (the 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns, equally weighted) from a broad multi-asset universe, rotating to the best of bonds or cash when the canary turns negative. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) strategy?
- HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) was developed by Wouter Keller. It is based on Keller, W.J. (2022). Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation)?
- Backtested from 1974-02-28 to 2026-10-01, HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) returned 16.3% CAGR with a -19.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.49. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) rebalanced?
- HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1974-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 16.3% |
| Max Drawdown | -19.5% |
| Sharpe | 1.49 |
| Sortino | 3.09 |
| Volatility | 9.9% |
| Calmar | 0.83 |
| Total Return | 281443.7% |
| Backtest Period | 52.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 18
- Author
- Wouter Keller
- Source
- Keller, W.J. (2022). Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- Emerging Markets
- REITs
- Commodities
- Bonds
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
Track HAA (Hybrid Asset Allocation) in Your Portfolio
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Related strategies
- BAA (Bold Asset Allocation) by Wouter J. KellerSharpe 1.28
- DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation) by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem KeuningSharpe 1.28
- PAA (Protective Asset Allocation) by Wouter J. Keller & Jan Willem KeuningSharpe 1.27
- GPMv (DMS) by Randy Harris (DMS variant of Keller & Keuning's GPM)Sharpe 1.26
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