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Faber's 12-Month High Switch

Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-17. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2019-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.

Cadence
Monthly
Backtest data through
2026-08-17
History boundary
The recorded 2019-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
Rule / approach
1. For each of 5 assets: check if current price >= 95% of its 12-month high 2. Passing assets get 20% allocation each 3. Unallocated portion: Dynamic Bond test on IEF 4. If IEF passes → allocate remainder to IEF; else → BIL (cash)
BestFolio supplies
the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
Customer action
Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
Costs and exclusions
net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
Freshness
The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-17. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
Next expected action
First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.

Faber's 12-Month High Switch at a glance

Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber across US Equity, International Equity, REITs, Gold, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17 (40.3 years): 8.4% CAGR, 1.20 Sharpe, -13.6% max drawdown, 7.4% volatility.

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Author
Meb Faber
Rebalancing
Monthly
Period
1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17
CAGR
8.4%
Sharpe
1.20
Max Drawdown
-13.6%
Volatility
7.4%

Faber's 12-Month High Switch Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

Meb Faber's 12-Month High Switch checks whether each of 5 risky assets (SPY, EFA, VNQ, GLD, PDBC) is trading within 5% of its 12-month high. Assets that pass are held at 20% each; the remainder goes to bonds. The Dynamic Bond variant applies the same test to IEF: if IEF also fails, the defensive allocation shifts to cash (BIL) instead, protecting against simultaneous stock/bond declines.

Faber's 12-Month High Switch: frequently asked questions

What is Faber's 12-Month High Switch?
Hold risky assets within 5% of their 12-month high; shift remainder to bonds or cash (Dynamic Bond).
Who created the Faber's 12-Month High Switch strategy?
Faber's 12-Month High Switch was developed by Meb Faber. It is based on Faber, M. (2006). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Dynamic Bond variant per major TAA trackers..
What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Faber's 12-Month High Switch?
Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17, Faber's 12-Month High Switch returned 8.4% CAGR with a -13.6% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.20. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How often is Faber's 12-Month High Switch rebalanced?
Faber's 12-Month High Switch is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
Is Faber's 12-Month High Switch a tactical asset allocation strategy?
Yes. Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.

Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17)

MetricFaber's 12-Month High Switch
CAGR8.4%
Max Drawdown-13.6%
Sharpe1.20
Sortino1.93
Volatility7.4%
Calmar0.62
Total Return2476.2%
Backtest Period40.3 years

Strategy Details

Type
Tactical (TAA)
Rebalancing
monthly
Variants
2
Author
Meb Faber
Source
Faber, M. (2006). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Dynamic Bond variant per major TAA trackers.

Asset Classes

  • US Equity
  • International Equity
  • REITs
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Treasuries
  • T-Bills

Further reading

New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.

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