Permanent Portfolio
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL. Current signal: Mixed. Backtest max drawdown: -17.6%.
Current allocation
Permanent Portfolio Static
- Holding period
- Data cutoff
- Next review
Based on research by Harry Browne · Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe InvestingPublished Sep 1999all-weatherBestFolio's independent implementation, not affiliated with or endorsed by the original author.
About this Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Strategy Rules
- 1Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL
- 2Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD
- 3If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation
- 4If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash)
Asset Universe
4 instruments this strategy can hold
Key Differentiators
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Frequency
- monthly
- Next Rebalance
- Nov 209:30 ET (31d)
- Variants
- 2
- Risk Category
- conservative
- Regime
- Mixed
- Signal Date
- 2026-09-30
- Tags
- all-weather
- Type
- Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)
- Trading Frequency
- Monthly (last trading day)
- Rebalancing
- Full portfolio rebalance each month
- Universe Size
- 4 assets (SPY, TLT, GLD, BIL)
- Allocation Method
- Equal weight 25% per asset class
- Tactical Variant
- Optional 200-day SMA filter on risky assets (SPY, TLT, GLD)
- Cash Mechanism
- Tactical variant: assets below 200-day SMA → allocation moved to BIL
- Data Source
- Institutional-grade market data
Asset Classes
Strategy & methodology
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL; Tactical variant: apply 200-day SMA filter to SPY, TLT, and GLD; If risky asset is above its 200-day SMA → hold the 25% allocation; If below 200-day SMA → shift that 25% to BIL (cash).
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 1999-09; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01. Latest signal 2026-09-30.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (2)
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Static variant: 25% SPY + 25% TLT + 25% GLD + 25% BIL. Current signal: Mixed. Backtest max drawdown: -17.6%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach, current signal and allocation, and interactive backtest views on this page. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page.
- Customer action
- Place any required trades in your own brokerage at the next open on Oct 1, 2026. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
- Freshness
- Signal data cutoff Sep 30, 2026 close.
- Next expected action
- Next review Nov 2, 2026 at the open (09:30 ET). Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version e28bce54, published 2026-10-01
Is Permanent Portfolio still working in 2026?
Permanent Portfolio returned 4.70% over the trailing 12 months and 49.72% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 7.55%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -17.58%. The full sample contains 16854 daily NAV observations from 1961-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -5.17% below its high-water mark of 2026-01-29, 8 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.2 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 4.70% | Not annualized | -6.99% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 49.72% | Not annualized | -6.99% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 11712.53% | 7.55% | -17.58% | 16854 | 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-01-29, 8 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -5.17% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.2 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Permanent Portfolio at a glance
Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Harry Browne across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, T-Bills/Cash, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (65.6 years): 7.5% CAGR, 1.12 Sharpe, -17.6% max drawdown, 5.3% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 7.5%
- Sharpe
- 1.12
- Max Drawdown
- -17.6%
- Volatility
- 5.3%
Permanent Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne, is a classic all-weather allocation that divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash. An optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA trend filter to the three risky assets (stocks, bonds, gold), shifting any below-trend allocation to cash for additional downside protection.
Permanent Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio?
- Classic four-quadrant allocation: 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Designed to perform in any economic environment. Optional tactical variant applies a 200-day SMA filter to shift below-trend assets to cash. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio was developed by Harry Browne. It is based on Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01, Permanent Portfolio returned 7.5% CAGR with a -17.6% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.12. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 7.5% |
| Max Drawdown | -17.6% |
| Sharpe | 1.12 |
| Sortino | 2.12 |
| Volatility | 5.3% |
| Calmar | 0.43 |
| Total Return | 11712.5% |
| Backtest Period | 65.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Source
- Browne, H. (1999). Fail-Safe Investing
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- T-Bills/Cash
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Permanent Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
Track Permanent Portfolio in Your Portfolio
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