Tactical Permanent Portfolio
Start with 25% SPY, 25% TLT, 25% GLD, 25% BIL. Compute 12-month total return for SPY, TLT, and GLD. Backtest max drawdown: -10.9%.
Strategy & methodology
Start with 25% SPY, 25% TLT, 25% GLD, 25% BIL; Compute 12-month total return for SPY, TLT, and GLD; BIL always keeps its 25% allocation; For each risky asset: if 12m return > 0 → hold at 25%; if < 0 → shift to BIL.
- Strategy type:
- Tactical asset allocation
- Rebalance frequency:
- Monthly
- Original publication:
- 2012-08-27; results after that are out-of-sample for the original research. All results are backtest simulations.
- Data through:
- Backtest data through 2026-10-01.
Simulated history
Stand-in funds and until when (2)
- TLT: VUSTX before Jul 26, 2002
- SPY: VFINX before Jan 29, 1993
Before these dates the backtest uses a stand-in, not the fund itself, so the results over those stretches show how the rules would have behaved, not what the fund returned.
Research data and disclosures
Start with 25% SPY, 25% TLT, 25% GLD, 25% BIL. Compute 12-month total return for SPY, TLT, and GLD. Backtest max drawdown: -10.9%. This is a tactical asset allocation strategy. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. Users review the published signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. Displayed returns remain hypothetical and do not represent a customer's brokerage record. The facts above show how current the data is.
- BestFolio supplies
- The monthly signal email and this strategy page; current signals and email alerts require Pro access.
- Customer action
- Review the published signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- Backtests are net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled. No tax, no slippage beyond the stated cost. Methodology limitations
Published result: Engine drift-until-flip-v1, data version d697c7d5, published 2026-10-01
Is Tactical Permanent Portfolio still working in 2026?
Tactical Permanent Portfolio returned 6.11% over the trailing 12 months and 43.61% over 36 months through 2026-10-01, compared with a full-backtest annualized return of 7.98%. Its full-backtest maximum drawdown was -10.89%. The full sample contains 16854 daily NAV observations from 1961-02-28. These are model results, not investor account returns or a promise. As of 2026-10-01 it is -3.68% below its high-water mark of 2026-01-29, 8 months ago, and its longest run below a previous high was 2.9 years. Recent returns do not establish that the strategy will keep working.
| Period | Return | CAGR | Max drawdown | Observations | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing 12 months | 6.11% | Not annualized | -6.99% | 252 | 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01 |
| Trailing 36 months | 43.61% | Not annualized | -6.99% | 754 | 2023-09-29 to 2026-10-01 |
| Full backtest | 15263.29% | 7.98% | -10.89% | 16854 | 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01 |
Last verified
Common questions about these results
Are these live investor returns?
No. These are the latest model NAV results from the published backtest. A recent date alone does not make a result an independently observed live record. Investor costs, taxes and execution can differ.
Why can a strategy lag for a year?
A tactical model can hold defensive assets during a rally or change positions during reversals. A short window can differ substantially from its full history. Compare cumulative returns over matching dates and inspect drawdowns as well.
How long has it spent below a previous high?
Its last high-water mark was 2026-01-29, 8 months before 2026-10-01, and it is -3.68% below that level now. The longest run below a previous high in the full backtest was 2.9 years. Recovering from a drawdown can take years, and a strong trailing return does not mean a past high has been regained.
Where can I check the signals behind these results?
The Signals tab on this page lists each dated model decision for the selected variant; for Pro strategies they are visible to Pro members. The methodology page explains the backtest assumptions.
Tactical Permanent Portfolio at a glance
Tactical Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Adam Butler (ReSolve) across US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, Cash (T-Bills), rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01 (65.6 years): 8.0% CAGR, 1.43 Sharpe, -10.9% max drawdown, 4.5% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Adam Butler (ReSolve)
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Risk
- Conservative
- Period
- 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01
- CAGR
- 8.0%
- Sharpe
- 1.43
- Max Drawdown
- -10.9%
- Volatility
- 4.5%
Tactical Permanent Portfolio — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Adam Butler's Tactical Permanent Portfolio adds a momentum overlay to Harry Browne's classic Permanent Portfolio. The base allocation is 25% each in SPY, TLT, GLD, and BIL. The tactical layer checks each risky asset's 12-month return; if negative, that 25% slice shifts to BIL. In the worst case, the portfolio becomes 100% BIL.
Tactical Permanent Portfolio: frequently asked questions
- What is Tactical Permanent Portfolio?
- Tactical overlay on the classic 25/25/25/25 Permanent Portfolio. Assets with negative 12-month returns are replaced by cash, adding momentum-based protection while preserving the core all-weather structure. Monthly rebalancing.
- Who created the Tactical Permanent Portfolio strategy?
- Tactical Permanent Portfolio was developed by Adam Butler (ReSolve). It is based on Butler, A. (ReSolve Asset Management). Tactical Permanent Portfolio.
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Tactical Permanent Portfolio?
- Backtested from 1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01, Tactical Permanent Portfolio returned 8.0% CAGR with a -10.9% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.43. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Tactical Permanent Portfolio rebalanced?
- Tactical Permanent Portfolio is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Tactical Permanent Portfolio a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Tactical Permanent Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1961-02-28 to 2026-10-01)
| Metric | Tactical Permanent Portfolio |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.0% |
| Max Drawdown | -10.9% |
| Sharpe | 1.43 |
| Sortino | 3.06 |
| Volatility | 4.5% |
| Calmar | 0.73 |
| Total Return | 15263.3% |
| Backtest Period | 65.6 years |
Every rebalance fills at the signal-day close, net of modeled transaction costs. Followers trade at the next open; the delayed-close line in the Rebalance Frequency Sensitivity card shows the effect of trading one session later. Execution assumption
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Risk Level
- conservative
- Variants
- 1
- Author
- Adam Butler (ReSolve)
- Source
- Butler, A. (ReSolve Asset Management). Tactical Permanent Portfolio
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- Long-Term Treasuries
- Gold
- Cash (T-Bills)
Categories
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
Holding Tactical Permanent Portfolio alongside another strategy? Use the free portfolio overlap calculator to see how much of the two portfolios actually differs.
Track Tactical Permanent Portfolio in Your Portfolio
Sign up for BestFolio to get monthly rebalancing signals, blend strategies into custom portfolios, and receive alerts when allocations change.