TQQQ Quadrant Stack
Base: 30% TQQQ, 20% ZROZ, 20% AVDV, 20% RSST, 10% GDE. Backtest max drawdown: -37.7%.
Strategy & methodology
Base: 30% TQQQ, 20% ZROZ, 20% AVDV, 20% RSST, 10% GDE; SPY < 200-day SMA at month-end: TQQQ 30% moves to ZROZ / GLD / managed futures, 10% each; TLT < 200-day SMA at month-end: all current ZROZ splits half GLD, half managed futures; Both…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2026-07-25; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-07.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1996
- 18.6% a year, worst fall -37.7% (Jul 23, 2002, a simulated 3x)
- Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010)
- 19.2% a year, worst fall -32.4% (Dec 28, 2022)
Still partly simulated until Sep 2023: AVDV, DBMF, GDE and RSST are reconstructed before their own launch.
Stand-in funds and until when (6)
- RSST: SPY + KMLM composite before Sep 6, 2023
- GDE: SPY + GLD composite before Mar 17, 2022
- AVDV: DISVX before Sep 26, 2019
- DBMF: KMLM before May 8, 2019
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
- ZROZ: TLT x1.4 before Nov 4, 2009
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Base: 30% TQQQ, 20% ZROZ, 20% AVDV, 20% RSST, 10% GDE. Backtest max drawdown: -37.7%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version fb56b565, published 2026-10-05
Is TQQQ Quadrant Stack still working in 2026?
TQQQ Quadrant Stack returned 15.22% over the trailing 12 months and 82.66% over 36 months through 2026-10-07, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 18.57%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -37.72%. The full sample contains 7609 daily NAV observations from 1996-11-29. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-07 it is -0.84% below its high-water mark of 2026-10-06, 1 day ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.6 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 15.22% | Not annualized | -16.58% | 252 | 2025-10-07 to 2026-10-07 |
| Trailing 36 months | 82.66% | Not annualized | -23.33% | 753 | 2023-10-06 to 2026-10-07 |
| Full backtest | 16078.26% | 18.57% | -37.72% | 7609 | 1996-11-29 to 2026-10-07 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-10-06, 1 day before 2026-10-07, and it is -0.84% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.6 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
TQQQ Quadrant Stack at a glance
TQQQ Quadrant Stack is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs) across US Equity (3x), Long Treasuries, International Small-Cap Value, Managed Futures, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1996-11-29 to 2026-10-07 (29.8 years): 18.6% CAGR, 0.91 Sharpe, -37.7% max drawdown, 22.4% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs)
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1996-11-29 to 2026-10-07
- CAGR
- 18.6%
- Sharpe
- 0.91
- Max Drawdown
- -37.7%
- Volatility
- 22.4%
TQQQ Quadrant Stack — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
TQQQ Quadrant Stack is a community strategy posted by u/Separate-Ad-9633 on r/LETFs (July 2026): a fully-invested leveraged stack steered by two independent 200-day trend gates. The base book holds 30% TQQQ for aggressive equity beta, 20% ZROZ long-duration Treasuries, 20% AVDV international small-cap value, 20% RSST (return-stacked US equity plus managed-futures trend) and 10% GDE (return-stacked US equity plus gold).
When SPY closes a month under its 200-day moving average, the TQQQ sleeve is parked in equal parts into ZROZ, gold and managed futures. When TLT closes under its own 200-day average, the entire ZROZ sleeve splits half into gold, half into managed futures. The two gates carve the portfolio into four macro quadrants, from 139% notional equity in a confirmed boom down to 49% with heavy gold and trend exposure when both trends are broken. Half of the book never trades, which keeps turnover near three switches a year.
TQQQ Quadrant Stack: frequently asked questions
- What is TQQQ Quadrant Stack?
- Community strategy by u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs). A fully-invested leveraged stack, 30% TQQQ with ZROZ, AVDV, RSST and GDE diversifiers, steered by two independent 200-day trend gates: when SPY breaks trend the TQQQ sleeve is redistributed to ZROZ, gold and managed futures, and when TLT breaks trend the whole ZROZ sleeve splits into gold and managed futures. Monthly rebalance across the four resulting quadrants.
- Who created the TQQQ Quadrant Stack strategy?
- TQQQ Quadrant Stack was developed by u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs). It is based on Community strategy by u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs), July 2026.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ Quadrant Stack?
- Backtested from 1996-11-29 to 2026-10-07, TQQQ Quadrant Stack returned 18.6% CAGR with a -37.7% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.91. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is TQQQ Quadrant Stack rebalanced?
- TQQQ Quadrant Stack is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is TQQQ Quadrant Stack a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. TQQQ Quadrant Stack is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1996-11-29 to 2026-10-07)
| Metric | TQQQ Quadrant Stack |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 18.6% |
| Max Drawdown | -37.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.91 |
| Sortino | 1.58 |
| Volatility | 22.4% |
| Calmar | 0.49 |
| Total Return | 15932.5% |
| Backtest Period | 29.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs)
- Source
- Community strategy by u/Separate-Ad-9633 (r/LETFs), July 2026
Asset Classes
- US Equity (3x)
- Long Treasuries
- International Small-Cap Value
- Managed Futures
- Gold
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding TQQQ Quadrant Stack alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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- TQQQ Quadrant Stack: what 2 trend gates fix, and what they missA community-built leveraged portfolio with 2 trend gates: what they fix, what they cost, and the years that hurt.