The Golden Ratio Dual Gate backtest begins in April 2008 and compounds at 19.9% through late July 2026. One date pair produces one attractive number.
An investor can start in any month. We replayed every eligible 5-year and 10-year start from the production backtest series, then ran the same windows with monthly contributions. The strategy did well across this history, while the spread between starts was large enough to change the experience completely.
The rules stayed frozen
The strategy takes 50% UPRO plus 10% each in SPMO, VBR, DBMF, GLD and TLT when both SPY and a TIPS canary sit above their 200-day averages plus a 0.1% band. When either gate fails, it drops UPRO and holds 20% in each of the 5 diversifiers.
We preserved those rules and used the same NAV series the strategy page reports, so every figure below reconciles with what a subscriber sees there. The price builder uses real ETFs where available and documented proxy chains before fund inception; managed futures bind the start date.
Every 5-year start
There were 160 completed monthly starts. The strategy's 5-year CAGR ranged from 12.1% to 31.7%, with a median of 21.1%. It beat SPY in 93.1% of lump-sum windows.
Monthly contributions changed the comparison only slightly. Golden Ratio beat SPY in 91.9% of 5-year DCA windows. A saver who began near a difficult switch sequence could still trail a plain index for the full 5 years.
| Horizon | Starts | CAGR range | Median CAGR | Beat SPY, lump | Beat SPY, DCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 160 | 12.1% to 31.7% | 21.1% | 93.1% | 91.9% |
| 10 years | 100 | 14.1% to 25.7% | 21.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
The 10-year result looks much steadier. Every completed start beat SPY for both lump sum and monthly DCA, and the weakest strategy window still compounded at 14.1%.
Those 100 starts overlap heavily. Neighboring starts share almost the entire decade, and the whole sample comes from one 18.3-year era. The 100% figure describes this historical record rather than 100 independent trials.
All rolling figures below are computed from the same daily series the strategy page reports, sampled at month-end, so they reconcile with the page up to tiny convention differences.
The drawdown view
The full daily backtest reached a -37.3% max drawdown. Rolling 5-year month-end drawdowns ranged from -25.3% to -5.6%. The difference comes partly from sampling month-end NAV inside each rolling table, which can miss an intramonth low, and partly from start dates that sidestep 2008 entirely.
Start date also decides whether an investor meets the 2008 crash immediately, enters after it, or begins near the 2020 and 2022 switches. A headline drawdown taken from the full history tells the worst point. It says little about when a specific investor encountered it.
A favorable result with a short clock
The rolling table supports the strategy across the available history. It also puts the 19.9% headline in context. A real 5-year investor could have earned 12.1% or 31.7% from the same unchanged rules, and the difference between those two lives is nothing but the calendar.
The remaining uncertainty is time. The test begins during the global financial crisis and ends during a strong US equity and gold period, and the pre-2019 managed-futures sleeve rests on a documented proxy chain rather than a live fund. Another inflation cycle, a long managed-futures slump or a different equity leadership regime can widen the range beyond anything in this table.
The full rules and current signal are on Golden Ratio Dual Gate. The original construction, including the 2013 gate failure, is covered in the related article.
Related: The Golden Ratio Dual Gate, In Full.