Permanent Portfolio (Gave)
Always hold 1/3 SPY and 1/3 BIL. Compute end-of-month ratio GLD / IEF and its 84-month moving average. Backtest max drawdown: -23.0%.
Strategy & methodology
Always hold 1/3 SPY and 1/3 BIL; Compute end-of-month ratio GLD / IEF and its 84-month moving average; If ratio > 84-month MA (gold regime): hold 1/3 GLD, 0 IEF; If ratio < 84-month MA (bond regime): hold 1/3 IEF, 0 GLD; Rebalance monthly.
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2024-10-22; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (3)
- GLDM: GLD before Jun 26, 2018
- IEF: VFITX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Always hold 1/3 SPY and 1/3 BIL. Compute end-of-month ratio GLD / IEF and its 84-month moving average. Backtest max drawdown: -23.0%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 438f1b7d, published 2026-10-01
Is Permanent Portfolio (Gave) still working in 2026?
Permanent Portfolio (Gave) returned 9.75% over the trailing 12 months and 71.00% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 7.86%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -23.03%. The full sample contains 8777 daily NAV observations from 1992-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -4.02% below its high-water mark of 2026-01-29, 8 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.3 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 9.75% | Not annualized | -8.84% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 71.00% | Not annualized | -8.84% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 1269.07% | 7.86% | -23.03% | 8777 | 1992-02-28 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-01-29, 8 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -4.02% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.3 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Permanent Portfolio (Gave) at a glance
Permanent Portfolio (Gave) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Charles Gave across US Equity, Gold, Intermediate-Term Treasuries, Cash (T-Bills), rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1992-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (34.6 years): 7.9% CAGR, 1.16 Sharpe, -23.0% max drawdown, 7.8% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Charles Gave
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Period
- 1992-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 7.9%
- Sharpe
- 1.16
- Max Drawdown
- -23.0%
- Volatility
- 7.8%
Permanent Portfolio (Gave) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Charles Gave's dynamic variant of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, introduced in his 2024 book 'Cessez de vous faire avoir'. The equity sleeve is fixed at 1/3 SPY. The remaining 2/3 are split between an inflation hedge (GLD) and a deflation hedge (IEF) based on a 7-year moving-average regime signal computed on the GLD/IEF ratio. When gold is outperforming bonds (ratio above its 7Y MA) the portfolio leans into GLD; otherwise it leans into IEF. A cash buffer (BIL) fills the final third of the portfolio.
Permanent Portfolio (Gave): frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio (Gave)?
- Charles Gave's dynamic permanent portfolio: 1/3 SPY fixed, 1/3 to GLD or IEF based on a 7-year MA of the GLD/IEF ratio, and 1/3 BIL.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio (Gave) strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio (Gave) was developed by Charles Gave. It is based on Gave, C. (2024). Cessez de vous faire avoir: Occupez-vous votre epargne.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio (Gave)?
- Backtested from 1992-02-28 to 2026-10-01, Permanent Portfolio (Gave) returned 7.9% CAGR with a -23.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.16. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio (Gave) rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio (Gave) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio (Gave) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Permanent Portfolio (Gave) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1992-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio (Gave) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.9% |
| Max Drawdown | -23.0% |
| Sharpe | 1.16 |
| Sortino | 1.98 |
| Volatility | 7.8% |
| Calmar | 0.34 |
| Total Return | 1269.1% |
| Backtest Period | 34.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Charles Gave
- Source
- Gave, C. (2024). Cessez de vous faire avoir: Occupez-vous votre epargne
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Gold
- Intermediate-Term Treasuries
- Cash (T-Bills)
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Permanent Portfolio (Gave) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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