TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA
Calculate SPY 200-day SMA (no tolerance). If SPY < SMA then DEFENSE: CTA 15%, KMLM 15%, UGL 10%, IEI 20%, USMV 20%, ZROZ 20%. Backtest max drawdown: -33.1%.
Strategy & methodology
Calculate SPY 200-day SMA (no tolerance); If SPY < SMA → DEFENSE: CTA 15%, KMLM 15%, UGL 10%, IEI 20%, USMV 20%, ZROZ 20%; If SPY > SMA → Check QQQ vs SPY 60-day relative performance; If QQQ wins → QWIN: TQQQ 25%, UPRO 10%, CTA 32.5%…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2024; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1986
- 14.2% a year, worst fall -33.1% (Aug 23, 1990, a simulated 3x)
- Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010)
- 14.8% a year, worst fall -25.2% (Dec 24, 2018)
Still partly simulated until Dec 2025: CTA, CTAP, KMLM, MATE and USMV are reconstructed before their own launch.
Stand-in funds and until when (10)
- MATE: SPY + KMLM composite before Dec 17, 2025
- CTAP: SPY + CTA composite before Dec 9, 2025
- CTA: KMLM before Mar 8, 2022
- KMLM: RYMFX x1.2 before Dec 2, 2020
- USMV: SPY x0.75 before Oct 20, 2011
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
- ZROZ: TLT x1.4 before Nov 4, 2009
- UPRO: simulated 3x SPY before Jun 25, 2009
- UGL: simulated 2x GLD before Dec 3, 2008
- IEI: IEF x0.7 before Jan 11, 2007
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Calculate SPY 200-day SMA (no tolerance). If SPY < SMA then DEFENSE: CTA 15%, KMLM 15%, UGL 10%, IEI 20%, USMV 20%, ZROZ 20%. Backtest max drawdown: -33.1%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version c5447300, published 2026-10-01
Is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA still working in 2026?
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA returned 13.32% over the trailing 12 months and 47.32% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 14.27%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -33.06%. The full sample contains 10407 daily NAV observations from 1986-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -0.52% below its high-water mark of 2026-09-24, 8 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.6 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 13.32% | Not annualized | -11.27% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 47.32% | Not annualized | -17.30% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 22358.12% | 14.27% | -33.06% | 10407 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-09-24, 8 days before 2026-10-02, and it is -0.52% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.6 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA at a glance
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by BestFolio across US Equity (Leveraged), Managed Futures, US Equity, Gold, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (40.6 years): 14.2% CAGR, 0.86 Sharpe, -33.1% max drawdown, 17.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- BestFolio
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 14.2%
- Sharpe
- 0.86
- Max Drawdown
- -33.1%
- Volatility
- 17.3%
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA strategy combines a leveraged-equity trend filter with managed futures diversification. It uses the SPY 200-day SMA as the primary trend filter, combined with QQQ vs SPY 60-day relative strength to determine the market regime.
Three regimes: - QWin (above SMA + QQQ winning): TQQQ/UPRO + managed futures - SWin (above SMA + SPY winning): stacked stock + trend ETFs (CTAP + MATE) - Defense (below SMA): managed futures, 2x gold, treasuries, low-volatility US stocks
TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA: frequently asked questions
- What is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA?
- Leveraged trend-following using SPY 200-day SMA with QQQ/SPY relative strength. Three regimes: QQQ outperforms triggers leveraged Nasdaq/managed futures; SPY wins triggers return stacking; below trend triggers diversified defense. Monthly.
- Who created the TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA strategy?
- TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA was developed by BestFolio. It is based on Custom strategy by BestFolio (2024). Combines leveraged equity trend-following with managed futures diversification..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01, TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA returned 14.2% CAGR with a -33.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.86. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA rebalanced?
- TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 14.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -33.1% |
| Sharpe | 0.86 |
| Sortino | 1.49 |
| Volatility | 17.3% |
| Calmar | 0.43 |
| Total Return | 22035.2% |
| Backtest Period | 40.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- BestFolio
- Source
- Custom strategy by BestFolio (2024). Combines leveraged equity trend-following with managed futures diversification.
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Leveraged)
- Managed Futures
- US Equity
- Gold
- Treasuries
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding TQQQ/UPRO Trend SMA alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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