All Weather (Dalio)
Allocate 30% to SPY (S&P 500). Allocate 40% to TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds). Allocate 15% to IEI (3-7 Year Treasury Bonds). Backtest max drawdown: -22.1%.
Strategy & methodology
Allocate 30% to SPY (S&P 500); Allocate 40% to TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds); Allocate 15% to IEI (3-7 Year Treasury Bonds); Allocate 7.5% to GLD (Gold); Allocate 7.5% to DBC (Broad Commodities); Rebalance annually or when drift exceeds…
- Strategy type:
- Fixed allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Annual
- Original publication:
- 2012-01; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (3)
- IEI: IEF x0.7 before Jan 11, 2007
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Allocate 30% to SPY (S&P 500). Allocate 40% to TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds). Allocate 15% to IEI (3-7 Year Treasury Bonds). Backtest max drawdown: -22.1%. This is a fixed-allocation portfolio. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The annual signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version 5b3df7cd, published 2026-10-01
Is All Weather (Dalio) still working in 2026?
All Weather (Dalio) returned 5.15% over the trailing 12 months and 37.16% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 8.43%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -22.08%. The full sample contains 14030 daily NAV observations from 1971-12-31. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -2.96% below its high-water mark of 2026-08-27, 35 days ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 3.5 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 5.15% | Not annualized | -4.51% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 37.16% | Not annualized | -6.40% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 8284.69% | 8.43% | -22.08% | 14030 | 1971-12-31 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-08-27, 35 days before 2026-10-01, and it is -2.96% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 3.5 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
All Weather (Dalio) at a glance
All Weather (Dalio) is a fixed-allocation portfolio by Ray Dalio across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Intermediate Treasuries, Gold, rebalanced annual. Backtested 1971-12-31 to 2026-10-01 (54.8 years): 8.4% CAGR, 1.06 Sharpe, -22.1% max drawdown, 6.8% volatility.
- Type
- Fixed Allocation
- Author
- Ray Dalio
- Rebalancing
- Annual
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1971-12-31 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 8.4%
- Sharpe
- 1.06
- Max Drawdown
- -22.1%
- Volatility
- 6.8%
All Weather (Dalio) — Fixed Allocation Portfolio
The All Weather portfolio was designed by Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates to perform well across all economic environments. The core insight is risk parity: each economic regime should be equally balanced in terms of risk contribution. The 55% bond allocation provides the deflation/recession hedge, 30% equities cover growth, and 15% commodities (gold + broad) protect against inflation.
All Weather (Dalio): frequently asked questions
- What is All Weather (Dalio)?
- Designed for all economic seasons: 30% stocks, 55% bonds, 15% commodities. The retail version of Bridgewater's risk-parity approach.
- Who created the All Weather (Dalio) strategy?
- All Weather (Dalio) was developed by Ray Dalio. It is based on Dalio, R. / Bridgewater Associates. The All Weather Story (2012).
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of All Weather (Dalio)?
- Backtested from 1971-12-31 to 2026-10-01, All Weather (Dalio) returned 8.4% CAGR with a -22.1% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.06. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is All Weather (Dalio) rebalanced?
- All Weather (Dalio) is rebalanced annual. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is All Weather (Dalio) a fixed or tactical strategy?
- All Weather (Dalio) is a fixed-allocation (strategic) portfolio: it holds a set allocation and rebalances on schedule rather than rotating based on market signals.
Backtest Performance (1971-12-31 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | All Weather (Dalio) |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.4% |
| Max Drawdown | -22.1% |
| Sharpe | 1.06 |
| Sortino | 1.87 |
| Volatility | 6.8% |
| Calmar | 0.38 |
| Total Return | 8284.7% |
| Backtest Period | 54.8 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Fixed / Strategic
- Rebalancing
- annual
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Ray Dalio
- Source
- Dalio, R. / Bridgewater Associates. The All Weather Story (2012)
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Intermediate Treasuries
- Gold
- Commodities
Categories
Further reading
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