Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux)
Always hold 20% VT, 20% TLT and 20% GLD. Compute 12-month ROC for SPY and VEU. Backtest max drawdown: -20.1%.
Strategy & methodology
Always hold 20% VT, 20% TLT and 20% GLD; Compute 12-month ROC for SPY and VEU; If ROC(SPY) > 0 and ROC(SPY) >= ROC(VEU): 40% SPY; If ROC(SPY) > 0 and ROC(SPY) < ROC(VEU): 40% VEU; If ROC(SPY) <= 0: 40% BIL (defensive cash); Rebalance…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2024; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (5)
- GLDM: GLD before Jun 26, 2018
- VT: SPY + VEA composite before Jun 26, 2008
- VEU: EFA before Mar 8, 2007
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Always hold 20% VT, 20% TLT and 20% GLD. Compute 12-month ROC for SPY and VEU. Backtest max drawdown: -20.1%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version b6cc64e6, published 2026-10-01
Is Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) still working in 2026?
Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) returned 10.55% over the trailing 12 months and 68.06% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 9.87%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -20.06%. The full sample contains 10339 daily NAV observations from 1986-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -5.27% below its high-water mark of 2026-08-25, 37 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.2 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 10.55% | Not annualized | -10.01% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 68.06% | Not annualized | -10.55% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 4462.19% | 9.87% | -20.06% | 10339 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-08-25, 37 days before 2026-10-01, and it is -5.27% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.2 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) at a glance
Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Nicolas Lequeux across Global Equity, US Equity, International Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (40.6 years): 9.9% CAGR, 1.10 Sharpe, -20.1% max drawdown, 9.2% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Nicolas Lequeux
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 9.9%
- Sharpe
- 1.10
- Max Drawdown
- -20.1%
- Volatility
- 9.2%
Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Nicolas Lequeux's Permanent Portfolio brings together three well-known ideas: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio for its diversification across stocks, bonds, gold and cash, the classic 60/40 as the ceiling on equity exposure, and Gary Antonacci's Global Equity Momentum as the rule for moving between the two. Sixty percent of the portfolio never changes: 20% global equities (VT), 20% long-term Treasuries (TLT) and 20% gold. The remaining 40% is a dynamic sleeve invested in US equities (SPY), international equities (VEU) or cash (BIL) according to 12-month rate of change: the sleeve follows whichever market leads while US momentum is positive, and parks in cash when it turns negative. Total equity exposure therefore ranges from 20% to 60%, and a full risk-off only ever moves 40% of the portfolio. The 2026 version is the one the author runs today; the original 2024 dashboard version (25% TLT + 25% gold + a 50% sleeve, no separate equity core) is kept as a second variant.
Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux): frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux)?
- Nicolas Lequeux's Permanent Portfolio: 20% global equities (VT), 20% long-term Treasuries (TLT) and 20% gold held permanently, plus a 40% sleeve rotated monthly between US equities (SPY), international equities (VEU) and cash (BIL) on 12-month rate of change, in the spirit of Antonacci's Global Equity Momentum. Total equity exposure ranges from 20% to 60%.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) was developed by Nicolas Lequeux. It is based on Lequeux, N. (2026). My Permanent Portfolio (LinkedIn) and the Permanent Portfolio Dashboard (nlxfin.shinyapps.io).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux)?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01, Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) returned 9.9% CAGR with a -20.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.10. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 9.9% |
| Max Drawdown | -20.1% |
| Sharpe | 1.10 |
| Sortino | 1.91 |
| Volatility | 9.2% |
| Calmar | 0.49 |
| Total Return | 4462.2% |
| Backtest Period | 40.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Nicolas Lequeux
- Source
- Lequeux, N. (2026). My Permanent Portfolio (LinkedIn) and the Permanent Portfolio Dashboard (nlxfin.shinyapps.io)
Asset Classes
- Global Equity
- US Equity
- International Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- Cash (T-Bills)
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Permanent Portfolio (Lequeux) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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