Trinity As Published (Faber rules)
Half: buy-and-hold global asset allocation of 10 asset classes (weights above), reset to target each December. Backtest max drawdown: -21.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Half: buy-and-hold global asset allocation of 10 asset classes (weights above), reset to target each December; Half: rank the same 10 assets by the average of their 1, 3, 6 and 12-month returns and keep the top 5; Each of the 5 gets a…
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2015-11-04; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-23.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (11)
- BWX: RPIBX before Oct 11, 2007
- VNQ: VGSIX before Sep 29, 2004
- TIP: VIPSX before Dec 5, 2003
- EEM: VEIEX before Apr 14, 2003
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- LQD: PIGIX before Jul 26, 2002
- EFA: VGTSX before Aug 17, 2001
- TIP: PRTNX before Dec 5, 2003
- LQD: VWESX before Jul 26, 2002
- VNQ: FRESX before Sep 29, 2004
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Half: buy-and-hold global asset allocation of 10 asset classes (weights above), reset to target each December. Backtest max drawdown: -21.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 931ab917, published 2026-10-17
Is Trinity As Published (Faber rules) still working in 2026?
Trinity As Published (Faber rules) returned 10.78% over the trailing 12 months and 51.35% over 36 months through 2026-10-23, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 8.86%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -21.51%. The full sample contains 9921 daily NAV observations from 1987-10-30. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-23 it is -2.00% below its high-water mark of 2026-09-08, 1 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.6 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 10.78% | Not annualized | -5.90% | 252 | 2025-10-23 to 2026-10-23 |
| Trailing 36 months | 51.35% | Not annualized | -7.73% | 754 | 2023-10-23 to 2026-10-23 |
| Full backtest | 2640.13% | 8.86% | -21.51% | 9921 | 1987-10-30 to 2026-10-23 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-09-08, 1 months before 2026-10-23, and it is -2.00% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.6 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Trinity As Published (Faber rules) at a glance
Trinity As Published (Faber rules) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber across US Equity, International Equity, Emerging Markets, Corporate Bonds, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1987-10-30 to 2026-10-23 (39.0 years): 8.9% CAGR, 0.77 Sharpe, -21.5% max drawdown, 7.6% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1987-10-30 to 2026-10-23
- CAGR
- 8.9%
- Sharpe
- 0.77
- Max Drawdown
- -21.5%
- Volatility
- 7.6%
Trinity As Published (Faber rules) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Trinity As Published follows the structure of Meb Faber's Trinity Portfolio (Cambria white paper, 2016). Half of the money sits in a buy-and-hold global asset allocation of ten asset classes: US stocks 18%, foreign developed stocks 13.5%, emerging stocks 4.5%, corporate bonds 19.8%, 30-year Treasuries 13.5%, foreign government bonds 14.4%, TIPS 1.8%, commodities 5%, gold 5% and REITs 4.5% (SPY, EFA, EEM, LQD, TLT, BWX, TIP, DBC, GLD, VNQ), rebalanced once a year. The other half runs Faber's Global Trend: each month it ranks the same ten assets by momentum, keeps the top half, and holds each of those only while it is above its 10-month average, otherwise T-bills. A second version follows his first 2015 sketch: two thirds buy-and-hold, one third trend. BestFolio's older Three-Asset Trend (VTI/VEU/AGG) was listed as Trinity until October 2026 but is all trend on three assets; this is the version that follows Faber.
On BestFolio's engine, net of 10 bps a trade, from the end of October 1987 to October 2026 it returned 8.9% a year with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 and a -21.5% worst fall (May 2008 to March 2009); the 2015 sketch returned 8.4% a year, Sharpe 0.71, worst fall -23.9%. On the same dates Three-Asset Trend returned 7.1% a year, Sharpe 0.62, worst fall -12.6%, and the S&P 500 11.6% a year, Sharpe 0.62, worst fall -55.2%.
Trinity As Published (Faber rules): frequently asked questions
- What is Trinity As Published (Faber rules)?
- Meb Faber's Trinity Portfolio as published in his 2016 white paper: half in a buy-and-hold global asset allocation (US, foreign and emerging stocks, corporate, long Treasury, foreign government and inflation-linked bonds, commodities, gold, REITs), rebalanced yearly, and half in Global Trend, the top half of the same ten assets by momentum, each held only above its 10-month average, else T-bills. Monthly.
- Who created the Trinity As Published (Faber rules) strategy?
- Trinity As Published (Faber rules) was developed by Meb Faber. It is based on Meb Faber's white paper The Trinity Portfolio (Cambria, 2016) and his 2015 blog post of the same name, without the value and momentum tilts.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Trinity As Published (Faber rules)?
- Backtested from 1987-10-30 to 2026-10-23, Trinity As Published (Faber rules) returned 8.9% CAGR with a -21.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Trinity As Published (Faber rules) rebalanced?
- Trinity As Published (Faber rules) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Trinity As Published (Faber rules) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Trinity As Published (Faber rules) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1987-10-30 to 2026-10-23)
| Metric | Trinity As Published (Faber rules) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.9% |
| Max Drawdown | -21.5% |
| Sharpe | 0.77 |
| Sortino | 1.21 |
| Volatility | 7.6% |
| Calmar | 0.41 |
| Total Return | 2643.6% |
| Backtest Period | 39.0 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Source
- Meb Faber's white paper The Trinity Portfolio (Cambria, 2016) and his 2015 blog post of the same name, without the value and momentum tilts
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- Emerging Markets
- Corporate Bonds
- Long Treasuries
- International Bonds
- TIPS
- Commodities
- Gold
- US REITs
- Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Trinity As Published (Faber rules) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
Track Trinity As Published (Faber rules) in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.