Permanent Portfolio (Static)
Allocate 25% to SPY (prosperity asset). Allocate 25% to TLT (deflation asset). Allocate 25% to GLD (inflation asset). Backtest max drawdown: -18.4%.
Strategy & methodology
Allocate 25% to SPY (prosperity asset); Allocate 25% to TLT (deflation asset); Allocate 25% to GLD (inflation asset); Allocate 25% to SHY (recession/cash asset); Rebalance annually or when drift exceeds threshold.
- Strategy type:
- Fixed allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Annual
- Original publication:
- 1999-09; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (3)
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SHY: VFISX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Allocate 25% to SPY (prosperity asset). Allocate 25% to TLT (deflation asset). Allocate 25% to GLD (inflation asset). Backtest max drawdown: -18.4%. This is a fixed-allocation portfolio. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The annual signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 3b8ef4ad, published 2026-10-01
Is Permanent Portfolio (Static) still working in 2026?
Permanent Portfolio (Static) returned 4.43% over the trailing 12 months and 50.96% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 8.52%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -18.41%. The full sample contains 12207 daily NAV observations from 1978-12-29. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -6.24% below its high-water mark of 2026-03-02, 7 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.3 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 4.43% | Not annualized | -7.73% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 50.96% | Not annualized | -7.73% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 4861.10% | 8.52% | -18.41% | 12207 | 1978-12-29 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-03-02, 7 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -6.24% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.3 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Permanent Portfolio (Static) at a glance
Permanent Portfolio (Static) is a fixed-allocation portfolio by Harry Browne across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, Short-Term Treasuries, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1978-12-29 to 2026-10-01 (47.8 years): 8.5% CAGR, 1.10 Sharpe, -18.4% max drawdown, 6.4% volatility.
- Type
- Fixed Allocation
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Rebalancing
- Annual
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1978-12-29 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 8.5%
- Sharpe
- 1.10
- Max Drawdown
- -18.4%
- Volatility
- 6.4%
Permanent Portfolio (Static) — Fixed Allocation Portfolio
The static Permanent Portfolio by Harry Browne divides the portfolio equally (25% each) across four asset classes designed for four economic states: stocks (prosperity), long-term bonds (deflation), gold (inflation), and cash (recession). Pure static version with annual rebalancing, no trend following or SMA filters.
Permanent Portfolio (Static): frequently asked questions
- What is Permanent Portfolio (Static)?
- Classic 4x25% allocation: stocks, long bonds, gold, and cash. Covers prosperity, deflation, inflation, and recession.
- Who created the Permanent Portfolio (Static) strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio (Static) was developed by Harry Browne. It is based on Browne, H. Fail-Safe Investing (1999).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Permanent Portfolio (Static)?
- Backtested from 1978-12-29 to 2026-10-01, Permanent Portfolio (Static) returned 8.5% CAGR with a -18.4% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.10. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Permanent Portfolio (Static) rebalanced?
- Permanent Portfolio (Static) is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Permanent Portfolio (Static) a fixed or tactical strategy?
- Permanent Portfolio (Static) is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.
Backtest Performance (1978-12-29 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Permanent Portfolio (Static) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.5% |
| Max Drawdown | -18.4% |
| Sharpe | 1.10 |
| Sortino | 2.15 |
| Volatility | 6.4% |
| Calmar | 0.46 |
| Total Return | 4861.1% |
| Backtest Period | 47.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Fixed / Strategic
- Rebalancing
- annual
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Harry Browne
- Source
- Browne, H. Fail-Safe Investing (1999)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- Short-Term Treasuries
Categories
Further reading
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