Faber's 12-Month High Switch
Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation strategy reviewed on a monthly cadence. Its hypothetical backtest runs through 2026-08-17. BestFolio supplies the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access. The recorded 2019-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical. Users review each scheduled signal and place any resulting trades in their own brokerage. BestFolio does not execute trades or provide personalized investment advice.
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Backtest data through
- 2026-08-17
- History boundary
- The recorded 2019-11-04 publication or construction boundary separates pre-publication simulation from later market observations under fixed rules; all returns remain hypothetical.
- Rule / approach
- 1. For each of 5 assets: check if current price >= 95% of its 12-month high 2. Passing assets get 20% allocation each 3. Unallocated portion: Dynamic Bond test on IEF 4. If IEF passes → allocate remainder to IEF; else → BIL (cash)
- BestFolio supplies
- the public rule or approach and backtest context; current signals, allocations, and paid interactive data remain restricted to Pro access
- Customer action
- Review each scheduled signal and place any required trades in your own brokerage; BestFolio does not execute orders.
- Costs and exclusions
- net of a modeled one-way transaction cost (10 bps, scaled up to 3x under stress); taxes, fund-expense drift, or market impact are not modeled
- Freshness
- The latest available backtest ends 2026-08-17. A run timestamp is not exposed here, so no stronger freshness claim is made.
- Next expected action
- First trading day of September; scheduled 2026-09-01 at 09:30 ET. Review the published signal before placing any trade.
Faber's 12-Month High Switch at a glance
Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy by Meb Faber across US Equity, International Equity, REITs, Gold, rebalanced monthly. Backtested 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17 (40.3 years): 8.4% CAGR, 1.20 Sharpe, -13.6% max drawdown, 7.4% volatility.
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Rebalancing
- Monthly
- Period
- 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17
- CAGR
- 8.4%
- Sharpe
- 1.20
- Max Drawdown
- -13.6%
- Volatility
- 7.4%
Faber's 12-Month High Switch — Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy
Meb Faber's 12-Month High Switch checks whether each of 5 risky assets (SPY, EFA, VNQ, GLD, PDBC) is trading within 5% of its 12-month high. Assets that pass are held at 20% each; the remainder goes to bonds. The Dynamic Bond variant applies the same test to IEF: if IEF also fails, the defensive allocation shifts to cash (BIL) instead, protecting against simultaneous stock/bond declines.
Faber's 12-Month High Switch: frequently asked questions
- What is Faber's 12-Month High Switch?
- Hold risky assets within 5% of their 12-month high; shift remainder to bonds or cash (Dynamic Bond).
- Who created the Faber's 12-Month High Switch strategy?
- Faber's 12-Month High Switch was developed by Meb Faber. It is based on Faber, M. (2006). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Dynamic Bond variant per major TAA trackers..
- What is the historical return and maximum drawdown of Faber's 12-Month High Switch?
- Backtested from 1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17, Faber's 12-Month High Switch returned 8.4% CAGR with a -13.6% maximum drawdown and a Sharpe ratio of 1.20. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- How often is Faber's 12-Month High Switch rebalanced?
- Faber's 12-Month High Switch is rebalanced monthly. BestFolio publishes the updated allocation signal each period.
- Is Faber's 12-Month High Switch a tactical asset allocation strategy?
- Yes. Faber's 12-Month High Switch is a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy: it adjusts its holdings based on market signals each period rather than holding a fixed allocation.
Backtest Performance (1986-02-28 to 2026-08-17)
| Metric | Faber's 12-Month High Switch |
|---|---|
| CAGR | 8.4% |
| Max Drawdown | -13.6% |
| Sharpe | 1.20 |
| Sortino | 1.93 |
| Volatility | 7.4% |
| Calmar | 0.62 |
| Total Return | 2476.2% |
| Backtest Period | 40.3 years |
Strategy Details
- Type
- Tactical (TAA)
- Rebalancing
- monthly
- Variants
- 2
- Author
- Meb Faber
- Source
- Faber, M. (2006). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Dynamic Bond variant per major TAA trackers.
Asset Classes
- US Equity
- International Equity
- REITs
- Gold
- Commodities
- Treasuries
- T-Bills
Further reading
New to this approach? Read what tactical asset allocation is and how it works.
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