It's out! Tactical Asset Allocation for Beginners is the book I'd have loved to have in 2013, when I got into tactical allocation and had to piece it all together from papers and forum threads.
I wrote it for you if you own an index fund, you've been told never to time the market, and you'd still like a written plan for the next 2022. No finance degree needed: I explain every term where it first shows up.
The chart on the cover is my whole pitch. 3 crashes you remember, the S&P 500 against the blend I build up to in the book (2 of the 5 strategies, half each):
| Crash | S&P 500 (SPY, dividends included), peak to trough | The book's blend, return over the same dates | The blend's own worst fall in the crash |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash, 2020 | -33.7% | -7.6% | -12.4% |
| 2022 bear market | -24.5% | -4.3% | -7.0% |
| April 2025 tariff shock | -18.8% | -11.2% | -11.2% |
The S&P 500 column is its fall from peak to trough. The blend column is what the blend did over those same dates; inside each crash its own worst fall was deeper, shown in the last column. Figures from the current HAA and Triplet cards. Backtested on real ETFs, trading costs included. And I show every strategy's bad years too, they're all in Chapter 4.
What you get
- 5 strategies, from a portfolio you rebalance once a year up to the 2 I end up recommending: Golden Butterfly, 200-Day Trend, GEM, HAA and the Momentum-Correlation Triplet. Each with its rule, a real month worked through, and its worst years.
- A spreadsheet for each one. Once a month you paste in a few prices and it tells you what to hold (Excel, Google Sheets or LibreOffice).
- The funds to buy where you live, with ISINs, the right account (IRA, 401(k), ISA, PEA, assurance-vie and more) and what each strategy really costs you in tax.
- A monthly routine of 20 to 40 minutes, a 2-page cheat sheet, and what to do when a strategy has a bad run.
- The code behind every test, so you can check my numbers.
Price
$29 (or €29) until 23 October, 23:59 Budapest time. $39 after that.
Never been a BestFolio subscriber? Buy the book, and if you take annual Pro within 90 days, what you paid for the book comes off your first year.
Already on Pro? It's included. Annual members have it now, monthly members get it once their 3rd payment goes through. Download it from the book page.
Not sure yet? The introduction, the results chapter and the 200-Day Trend chapter with its spreadsheet are free.
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Laurent