SPY observed max drawdown: 50.8%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF. From its 2007-10-31 peak, SPY fell 50.8% to the 2009-02-28 trough and needed 4.4 years to make a new high (2012-03-31). Computed from 405 months of observed fund history. Fund inception boundary (first available fund observation): 1993-01-29; the monthly analysis runs from 1993-01-31 through 2026-09-30.
Before 1993-01-29, the extended history is simulated. Observed fund drawdowns come first; simulation assumptions and results are separated below.
What is SPY's observed maximum drawdown?
SPY's observed maximum drawdown was 50.8%, from a peak in 2007-10-31 to a trough in 2009-02-28, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 1993-01-29. The sample contains 405 monthly observations through 2026-09-30. Monthly closes can miss deeper daily losses.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Maximum drawdown | -50.8% |
| Peak | 2007-10-31 |
| Trough | 2009-02-28 |
| Recovered | 2012-03-31 |
| Monthly observations | 405 |
Last verified
What is SPY's observed maximum drawdown?
SPY's observed maximum drawdown was 50.8%, from a peak in 2007-10-31 to a trough in 2009-02-28, based on monthly closes from fund prices first observed on 1993-01-29.
How long did SPY take to recover from its worst drawdown?
SPY took 4.4 years from the 2007-10-31 peak to make a new high in 2012-03-31, based only on observed fund prices.
What was SPY's worst 12-month return?
SPY's worst observed rolling 12-month return was -43.4%, in the 12 months ending 2009-02-28.
SPY observed fund drawdown statistics
2007-10-31 peak to 2009-02-28 trough.
New high reached 2012-03-31.
Share of all months spent below a prior high.
Rolling year ending 2009-02-28.
The biggest SPY drawdowns in observed fund history
| Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Peak to trough | Total underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50.8% | 2007-10-31 | 2009-02-28 | 2012-03-31 | 16 mo | 4.4 years |
| -44.7% | 2000-08-31 | 2002-09-30 | 2006-11-30 | 25 mo | 6.3 years |
| -23.9% | 2021-12-31 | 2022-09-30 | 2023-12-31 | 9 mo | 2.0 years |
| -19.4% | 2019-12-31 | 2020-03-31 | 2020-07-31 | 3 mo | 7 months |
| -15.3% | 1998-06-30 | 1998-08-31 | 1998-11-30 | 2 mo | 5 months |
Methodology: observed SPY fund prices only, first available from 1993-01-29. Monthly closing-price statistics cover 1993-01-31 through 2026-09-30; no proxy or pre-inception simulation is included in this table. Educational information, not investment advice.
Before 1993-01-29: simulated from the underlying index with assumptions
This separate series combines observed prices with a modeled pre-inception extension from 1970-01-31 through 2026-10-31. The 2026-10-31 endpoint is the legacy current partial-month bucket/month-end label, not evidence that SPY was observed through that future date. It is not observed SPY performance. The API's observed boundary is 1993-01-29; observed monthly statistics run from 1993-01-31 through 2026-09-30.
- Rebalancing convention: monthly rebalance at month-end close; drawdown statistics use monthly closing prices.
- Proxy source for SPY: VFINX (proxy_etf), from 1987-01-06 to 1993-01-28.
- Proxy source for SPY: SP500_TR_DAILY (static), from 1976-08-31 to 1987-01-05.
- Proxy source for SPY: spy_tr (static_monthly), from 1900-01-31 to 1976-08-30.
Modeled extended statistics
2007-10-31 peak to 2009-02-28 trough.
New high reached 2012-03-31.
Share of all months spent below a prior high.
Rolling year ending 2009-02-28.
Modeled extended drawdowns
| Depth | Peak | Trough | Recovered | Peak to trough | Total underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50.8% | 2007-10-31 | 2009-02-28 | 2012-03-31 | 16 mo | 4.4 years |
| -44.7% | 2000-08-31 | 2002-09-30 | 2006-11-30 | 25 mo | 6.3 years |
| -42.7% | 1972-12-31 | 1974-09-30 | 1976-06-30 | 21 mo | 3.5 years |
| -29.8% | 1987-08-31 | 1987-11-30 | 1989-05-31 | 3 mo | 21 months |
| -23.9% | 2021-12-31 | 2022-09-30 | 2023-12-31 | 9 mo | 2.0 years |
Monthly closing prices, peak-to-trough on total return where available. The pre-inception segment is a reconstruction, not a live fund record, and actual tracking, financing, taxes, spreads, and volatility drag can differ.
Drawdowns are the reason tactical strategies exist
Buy-and-hold SPY means living through every number on this page. BestFolio tracks published TAA strategies whose whole job is cutting these drawdowns, with out-of-sample track records.