Is tactical asset allocation still working in 2026?
Is tactical asset allocation still working in 2026?
Trailing 12-month returns range from -4.48% to 25.31%; 10 of 11 available windows are positive. The table covers 11 selected strategies and 11 available model histories. It compares cumulative recent returns with full-backtest annualized returns and daily-close losses. These model results cannot prove future effectiveness or describe investor account returns. The catalog's free entries include fixed allocations as reference points. Windows end on each row's data date, so check dates before comparing. Recent backtests are not automatically live or out-of-sample records.
| Strategy | Access | 12m return | 36m return | Backtest CAGR | Backtest max drawdown | NAV observations | Backtest dates / 12m start / 36m start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEM (Global Equities Momentum) | Free | 25.31% | 75.12% | 12.30% | -33.70% | 10236 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Permanent Portfolio | Free | 10.21% | 49.02% | 7.18% | -17.35% | 16838 | 1961-02-28 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Classic 60/40 | Free | 11.09% | 49.53% | 8.04% | -65.75% | 26502 | 1922-12-29 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Golden Butterfly | Free | 13.42% | 52.97% | 8.34% | -19.90% | 9845 | 1987-12-31 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Paired Switching (Glenn) | Free | 6.94% | 28.61% | 9.11% | -62.88% | 27144 | 1920-06-30 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| RP Gold+SCV (Schwoerer) | Free | 5.16% | 31.24% | 6.50% | -30.70% | 10323 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| 200-Day SMA Trend | Pro | 7.34% | 40.93% | 10.61% | -25.03% | 8987 | 1990-12-31 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| A-RVol Shifter | Pro | -4.48% | 100.13% | 24.42% | -38.52% | 5959 | 2003-01-02 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Adaptive Asset Allocation | Pro | 23.06% | 53.85% | 10.42% | -21.94% | 10455 | 1985-08-30 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| ADM (Accelerating Dual Momentum) | Pro | 9.60% | 47.94% | 15.45% | -25.77% | 10297 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
| Alpha-One Momentum | Pro | 4.28% | 34.64% | 10.98% | -21.51% | 8319 | 1993-08-20 to 2026-09-09 / 2025-09-09 / 2023-09-08 |
Last verified
Why do tactical strategies lag in some years?
A defensive allocation can miss a rally, and rapid reversals can cause repeated losses when signals change direction. Different assets and rules work differently across market conditions. A year of lagging returns does not by itself establish whether a strategy has stopped working.
How does BestFolio report live versus backtest results?
These comparisons use the latest published model backtest NAV. Recent dates alone do not make the results live investor returns. Walk-forward portfolio evaluations use explicitly held-out windows. The methodology explains signal-close execution assumptions, data reconstruction and the limitations of each record.
Where can I see each strategy's signal history?
Follow the strategy name in the table and open its Signal History card. The selected variant's dated model decisions are shown subject to its access tier. Free strategies expose their signals; Pro strategies require the corresponding access.