A-RVol Shifter
3-state mode: TQQQ then QLD if RVol > 18% or VR > 1.25 or SPY < SMA-3%. Backtest max drawdown: -38.5%.
Strategy & methodology
3-state mode: TQQQ → QLD if RVol > 18% or VR > 1.25 or SPY < SMA-3%; QLD → Defensive if RVol > 36% or VR > 1.40 or credit < -4%; Defensive → QLD if RVol < 25% and VR < 1.10 and SPY > SMA-1.5%; Defensive rotation: best of TLT/GLD/XLU/XLE…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Daily
- Original publication:
- 2024; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 2003
- 24.8% a year, worst fall -38.5% (Apr 20, 2005, a simulated 3x)
- Since TQQQ launched (Feb 11, 2010)
- 29.5% a year, worst fall -35.4% (Nov 4, 2016)
Stand-in funds and until when (2)
- TQQQ: simulated 3x QQQ before Feb 11, 2010
- QLD: simulated 2x QQQ before Jun 21, 2006
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
3-state mode: TQQQ then QLD if RVol > 18% or VR > 1.25 or SPY < SMA-3%. Backtest max drawdown: -38.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The daily signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 747876cb, published 2026-10-01
Is A-RVol Shifter still working in 2026?
A-RVol Shifter returned -4.24% over the trailing 12 months and 140.45% over 36 months through 2026-10-02, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 25.02%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -38.52%. The full sample contains 5976 daily NAV observations from 2003-01-02. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-02 it is -10.52% below its high-water mark of 2025-10-29, 11 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.8 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | -4.24% | Not annualized | -33.89% | 252 | 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Trailing 36 months | 140.45% | Not annualized | -33.89% | 754 | 2023-10-02 to 2026-10-02 |
| Full backtest | 19975.75% | 25.02% | -38.52% | 5976 | 2003-01-02 to 2026-10-02 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2025-10-29, 11 months before 2026-10-02, and it is -10.52% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.8 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
A-RVol Shifter at a glance
A-RVol Shifter is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by u/Wongkok (Reddit) across US Equity (3x Leveraged), US Equity (2x Leveraged), Long Treasuries, Gold, rebalanced daily. Backtested 2003-01-02 to 2026-10-01 (23.7 years): 24.8% CAGR, 0.86 Sharpe, -38.5% max drawdown, 33.6% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- u/Wongkok (Reddit)
- Rebalancing
- Daily
- Risk
- Aggressive
- Period
- 2003-01-02 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 24.8%
- Sharpe
- 0.86
- Max Drawdown
- -38.5%
- Volatility
- 33.6%
A-RVol Shifter — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
A-RVol Shifter V3 is an adaptive volatility-based leveraged Nasdaq strategy. It uses multiple signals (QQQ realized vol, vol ratio, SPY 200-SMA with asymmetric buffers, credit spread stress, Donchian channel) to shift between TQQQ (3x), QLD (2x), and a defensive rotation (best of TLT/GLD/XLU/XLE by momentum, or BIL).
A-RVol Shifter: frequently asked questions
- What is A-RVol Shifter?
- Adaptive volatility-based leveraged Nasdaq strategy (V3) by u/Wongkok. Uses QQQ realized volatility, volatility ratio, SPY 200-day SMA, credit spreads (HYG/LQD), and Donchian channel exits to shift between TQQQ (3x), QLD (2x), and defensive rotation (TLT/GLD/XLU/XLE). Credit to u/Wongkok and u/XXXMrHOLLYWOOD.
- Who created the A-RVol Shifter strategy?
- A-RVol Shifter was developed by u/Wongkok (Reddit).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of A-RVol Shifter?
- Backtested from 2003-01-02 to 2026-10-01, A-RVol Shifter returned 24.8% CAGR with a -38.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.86. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is A-RVol Shifter rebalanced?
- A-RVol Shifter is rebalanced daily. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is A-RVol Shifter a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. A-RVol Shifter is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (2003-01-02 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | A-RVol Shifter |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 24.8% |
| Max Drawdown | -38.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.86 |
| Sortino | 1.47 |
| Volatility | 33.6% |
| Calmar | 0.64 |
| Total Return | 19237.3% |
| Backtest Period | 23.7 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- daily
- Risk Level
- aggressive
- Variants
- 4
- Author
- u/Wongkok (Reddit)
Asset Classes
- US Equity (3x Leveraged)
- US Equity (2x Leveraged)
- Long Treasuries
- Gold
- Utilities
- Energy
- Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding A-RVol Shifter alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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