200-Day SMA Trend
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). Backtest max drawdown: -25.0%.
Strategy & methodology
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL).
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- Not recorded. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (1)
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). Backtest max drawdown: -25.0%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version bd3b9ae8, published 2026-10-01
Is 200-Day SMA Trend still working in 2026?
200-Day SMA Trend returned 4.43% over the trailing 12 months and 46.76% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 10.60%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -25.03%. The full sample contains 9003 daily NAV observations from 1990-12-31. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -1.72% below its high-water mark of 2026-08-13, 2 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.2 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 4.43% | Not annualized | -8.88% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 46.76% | Not annualized | -10.04% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 3565.80% | 10.60% | -25.03% | 9003 | 1990-12-31 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-08-13, 2 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -1.72% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.2 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
200-Day SMA Trend at a glance
200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1990-12-31 to 2026-10-01 (35.8 years): 10.6% CAGR, 1.02 Sharpe, -25.0% max drawdown, 12.6% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Moderate
- Period
- 1990-12-31 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 10.6%
- Sharpe
- 1.02
- Max Drawdown
- -25.0%
- Volatility
- 12.6%
200-Day SMA Trend — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.
200-Day SMA Trend: frequently asked questions
- What is 200-Day SMA Trend?
- A single asset held while its month-end close is above its 200-day moving average, otherwise T-bills (BIL). The simplest trend-following rule and the classic benchmark tactical strategies try to beat, kept deliberately unoptimized: no lookback tuning, no multi-asset selection.
- Who created the 200-Day SMA Trend strategy?
- 200-Day SMA Trend was developed by Meb Faber.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of 200-Day SMA Trend?
- Backtested from 1990-12-31 to 2026-10-01, 200-Day SMA Trend returned 10.6% CAGR with a -25.0% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.02. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is 200-Day SMA Trend rebalanced?
- 200-Day SMA Trend is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is 200-Day SMA Trend a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. 200-Day SMA Trend is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1990-12-31 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | 200-Day SMA Trend |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.6% |
| Max Drawdown | -25.0% |
| Sharpe | 1.02 |
| Sortino | 1.69 |
| Volatility | 12.6% |
| Calmar | 0.42 |
| Total Return | 3565.8% |
| Backtest Period | 35.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- moderate
- Variants
- 6
- Author
- Meb Faber
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding 200-Day SMA Trend alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
Track 200-Day SMA Trend in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.
Related strategies
Related research
- TAA Scoreboard September 2026: Model Portfolios and 99 Strategies, Month to 1-YearOur 3 tracked model portfolios lead the post: the conservative blend did -3.1% in September 2026 (+0.1% YTD). Then the full board of 99 published TAA strategies, with the month, year-to-date and 1-year return side by side, because the long view is the one that counts. YTD leaders, the leveraged corner, and the month's best and worst.
- Is that Sharpe real? Inside the Robustness scoreEvery strategy on BestFolio carries a Robustness score: the probability its Sharpe is a real edge rather than the luckiest pick among the 202 variants we tested, released or not. Here's how it works, which of our own strategies it flags, and why every score just dropped a notch.
- DCA Into a Leveraged ETF: The Return Path Matters More Than the AverageRegular contributions helped a synthetic 2x S&P 500 position across long historical windows, but they never removed sequence risk. In 5,000 block-resampled 15-year paths, the leveraged route still trailed 24.74% of the time.