Global Navigator+ (DMS)
Compute DMS score (0.25×1m + 0.25×3m + 0.50×6m) for IWB, VXUS, and BIL. Backtest max drawdown: -27.5%.
Strategy & methodology
Compute DMS score (0.25×1m + 0.25×3m + 0.50×6m) for IWB, VXUS, and BIL; If IWB score >= BIL → RISK-ON: best of IWB/VXUS (or SSO if Smart Leverage active); If IWB score < BIL → RISK-OFF: TLT if fast score positive, else VGSH (sticky).
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2021; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
- Full history, since 1986
- 15.2% a year, worst fall -27.5% (Nov 16, 1988, a simulated 2x)
- Since SSO launched (Jun 21, 2006)
- 13.6% a year, worst fall -24.7% (Sep 16, 2010)
Still partly simulated until Jan 2011: VXUS is reconstructed before its own launch.
Stand-in funds and until when (6)
- VXUS: VGTSX before Jan 28, 2011
- SSO: simulated 2x SPY before Jun 21, 2006
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SHY: VFISX before Jul 26, 2002
- IWB: SPY before May 19, 2000
- VXUS: PRITX before Jan 28, 2011
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Compute DMS score (0.25×1m + 0.25×3m + 0.50×6m) for IWB, VXUS, and BIL. Backtest max drawdown: -27.5%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 49cbf4f9, published 2026-10-01
Is Global Navigator+ (DMS) still working in 2026?
Global Navigator+ (DMS) returned 9.06% over the trailing 12 months and 42.85% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 15.23%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -27.48%. The full sample contains 10252 daily NAV observations from 1986-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -4.19% below its high-water mark of 2026-02-25, 7 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.9 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 9.06% | Not annualized | -11.27% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 42.85% | Not annualized | -11.27% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 31488.11% | 15.23% | -27.48% | 10252 | 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-02-25, 7 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -4.19% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.9 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Global Navigator+ (DMS) at a glance
Global Navigator+ (DMS) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Randy Harris across US Equity, International Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (40.6 years): 15.2% CAGR, 1.07 Sharpe, -27.5% max drawdown, 15.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Randy Harris
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 15.2%
- Sharpe
- 1.07
- Max Drawdown
- -27.5%
- Volatility
- 15.3%
Global Navigator+ (DMS) — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Global Navigator+ is a single-asset monthly rotation strategy from Randy Harris's DMS. It uses a weighted momentum score (0.25×1m + 0.25×3m + 0.50×6m) to decide between US equities (IWB), international equities (VXUS), and treasury bonds.
In risk-on mode, the strategy selects the better of IWB or VXUS. If IWB has experienced a >15% drawdown, Smart Leverage activates (SSO for up to 12 months). In risk-off mode, a Treasury Duration Limiter chooses between TLT and VGSH.
Global Navigator+ (DMS): frequently asked questions
- What is Global Navigator+ (DMS)?
- Extends the LT Gain framework with an international equity check -- VXUS can displace US equities when trending stronger. Smart Leverage activates after 15% drawdowns. Treasury Duration Limiter handles risk-off. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Global Navigator+ (DMS) strategy?
- Global Navigator+ (DMS) was developed by Randy Harris.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Global Navigator+ (DMS)?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01, Global Navigator+ (DMS) returned 15.2% CAGR with a -27.5% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.07. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Global Navigator+ (DMS) rebalanced?
- Global Navigator+ (DMS) is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Global Navigator+ (DMS) a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Global Navigator+ (DMS) is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Global Navigator+ (DMS) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 15.2% |
| Max Drawdown | -27.5% |
| Sharpe | 1.07 |
| Sortino | 1.95 |
| Volatility | 15.3% |
| Calmar | 0.55 |
| Total Return | 31488.1% |
| Backtest Period | 40.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Randy Harris
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Short-Term Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Global Navigator+ (DMS) alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
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