Predicting US Treasury Returns

Predicting US Treasury Returns is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-17. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2020-06-19 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence

Monthly

Backtest data through

2026-08-17

History boundary

The recorded 2020-06-19 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.

Rule / approach

1. Compute 4 z-scored signals from ETF returns (120-month rolling window) 2. Bond trend is binary (+1/-1); other 3 are continuous z-scores clipped to [-1, +1] 3. Average all 4 signals; map to continuous bond allocation: (avg + 1) / 2 4.…

BestFolio supplies

the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access

Customer action

Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.

Costs and exclusions

net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled

Freshness

The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-17. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.

Next expected action

First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.