TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)
Each day, compute SPY's 200-day SMA and the +4% / -3% bands. If SPY close > SMA200 × 1.04 then 100% TQQQ (aggressive). Backtest max drawdown: -95.8%.
Extreme risk: not investable
This strategy's worst historical drawdown is about -96%, a near-total loss from peak. It is published for research and illustration only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, and you should not allocate capital you are not prepared to lose almost entirely.
That fall came on Oct 9, 2002, a simulated 3x. Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010), the worst fall was -60%. This warning uses the full history.
This warning is about holding it on its own. Inside some diversified BestFolio portfolios a strategy like this appears only as a small, capped sleeve, where its risk is bounded and offset by holdings that behave differently.
For lower-risk, diversified strategies, browse the full catalog.
Strategy & methodology
Each day, compute SPY's 200-day SMA and the +4% / -3% bands; If SPY close > SMA200 × 1.04 → 100% TQQQ (aggressive); If SPY close < SMA200 × 0.97 → 100% QQQ (defensive); Between the bands → hold the current position (buffer against…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2025; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1985
- 28.2% a year, worst fall -95.8% (Oct 9, 2002, a simulated 3x)
- Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010)
- 39.8% a year, worst fall -60.0% (Mar 10, 2023)
Stand-in funds and until when (1)
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Each day, compute SPY's 200-day SMA and the +4% / -3% bands. If SPY close > SMA200 × 1.04 then 100% TQQQ (aggressive). Backtest max drawdown: -95.8%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 08a3d7d2, published 2026-10-01
Is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) still working in 2026?
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) returned 24.03% over the trailing 12 months and 224.29% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 28.31%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -95.76%. The full sample contains 10325 daily NAV observations from 1985-10-09. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -6.72% below its high-water mark of 2026-06-02, 4 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 15 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 24.03% | Not annualized | -36.18% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 224.29% | Not annualized | -44.87% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 2735219.51% | 28.31% | -95.76% | 10325 | 1985-10-09 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-06-02, 4 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -6.72% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 15 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) at a glance
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ) across US Equity (Leveraged), US Equity, rebalanced daily. Backtested 1985-10-09 to 2026-10-01 (41.0 years): 28.2% CAGR, 0.72 Sharpe, -95.8% max drawdown, 57.1% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 1985-10-09 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 28.2%
- Sharpe
- 0.72
- Max Drawdown
- -95.8%
- Volatility
- 57.1%
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x and 1x using an asymmetric trend band on the S&P 500. It tracks SPY's daily close against its 200-day SMA: a close more than 4% above the average flips the position to 100% TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100), and a close more than 3% below flips it to 100% QQQ (1x). Between the two bands the position is held, so the asymmetric buffer is the whipsaw filter: harder to re-leverage (+4%), quicker to step down (-3%).
The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash or bonds, so the strategy is always invested in the Nasdaq-100. An optional blow-off-top guard, disabled in the standard variant, can deleverage from TQQQ down to QQQ (and ultimately to cash) when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA, a rare 'dot-com' tail guard suggested by the author.
TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%): frequently asked questions
- What is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?
- Asymmetric SPY 200-day SMA band that switches Nasdaq-100 exposure between 3x (TQQQ) and 1x (QQQ). When SPY closes more than 4% above its 200-day SMA, hold 100% TQQQ; when it closes more than 3% below, drop to 100% QQQ. Positions hold between the bands, so the asymmetric buffer filters whipsaws: quick to de-risk (-3%), slower to re-leverage (+4%). The defensive leg stays in the underlying (QQQ) rather than cash. An optional blow-off-top guard (off in the standard variant) can deleverage when QQQ runs far above its own 200-day SMA. Single-asset 3x leverage on the aggressive leg makes this a high-drawdown satellite, not a core.
- Who created the TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) strategy?
- TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) was developed by XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ). It is based on Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%)?
- Backtested from 1985-10-09 to 2026-10-01, TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) returned 28.2% CAGR with a -95.8% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.72. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) rebalanced?
- TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1985-10-09 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 28.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -95.8% |
| Sharpe | 0.72 |
| Sortino | 1.25 |
| Volatility | 57.1% |
| Calmar | 0.29 |
| Total Return | 2634599.2% |
| Backtest Period | 41.0 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ)
- Source
- Community strategy by u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD (r/TQQQ), 2025: 'SPY 200SMA (+4%/-3%) TQQQ/QQQ Long Term Investment Strategy.'
Asset Classes
- US Equity (Leveraged)
- US Equity
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding TQQQ/QQQ 200MA Band (+4%/-3%) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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